South China/West Philippine Sea

[tk421]

Interesting times indeed, as the PH is planning to finally bring the case to international court.

 

http://www.malaya.com.ph/index.php/news/national/1599-sue-with-or-without-china

 

I wonder how this will play out.

[tk421]

We'll see... if that ever happens, then we would have exposed how uncivilized China is. I doubt China would want that to happen. After all they've been trying to convince the world all these years how vastly superior their culture is. But interesting...

 

From the article:

 

”The whole world knows that China has myriad more ships and aircraft than the Philippines. At day’s end, however, we hope to demonstrate that international law would be the great equalizer.”

[tk421]

Probably not, because China doesn't follow international laws unless it suits them.

[tk421]

Actually, I think you do have a point. Our society is so uneven right now that we need a drastic change to get us out of the gutter that we are in now. However, that doesn't automatically mean that we'll come out the better of it.

 

In any case, this trial would at least prove, once and for all, who is in the right. It's scary, but fascinating at the same time.

[Bugatti Veyron]

Probably not, because China doesn't follow international laws unless it suits them.

 

China now enjoys the respect of the rest of the world. To continue to enjoy that respect it must adhere to internatonal laws and decisions lest it be considered a pariah in the international community. I don't think China is willing to rock the boat insofar as its dealings with the west and the rest of the world.

 

Sure it can afford to be belligerent especially towards countries it doesn't respect such as the Philippines. But as soon as international condemnation is directed towards China, I think it will tow the line lest it lose the respect of the rest of the international community.

 

I think China still tries to maintain its prestige as one of the great nations on earth. The last thing it needs or wants is an erosion in that prestige. Hence the need to respect international laws and decisions.

 

Sure it may flex its muscle from time to time to show the world that it's a power to be reckoned with. But ultimately, it doesn't want to lose the status quo especially at this time that it has become an extremely wealthy nation.

Edited January 27, 2013 by Bugatti Veyron

[tk421]

China also knows how to bend the rules.

 

All they have to do is say that the Scarborough shoal and the Spratly's are domestic problems.

[Bugatti Veyron]

I'm not sure if people are aware of the fact that Facebook is restricted in China. My cousin, who works in Shanghai, says she cannot access her FB account while she's in China. Several years ago, on a trip to Shanghai, I was watching CNN in my hotel room. This was the time China was cracking down on dissent in Tibet. CNN was reporting the Chinese crackdown when lo and behold, the tv screen went blank!! CNN then went back on the air after a couple of minutes.

 

That's the extent that the Chinese government will resort to in order to control what the Chinese people are allowed and not allowed to hear. Ang tindi ng censorship sa China.

[heatseeker0714]

Captain will be fired and then some, somebody will get promoted.

 

Sure thing... A career ender for the CO of the ship... First he'll be assigned to a shore based post then get sh1t-canned in about 6 months to 1 year... A lot of US Navy CO have been fired for a lot less...

[sonnyt111]

China now enjoys the respect of the rest of the world. To continue to enjoy that respect it must adhere to internatonal laws and decisions lest it be considered a pariah in the international community. I don't think China is willing to rock the boat insofar as its dealings with the west and the rest of the world.

 

Sure it can afford to be belligerent especially towards countries it doesn't respect such as the Philippines. But as soon as international condemnation is directed towards China, I think it will tow the line lest it lose the respect of the rest of the international community.

 

I think China still tries to maintain its prestige as one of the great nations on earth. The last thing it needs or wants is an erosion in that prestige. Hence the need to respect international laws and decisions.

 

Sure it may flex its muscle from time to time to show the world that it's a power to be reckoned with. But ultimately, it doesn't want to lose the status quo especially at this time that it has become an extremely wealthy nation.

 

I tend to agree with this point of view. China has so far towed the line. Indicating it doesn't want to resort to brute force at least for now. It has a lot to lose if it miscalculates the reaction of the world.

[tk421]

But China has also shown that it tends to ignore UN/International laws when it suits them. They may not get into an all out war, but they'll sure use force and intimidation to get what they want.

[dungeonbaby]

The question is, will China honor the international court's verdict if it doesn't go in China's favor?

 

well, as a permanent member of the UN security council, they can veto any resolution the UN takes. yes?

[dungeonbaby]

Yes, and if this happens, the resolution would not be passed. However, paragraph 3 of Article 27 of the United Nations Charter states that "Decisions of the Security Council on all other matters shall be made by an affirmative vote of nine members including the concurring votes of the permanent members; provided that, in decisions under Chapter VI, and under paragraph 3 of Article 52, a party to a dispute shall abstain from voting."

 

 

 

true, they abstain from voting but, as i understand it, after having abstained they can still veto the resolution. maybe an expert can weigh in.

[airport-noo]

The thing is China doesn't adhere to international laws. A perfect example is the UNCLOS which the Chinese don't recognize. I'd rather call it grudging respect since China has been pushing its weight around. As far as the ASEAN, Japan, South Korea and India are concerned, China is an Asian pariah.

They want to use UNCLOS in their dispute with Japan though. The tricky thing about UNCLOS is that it allows countries to ratify it upon signing. In China's case they've made it clear in 2006 that disputes on ownership of land are outside the scope of UNCLOS. Instead they want to use UNCLOS in their argument that whole sea is an extension of their continental shelf. As opposed to RP and Japan who argue the less greedy 200-mile EEZ provision of UNCLOS. China will have a hard time proving their case since they they don't own the entire continental land mass.

[airport-noo]

Looks like China will reject arbitration. *shrugs* That was expected anyway. Their 9-dash line is the most irrational among the existing claims.

[sonnyt111]

You have a point here. The ASEAN hasn't taken a common stand regarding Scarborough Shoal. I'm no expert in geo-politics so I will defer to this article. In this article, it states that Cambodia's main concern when it comes to relations with China is the bilateral trade between these two nations. This is the reason why Cambodia is hesitant to make a stand on the Scarborough Shoal because being a party to the common stand may severely affect its economy. I also think this is the primary reason why the other ASEAN member nations are hesitant to make a stand against China. I'm not exactly sure to what extent each member nation's economy is dependent or tied to China but China may have a big part of each nation's economy based on the hesitation of the ASEAN member nations to make a common stand.

 

 

http://www.gmanetwor...pratlys-dispute

 

As for the ASEAN allies going to war with China, I don't think it would be practical as China would decimate each nation's army.

 

Yes you hit the nail on the head. When all is said and done, a nation's self interest will always prevail over any alliances it may have. Really, why should Singapore or even Cambodia bother itself by embroiling itself in a mess between China and the Philippines? They have enough problems of their own, many of which may be related to trade with China. Even Philippine exports to China were jeopardized back then. Remember those bananas we exported to China which it refused to accept during heightened tensions several months ago? I don't know if China has since softened its stand towards Philippine exports.

 

Similarly, if ever Malaysia and Indonesia, for example, got into a spat with China, I doubt very much if the Philippines will be willing to go out on a limb and get involved in these countries' problems. The Philippines has enough problems of its own and by getting embroiled in any dispute between Malaysia and China, the Philippines only gains the further enmity of China.

 

So I really doubt if a united front by ASEAN against China insofar as the disputed territories are concerned will ever become a reality because a nation's self interest will always take precedence over that of its alliances. Alliances are good as long as a country benfits from that alliance. An alliance will be ignored or placed on the back burner if the country doesn't benefit from it or if it risks losing something valuable.

 

It's funny how I first called for a united diplomatic front by ASEAN against China at the beginning of these discussions. Now, after thouroughly discussing it, exchanging ideas, and analyzing the situation more carefully, I have since reversed my original call for a united diplomatic front. I now realize this is a futile endeavor. It's like wishful thinking.

 

This is just my opinion, though. Others may look at things differently.