South China/West Philippine Sea

[Larry]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2014/01/china-ships-enter-waters-off-disputed-islands-201411275619353616.html

 

China ships enter waters off disputed islands

Japanese defence minister says country cannot overlook "repeated incursions" by Chinese vessels into disputed waters.

 

Japan's defence minister has vowed to defend the country's territory after three Chinese government ships entered disputed waters off Tokyo-controlled islands in the East China Sea.

 

The Chinese coastguard vessels sailed at about 8:30am local time on Sunday (23:30 GMT on Saturday) into territorial waters off one of the Senkaku islands, which China also claims and calls the Diaoyus, Japan's coastguard said.

 

The ships left less than two hours later.

 

"We can never overlook repeated incursions into territorial waters," Japanese Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera told reporters.

"We need to make diplomatic efforts on one hand. We also want to firmly defend our country's territorial sea and land with the self-defence forces cooperating with the coastguard," he said.

 

Chinese state-owned ships and aircraft approach the disputed islands from time to time in an effort to demonstrate Beijing's territorial claims, especially after Japan nationalised some of the islands in September 2012.

 

Sunday marked the first time Chinese ships were spotted there since December 29, when three coastguard ships entered the zone and stayed for about three hours, Japanese officials said.

 

Japanese coastguard patrol boats have tried to chase Chinese vessels away, fuelling tensions that some fear could spiral into an armed clash. Japan's conservative Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has vowed no compromise on the sovereignty of the islands and recently announced a boost in military spending.

 

Tensions were heightened in recent months after Beijing announced an air defence identification zone covering a large swathe of the East China Sea, including the disputed islands.

 

----

 

well looks like China is an equal opportunity bully.

 

They're doing to Japan what they did to us in the Scarborough shoal. I won't be surprised if they erect structures off that rock in the near future.

 

Let's see what Japan does, and if they have a bite to go along with that bark

[tk421]

Isn't it strategically unsound to open up multiple fronts? What if West and South China Sea tensions blow up all at the same time? How would China defend against that? Then they also have their own internal problem in the East.

[Larry]

well they're technically not engaging yet, more of a feeling out phase for them.

 

it looks like they have a deadline where they have to square up their new settlements by such and such date. I'm not sure when that is though, or if it's a deadline for what.

[dos8dos]

Japan holds military drill as S. China Sea islands dispute widens

 

http://rt.com/files/news/21/cf/b0/00/2.jpg

Edited January 13, 2014 by dos8dos

[Bugatti Veyron]

http://www.aljazeera...5619353616.html

 

China ships enter waters off disputed islands

Japanese defence minister says country cannot overlook "repeated incursions" by Chinese vessels into disputed waters.

 

Japan's defence minister has vowed to defend the country's territory after three Chinese government ships entered disputed waters off Tokyo-controlled islands in the East China Sea.

 

The Chinese coastguard vessels sailed at about 8:30am local time on Sunday (23:30 GMT on Saturday) into territorial waters off one of the Senkaku islands, which China also claims and calls the Diaoyus, Japan's coastguard said.

 

The ships left less than two hours later.

 

"We can never overlook repeated incursions into territorial waters," Japanese Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera told reporters.

"We need to make diplomatic efforts on one hand. We also want to firmly defend our country's territorial sea and land with the self-defence forces cooperating with the coastguard," he said.

 

Chinese state-owned ships and aircraft approach the disputed islands from time to time in an effort to demonstrate Beijing's territorial claims, especially after Japan nationalised some of the islands in September 2012.

 

Sunday marked the first time Chinese ships were spotted there since December 29, when three coastguard ships entered the zone and stayed for about three hours, Japanese officials said.

 

Japanese coastguard patrol boats have tried to chase Chinese vessels away, fuelling tensions that some fear could spiral into an armed clash. Japan's conservative Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has vowed no compromise on the sovereignty of the islands and recently announced a boost in military spending.

 

Tensions were heightened in recent months after Beijing announced an air defence identification zone covering a large swathe of the East China Sea, including the disputed islands.

 

----

 

well looks like China is an equal opportunity bully.

 

They're doing to Japan what they did to us in the Scarborough shoal. I won't be surprised if they erect structures off that rock in the near future.

 

Let's see what Japan does, and if they have a bite to go along with that bark

And to think Japan was the big bully about 70 years ago. China (especially Nanjing) was brutalized by the Japanese back then.

[oscartamaguchiblackface]

And to think Japan was the big bully about 70 years ago. China (especially Nanjing) was brutalized by the Japanese back then.

 

 

And this makes me think, who will the bully be 70 years from now?

[Larry]

And this makes me think, who will the bully be 70 years from now?

 

 

well we all know the answer to that.

 

China Set to Seize South China Sea Island by Force

 

Beijing claims island “illegally occupied” by the Philippines

 

Reports out of Chinese state media indicate that Beijing is set to invade an island in the South China Sea “illegally occupied” by US ally the Philippines, stoking concerns that the tension filled region could explode.

 

Relying on US support, the Philippines is so arrogant as to announce in the New Year that it will increase its navy and air force deployment at Zhongye Island, a Chinese island that it has illegally occupied for years.

 

It will be an intolerable insult to China

 

According to experts, the Chinese navy has drawn a detailed combat plan to seize the island and the battle will be restricted within the South China Sea.

 

The report goes on to state that the “battle” will not include a Chinese invasion of Filipino territories, although the Philippines will undoubtedly view Beijing’s attack on Zhongye Island as precisely that since it has been occupied by Filipino troops for over 40 years.

 

“Of course, claims that “battle will be restricted” are nothing but taunting and should China launch an offensive here, we suspect the already dry and brittle tinder box in the South (and East) China Sea could rapidly escalate,” reports Zero Hedge.

 

 

The report arrives hot on the heels of Japan’s announcement that it will “nationalize” around 280 islands in the disputed region, the latest shot across the bow in a tit-for-tat build up that experts have warned heralds the beginning of a new cold war.

 

China’s latest act of aggression arrives after months of military posturing and bellicose rhetoric.

 

In October, China sent a surveillance ship to Hawaiian waters for the very first time in an unprecedented move which was described as a provocative retaliation to the U.S. naval presence in the East China Sea.

 

A lengthy editorial which appeared in Chinese state media last month explained how the Chinese military’s current reformation process was part of a move by President Xi Jinping to prepare the People’s Liberation Army for war in response to US aggression in the Asia Pacific, developments which have prompted “major changes” in China’s national security situation.

 

Strident rhetoric about Beijing’s ability to attack US military bases in the Western Pacific, as well as the release of a map showing the locations of major U.S. cities and how they would be impacted by a nuclear strike launched from the PLA’s strategic submarine force also turned heads.

 

Following discussion in state media about plans to to turn the moon into a Star Wars-style “death star” from which the PLA could launch missiles against any target on Earth, a display to promote China’s Jade Rabbit Moon rover also included a background photograph of a mushroom cloud over Europe.

 

http://www.infowars.com/china-set-to-seize-south-china-sea-island-by-force/ sourced directly from Source: qianzhan.com “Sudden major move of Chinese troops this year to recover Zhongye Island by force

[Ryuji_tanaka]

This is very bothering:

 

Japan Plans To "Nationalize" 280 More "Ownership-Unknown" Islands

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-08/japan-plans-nationalize-280-more-ownership-unknown-islands

 

 

China Plans To Seize South China Sea Island From Philippines, Says "Battle Will Be Restricted"

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-12/china-plans-seize-south-china-sea-island-philippines-says-battle-will-be-restricted

 

Why is this not being picked up by the Phillipine media? Pag nagkaroon ng invasion ng China sa Spratlys or a Japan-China war, maiipit tayo.

[Larry]

This is very bothering:

 

Japan Plans To "Nationalize" 280 More "Ownership-Unknown" Islands

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-08/japan-plans-nationalize-280-more-ownership-unknown-islands

 

 

China Plans To Seize South China Sea Island From Philippines, Says "Battle Will Be Restricted"

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-12/china-plans-seize-south-china-sea-island-philippines-says-battle-will-be-restricted

 

Why is this not being picked up by the Phillipine media? Pag nagkaroon ng invasion ng China sa Spratlys or a Japan-China war, maiipit tayo.

 

philstar ran an article on this just the other day

[Larry]

MDT or not

 

The US will spring to action should sh1t hit the fan.

 

It can't risk a huge shift in power in the region.

 

But make no mistake, they won't do it for the safety of the Philippines.

[tk421]

In my opinion and to answer your question, yes it is. I mean after all, there is a strong historical tie between RP and the US. If worse comes to worst, RP can always invoke the MDT and the US will enforce it.

 

 

What is the American concept of "face"?

 

MDT doesn't cover disputed territories, I think.

 

Call me pessimistic, but based on past actions, the Philippine government nor the international community won't be able to do anything about this if China does take Pag-asa by force.

 

The most likely scenario would be that China will surround the Pag-Asa island, land heavily armed troops there and our forces would... surrender peacefully.

 

All these will happen before we can send our reinforcements through. But they would have set up a blockage even before the main invasion.

 

Again, I would be extremely happy to be proven wrong.

 

If we're really serious about defending our claims there. It should be right now. But sadly, that is not happening. We're much more interested with Kris Aquino being 'celibate' (BS, btw).

[dungeonbaby]

In my opinion and to answer your question, yes it is. I mean after all, there is a strong historical tie between RP and the US. If worse comes to worst, RP will invoke it and the US will enforce it.

 

 

What is the American concept of "face"?

 

at the moment, America is weakened and is generally seen to have lost face in the world, its own citizens saying the same in surveys, its frenemies flouting red lines, sanctions, and whatnot.

 

is its decreased standing enough to completely wipe out its belief in american exceptionalism? probably not. the US will likely come to our aid, as it has done in the past. but it'll need a good old moral imperative to take up the cudgels for us, such as China behaving really, really badly.

 

China's smart enough to know not to do anything so drastic it'll be indefensible. so it'll creep up on us, get us used to relinquishing control over our own islands, our own waters. next thing you know, when we take a dip in the Lingayen Gulf, we'll be illegally entering Chinese territory.

[fatchubs]

The Philippines can't handle China one on one. We can always invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty. When push comes to shove, the US will always come to the aid of its former colony. Of course, this is my opinion.

 

Its like little bro taking on a fight with someone and when its time to rumble he suddenly calls big bro for resbak

 

IMHO the US will always look at its interest first before anything else in making a decision. That will decide the kind of "aid" we are to receive.

 

US aid / support may not come in the form of being there physically with us in case of war ...

[Larry]

what I really want to find out, is the end game to all of this.

 

what does china look to achieve, they're doing fine without these islands, and it doesn't seem worth it to me to test the resolve of the US by continuously pushing its buttons.

 

I mean they know an all out war with the US is a conflict they can't hope to win, not at this time at least, so why keep playing with the tiger's tail? and very aggressively at that.

[dos8dos]

^in case people here havent noticed a new cold war is happening in our midst

 

china is egaging USA in shadow boxing by directly engaging its neighbors in asserting its interest in the region. people expect america will automatically engage china in behalf of its allies is totally a defunct presumption

Edited January 15, 2014 by dos8dos

[dungeonbaby]

 

IMHO the US will always look at its interest first before anything else in making a decision. That will decide the kind of "aid" we are to receive.

 

 

in your opinion, just what self interest did it serve when it (government and private sector) sent billions of dollars in aid for Yolanda?

[Larry]

I think China is taking a risk by doing these taunting actions and if they can get away with bloody murder, they will continue doing it and, I think, they will push the envelope as far as they can until the US says stop. As we speak, the US has the firepower and hardware to impose its will in the Southeast Asian region. China has only one carrier, the Liaoning, which will get taken out by a hunter-killer submarine. China will get routed in this theoretical Battle of South China Sea.

 

 

china has 1 carrier, that it doesn't know how to use.

 

anyway, agreed on what you posted, but to what end though?

 

it's a mystery to me

[dungeonbaby]

what I really want to find out, is the end game to all of this.

 

what does china look to achieve, they're doing fine without these islands, and it doesn't seem worth it to me to test the resolve of the US by continuously pushing its buttons.

 

I mean they know an all out war with the US is a conflict they can't hope to win, not at this time at least, so why keep playing with the tiger's tail? and very aggressively at that.

 

they're not really doing that well, it seems. they are facing a massive shortage of food and, if you watch the financial channels and look at what they are investing in, are taking measures to address this.

 

add the energy-rich spratlys in the mix...and you've got a big, drooling behemoth at our doorstep.

 

they might not want to get into a conflict with the US at this time, but they also see that the US is losing its position in the world. the end game? has the communist agenda ever stopped drumming in their hearts? this is one of those rare times i sort of agree with dos8dos.

 

...China has only one carrier, the Liaoning, which will get taken out by a hunter-killer submarine. China will get routed in this theoretical Battle of South China Sea.

 

is that carrier even functioning yet? it floats, yeah.

Edited January 15, 2014 by dungeonbaby

[Larry]

I believe it's functioning but I'm not exactly sure if it has already been deployed. It's a second-hand Soviet carrier.

 

hasn't been deployed, it just finished sea trials early this year.

 

sure they can deploy it, but they still wouldn't know how to use it effectively, i.e. in blue water ops as an effective force projection element. Something a US Carrier Group knows all too well, as it is the most efficient and effective force projection element in the world.

 

they're not really doing that well, it seems. they are facing a massive shortage of food and, if you watch the financial channels and look at what they are investing in, are taking measures to address this.

 

add the energy-rich spratlys in the mix...and you've got a big, drooling behemoth at our doorstep.

 

they might not want to get into a conflict with the US at this time, but they also see that the US is losing its position in the world. the end game? has the communist agenda ever stopped drumming in their hearts? this is one of those rare times i sort of agree with dos8dos

 

lol yeah about the food shortage, they're already making knock off eggs, which is one of the craziest things I've ever heard of, fake eggs. But for a country that counterfeits everything (even entire villages and communities) it's not that too big of a stretch.

 

I don't think the spratly's has enough to power China for a long time. and besides that, they were after those rocks for a long time now, even when they were booming.

 

Spreading socialist agenda, is just a little too short sighted, I mean there's a lot of other ways to do that. And as for taking advantage of the US decline, well they already have the US by its financial balls.

Edited January 15, 2014 by Larry

[heatseeker0714]

It'll be hard for us to invoke the MDT if the Chinks take Pag-asa because as the US have already stated more than a couple of times, they don't take sides on sovereignty disputes, ergo, the KIG.

 

If however the Chinks do take out a Philippine Government owned aircraft or vessel, then that's a different scenario, Philippine troops, well, not bad enough.

 

Question is, will the Yanks come in time... With their population's "Sawa" for war, they can drag their feet in helping us, which the Chinks obviously know and will take advantage of...

 

Haven't you guys noticed their explicit statement that NO FILIPINO TERRITORY will be taken? that's a clear signal to the US that only the "DISPUTED" islands will be targeted and that they have nothing against the mainland Philippines. which gives the US the confidence to drag their feet in coming to our aid...

 

Besides, don't trust the US too much... Sila nga numero unong promotor nung BJE (Blow Job ek-ek) Bangsamoro Juridicial Entity MOA-AD nung kapampangang klepto... Mas gugustuhin ng Kano na magkahatihati tayo because it'll be a lot easier for them to deal with the Bangsamoro Elders to have their bases there than to deal with the 2 chambers of the Philippine Congress...

 

Realpolitik my dear friends... Realpolitik...

Edited January 15, 2014 by heatseeker0714

[fatchubs]

in your opinion, just what self interest did it serve when it (government and private sector) sent billions of dollars in aid for Yolanda?

 

 

First and foremost just to clarify ....did the US really sent BILLIONS of DOLLARS in aid to our Yolanda victims already?

 

 

 

I wouldn't want to second guess what "self interest" it did serve the US when they donated. So let me answer your question this way, in general countries and various private sector donated to the victims of Yolanda because they wanted to help. But are we definitely sure that "self interest" was never a factor when they did it? Some companies donated their budget for their Christmas party to the Yolanda victims but why not a bigger amount than that since they can afford it anyway given that they earned good profits for the year? Some companies donated as part of their CSR but knowingly that this will bring them media mileage or whatever benefits. Maybe there were politicians out there too who donated relief goods in plastic bags with their names printed during times of calamities. Surely they just wanted to give aid don't they?

In Uncle Sam's case, in your opinion, can the US afford NOT to donate in aid for Yolanda even if donating was against their will? Well IMHO I don't think so. Just imagine what will the international community say to them or the 'IMAGE" they would be projecting. In fact even if they decided that they really wanted to help or donate can they afford to just donate a "token amount" say like a million dollars or should they go all out say to the point of funding the rehab program for the victims? What do you think came across their minds when they make these decisions? Did they not consider their "interest" when making said decisions? Your guess/opinion is good as mine.

I think same goes when deciding whether or not to give assistance and determining what kind of assistance will be given to us when we talk about the MDT.

[Larry]

Sadly, I agree with you. The fight for the Spratlys will be the Philippines alone unless the main Phil. Islands are also attacked. Especially under this President, there will be some spin about that of course and remember we do owe too much already. As a veteran of the Iraq and Afghan wars I think you all think too much of your own importance especially since we are tired of fighting on behalf of somebody whose worth, value and quality is questionable for various reasons (the Phils. did run us out of Subic and leave the US coalition in Iraq at the time when the fighting was heavy.) As a Pilipino I will not like that but it is as it is and thus lament the loss.

 

 

I disagree with half of this.

 

Yes the spratly's will be lost, indefinitely, to the Philippines. Should China take it by force, the US and the rest of the UN can only watch at the onset of this event.

 

But the international community will not take this sitting down. A China that is allowed to take whatever it wants without fear of repercussion, will be a very dangerous country. It's also a great excuse to go to war.

 

BUT should the international community retake those rocks, the chance of it being returned to the Philippines is almost zero. For one thing it's not just China that lays claim to it, so it will be some sort of literally floating un-ownable piece of earth, whose ownership will be decided on by the powers that be.

 

So whatever happens we will lose those islands. The only way out of it, that I can see, is to aggressively stake a claim on those islands and have an international court rule on it within 2014.

 

Again the US won't rush to our aid because it wants to protect us, it has interests that supersede our own safety.

[boibastos]

In my opinion, these guys are just pushing the envelope as far as it can. In the vernacular "tignan natin kung hangang san kakayanin." China will most definitely get routed. I'm not even sure if it can outgun Japan which, if I'm not mistaken, has military hardware that is only one or two generations older than the US.

 

I don't know about that, man. China's military is one of the biggest in the world and japan is hamstrung by its laws and international commitment from wwii to only maintain a self defense force. Plus, i think everyone that has any kind of electronic gadget would know that the chinese are not lacking in terms of manufacturing ability. It's kind of frightening to think how much weaponry they can produce if they shift to full war production.

 

If the chinese ever get to figure out how to effectively deploy that military of theirs overseas, the asian region will, to put it mildly, will have a bit of a problem. That aircraft carrier of theirs is a step in that direction.

[dungeonbaby]

emphasis mine:

 

First and foremost just to clarify ....did the US really sent BILLIONS of DOLLARS in aid to our Yolanda victims already?

 

I wouldn't want to second guess what "self interest" it did serve the US when they donated. So let me answer your question this way, in general countries and various private sector donated to the victims of Yolanda because they wanted to help. But are we definitely sure that "self interest" was never a factor when they did it? Some companies donated their budget for their Christmas party to the Yolanda victims but why not a bigger amount than that since they can afford it anyway given that they earned good profits for the year? Some companies donated as part of their CSR but knowingly that this will bring them media mileage or whatever benefits. Maybe there were politicians out there too who donated relief goods in plastic bags with their names printed during times of calamities. Surely they just wanted to give aid don't they?

In Uncle Sam's case, in your opinion, can the US afford NOT to donate in aid for Yolanda even if donating was against their will? Well IMHO I don't think so. Just imagine what will the international community say to them or the 'IMAGE" they would be projecting. In fact even if they decided that they really wanted to help or donate can they afford to just donate a "token amount" say like a million dollars or should they go all out say to the point of funding the rehab program for the victims? What do you think came across their minds when they make these decisions? Did they not consider their "interest" when making said decisions? Your guess/opinion is good as mine.

I think same goes when deciding whether or not to give assistance and determining what kind of assistance will be given to us when we talk about the MDT.

 

in other words, by your own reckoning, self-interest was not likely the only motivation to provide aid.

 

losing face was not likely to be the primary motivator. i say that in light of the sheer volume, and the type of aid we received from the US, at a time when that country is economically vulnerable. how much does it cost to bring a carrier and all that equipment over? how much does it cost to bring all that manpower over - including fuel, personnel cost? what kind of aid was received? what millions did the private sector send? if it was just worried about losing face, the US could have easily scaled down its efforts and still been deemed a decent nation. but that's not the point.

 

the point was to establish how certain you were that self-interest is always the first concern. and to point out... that if the main motivation during the Yolanda relief efforts was the desire to help, and we got that much aid, then a self-serving interest (pick one among the many that have been outlined on this thread such as access to the energy-rich spratlys) would logically lead to the MDT definitely being honored (with a physical presence).

Edited January 15, 2014 by dungeonbaby

[boibastos]

Yes, China's military is one of the biggest in terms of infantry. After all, they are the most populous nation on earth. But in terms of technology, they may be years or decades even from the US. China may have the advantage in manpower but in terms of firepower and technology, the US takes the cake. If I'm not mistaken, Japan is forbidden to be the aggressor but can only defend itself from aggression as per its Constitution.

 

In my opinion, the Asian region will have a problem if the military technology of China is at par or at least close with that of the US. If China closes the gap in terms of the technology and firepower of US hardware, then even the US will have a problem.

 

By the way, China's carrier is a second-hand, late 80s Soviet carrier which was refurbished by the Chinese navy. If it were to go against a US super carrier, which has a battle group, the hunter-killer submarines of this battle group will sink it easily. That is if the F-18s on the super carrier don't get to it first.

 

No argument there about that carrier or that the chinese military tech may not be at par with that of the US now. But remember, the chinese are already throwing their weight around in its asian maritime disputes even without new war toys. And notice that uncle sam's naval battlegroups are nowhere in sight. Doesn't really inspire confidence that the US and its justice league friends will throw down the next time china wants to build a hotel for its soldiers in the disputed islands.