South China/West Philippine Sea

[boibastos]

it's crazy how goddamn close we are to a full blown nuclear conflict. in 1947 the doomsday clock was at 8 minutes to midnight, it went to an all time low of 17 minutes at the end of the cold war. Right now we're at 5 minutes.

 

and to think this BS should have stopped by the end of the cold war.

 

Too much bad blood. Too many nations want resources that are already dwindling. Some are already thinking to expand their economic region if not their actual borders. I think time is running out on the five mins we have left.

 

Hope it doesn't happen in our lifetime, but i honestly think given the world situation it's a question of when rather than an if.

[sonnyt111]

Haha! I suggest that you put him in your ignore list.

 

Consider him in my ignore list as well. I've had enough of this guy. Should have done this a long time ago

[sonnyt111]

The chinese are apparently stronger economically and militarily now than they were during W's time so maybe it's more of the timing than the latter's policies that kept them relatively quiet. I agree that the chinese are pushing to see what they can get away with before the US threatens to bring out the stick. But my concern is they can get away with a whole lot where we are concerned as we have next to nothing to defend our interests in our dispute with them.

 

I suppose the question is, at what point will the US act and what will they do? Say for example, a huge deposit of oil is found in the area we are claiming and the chinese start building structures and sending people to secure/exploit it. The chinese have never listened to our bitching about how this should be settled by maritime law, doubt they'll listen to us then. Will the US then send its military and risk a shooting war, or will they just allow the chinese to benefit at our expense?

This is a very good question. One that remains to be seen.

[sonnyt111]

I agree with you that the Chinese are stronger economically and militarily than during W's time but that fact notwithstanding, the Chinese military would need a prayer to actually beat its US counterpart.

 

To answer your question and in my opinion, the US will intervene as a last resort should the Chinese push it further by sinking ships and shooting down planes in its self-proclaimed "no fly" zone. One international incident would be enough, in my opinion, to make the US deploy a super carrier in the area where the incident took place.

 

 

IMO you are right. Agreed. It just takes one major international incident like sinking a Japanese, Philippine, or South Korean ship that could make the US intervene. The Chinese need to be extremely careful lest they miscalculate and reap the whirlwind.

[sonnyt111]

IMO

 

it's in the best interests of the US to intervene.

 

1) they can't allow China to just move in by force and do what it wants. It sets a precedent and tips the balance towards the Chinese. They can't risk having a fast growing superpower like that move unchecked. It makes china stronger and bolder, as it weakens US influence in the region.

 

2) the promise of oil in that area will bring the Americans as it always had anywhere else in the world. It's better for them to have that oil controlled by a friendly (i.e. us) and sold back to them at a cheap price (or they could control it and sell it to us at a cheap price) than have a potential rival have control over that and use it to strengthen their own position. Again it will only serve China and weaken the US position.

 

Take note though, that US action doesn't automatically mean a shooting war. It can take the form of international pressure, or diplomatic sanctions, or just the threat of a carrier strike group a few miles away from your coastline (they can deploy two and can easily have at least 2 more at the ready). Just look at what they did at that ADIZ in the east china sea, china moves to stake a claim, the US says "f#&k you, I double dare you to back up that claim" and flies two planes unannounced and unchallenged.

 

China has to realize that we're no longer in the 1800s where unclaimed lands can be easily claimed without upsetting the global status quo.

Excellent analysis as usual bro Larry.

[sonnyt111]

if this gets into an actual shooting war with China

 

it won't be limited to just the region, that's almost a guarantee.

 

the arabs will get wind of this, and china will look to cooperate with them, escalate things in the mediterranean and in Afghanistan.

 

Russia joins because Syria is in it, and a China beat down by the US is something they can't allow, that's too much power for any one nation, and the US would be right next door, annexing resources as close siberia. Politically they won't have a choice. Although probably at the start Russia will fight via proxy i.e. terrorist groups cold war style, but they will have to join in sometime. It would just be too much for putin to handle for America to theoretically own two of the biggest land masses in the world.

 

If it becomes a full on war between china and the US, this won't be a brushfire conflict like what we see in the middle east. The stakes are too high, and the participants too powerful for the rest of the world not to be engulfed.

 

The scary thing is it only takes one shot to escalate the situation into something that can't be stopped.

Suddenly that Stuxnet malware seems pretty attractive if it can target Chinese industries that are geared for war.

Edited January 16, 2014 by sonnyt111

[sonnyt111]

Ok. Let's say it's a WWIII scenario with the main event in the South China Sea theater. The Russians will have to deal with NATO from the West, Pakistan and India will cancel each other out, Israel will take care of Syria and I really think the Israelis have the firepower to beat the Syrians to submission. In the main event, which will be in the South China Sea theater, China and Nokor are left to fend for themselves as the ASEAN, Japan, Sokor and the US punish them to submission. If worse comes to worst and China goes nuclear, that will be the end of China and Nokor. I absolutely won't discount the possibility of the Chinese nuking Manila and other major Philippine cities.

They could also nuke Tokyo and Seoul for that matter. But I believe the use of nukes will be a last alternative on all sides. Hopefully it will never ever come to this.

[sonnyt111]

I bet that the second china declares war, nokor'll have at least five divisions over the dmz with more on the way. This is assuming they don't launch nukes as a first strike. If they immediately bring nukes into play, nothing is going to be left of the south to invade or defend.

 

The russians would play. That's for sure. But which side is a question mark. They're neighbors with china. It'll be tempting on their part to slice pieces of it for themselves especially if things don't go well for china in a conventional war. They'll definitely make a play for some of the former soviet republics nearby.

 

Doubt the US and their allies can launch attacks or troops from india as those guys and the pakis will probably be smacking each other around when the bell goes up. Makes more sense for them to use japan, taiwan and us as staging bases.

Oh yeah I forgot, North Korea is led by a madman who may not exhaust all avenues for a shot at peace. He may conduct a first nuclear strike against South Korea if China were to go to war. The way he's been talking lately, it's as if he's just dying to attack the South.

[Bugatti Veyron]

Yes, they could but China won't risk annihilating their neighbors because if they do, they'd get annihilated by multiple nuclear strikes from the US.

We're back to square one. Mutually Assured Destruction. Something I thought was a thing of the past. No wonder the Doomsday Clock has been advanced significantly since the USSR disintegrated in 1991

[Bugatti Veyron]

a direct conflict between china and the US would draw lines in the sand

 

NATO automatically goes with the US

Syria, Iran, et. al. will go China, Russia probably will too

NoKor will go Chinese

Pakistan will go Chinese

India will go where Pakistan isn't

 

so yeah it might lead to a global conflict. Both China and the US (when they intervene) will have to maneouver this gingerly. Both countries know the consequences of going nuclear. But some of the allied countries might not care. Pakistan and India for instance, those two have just been chomping at the bit for a reason to launch. Something as big as this might be it.

Pakistan and India both have nuclear weapons but, by some miracle, both have shown restrain in their use. They know fully well the repercussions of a full nuclear exchange. So if they know this, so does China.

 

The only one that I cannot be sure of is North Korea. Kim Jong On seems to be getting nuttier by the day. China probably recognizes the unpredictability/instability/irrational nature of their ally that they will probably tread more carefully, making sure they don't do anything to push Kim Jong On over the edge by doing something stupid. Like declaring war on the US and its allies which could be construed by the North Korean leader as a go signal to nuke South Korea.

Edited January 16, 2014 by Bugatti Veyron

[Bugatti Veyron]

we all need to PRAY should china & the US engage each other directly because of the possibility of an escalation short of a nuclear exchange is not remote, that will be ARMAGEDDON

 

both side will be cautious to get embroiled in this conflict to avert the unthinkable the sight of a mushroom cloud rising over each others horizon

 

it will be china pitted against US allies (eg japan, taiwan, philippines) with the US relegated to logistical support

 

MDT is often misconstrued as fighting an allies war, realistically its simply coming to aid an ally in case of an attack. under this circumstances (looming doom) US versus china the best thing to meet US obligation is to aid an ally logistically at first

 

this premise is limited in case of an armed conflict with the disputed islands alone

Armageddon over some disputed islands with vast quantities of crude underneath. Still, China is probably doing a cost-benefit analysis on whether the huge reservoir of oil and natural gas underneath the South China Sea/East Philippine Sea is worth getting into a shooting war with the US and its allies.

[maxiev]

Armageddon over some disputed islands with vast quantities of crude underneath. Still, China is probably doing a cost-benefit analysis on whether the huge reservoir of oil and natural gas underneath the South China Sea/East Philippine Sea is worth getting into a shooting war with the US and its allies.

It's been a while since China has been flexing its muscle. I would think that if it was going to use force to enforce its will upon its neighbors, it would have done so by now.

 

So far it hasn't happened yet. I pray it remains this way.

[maxiev]

the risk of armageddon far outweighs the benefit of maintaining national pride of their (US) regional allies' with this island dispute together with the purported mineral deposits

 

dont go way ahead pitting china & USA, its far fetch, both power will play this new cold war SMARTLY

One thing the US, Russian and even China have in common is the war on Islamic terror. There was a recent car bomb explosion in Beijing where a Filipino woman killed. The suspects are thought to be Islamic suicide bombers. Then there were the bombings of Sochi, Russia, venue of the upcoming winter Olympics.

 

http://edition.cnn.c...sion/index.html

 

Cooperation by the three nations to wipe out the scourge of Islamic terrorism may make all three realize that they have more in common than they imagine. Cooperation in stomping out terrorism may even help kindle some friendly ties between the three as they share information with one another. That's sure to generate some goodwill between the three.

 

Ok I may not be totally realistic about this but I'm still hopeful these three super powers can come together and somehow help one another rid the world of this modern day scourge.

[maxiev]

Pakistan and India both have nuclear weapons but, by some miracle, both have shown restrain in their use. They know fully well the repercussions of a full nuclear exchange. So if they know this, so does China.

 

The only one that I cannot be sure of is North Korea. Kim Jong On seems to be getting nuttier by the day. China probably recognizes the unpredictability/instability/irrational nature of their ally that they will probably tread more carefully, making sure they don't do anything to push Kim Jong On over the edge by doing something stupid. Like declaring war on the US and its allies which could be construed by the North Korean leader as a go signal to nuke South Korea.

If China knows any better, it should eliminate Kim Jon Un because his very presence near the disputed North Asian corridor is a recipe for an unimaginable carnage that the Chinese themselves aren't even banking on. For china's survival, it better do something about that North Korean ally who's going to be a threat to even the Chinese. Because North Korea is a loose cannon. Any nuclear attacks it may unleash against North East Asia including Japan, and South Korea may have China defending itself that it had nothing to do with actions perpetrated by North Korea/

[jacuzzi]

If China knows any better, it should eliminate Kim Jon Un because his very presence near the disputed North Asian corridor is a recipe for an unimaginable carnage that the Chinese themselves aren't even banking on. For china's survival, it better do something about that North Korean ally who's going to be a threat to even the Chinese. Because North Korea is a loose cannon. Any nuclear attacks it may unleash against North East Asia including Japan, and South Korea may have China defending itself that it had nothing to do with actions perpetrated by North Korea/

You mean that the technical issue of North Korean missile that keeps falling short of its target is going to pose a risk to nearby China. It is not hard to imagine for North Korea to launch a nuke missile strike to Japan but because of technical problems this lands on China located at the middle of the two countries.

[dos8dos]

Armageddon over some disputed islands with vast quantities of crude underneath. Still, China is probably doing a cost-benefit analysis on whether the huge reservoir of oil and natural gas underneath the South China Sea/East Philippine Sea is worth getting into a shooting war with the US and its allies.

 

again this is based on an assumption that an ammo shot at the japs is tantamount to an ammo shot at the US which will automatically drag the americans into the fray. this manner of thinking is at best flawed

 

the chinese are edging into a position that they can engage japan in a shooting war. the tell tale signs are there ADIZ, intrusions on the disputed islands. they also expect that the US will not intervene immediately because the japs are very much capable of defending themselves

 

japs vs china will be a good fight for the americans to observe, this goes to show that american initial participation in this conflict will be in the pretext of intelligence gathering. determinig actual chinese tactics will be a valuable information before they put their own boys into harms way

 

phil vs china will be a cakewalk. the only thing that the americans will watch out for is the mettle of the filipinos to fight a lopsided tilt. that will be their gauge whether its worth to entrust their high tech weapons to our soldiers in the future

[Larry]

Ok. Let's say it's a WWIII scenario with the main event in the South China Sea theater. The Russians will have to deal with NATO from the West, Pakistan and India will cancel each other out, Israel will take care of Syria and I really think the Israelis have the firepower to beat the Syrians to submission. In the main event, which will be in the South China Sea theater, China and Nokor are left to fend for themselves as the ASEAN, Japan, Sokor and the US punish them to submission. If worse comes to worst and China goes nuclear, that will be the end of China and Nokor. I absolutely won't discount the possibility of the Chinese nuking Manila and other major Philippine cities.

 

Russia moves east, at the same time reinforces china along siberia.

 

Russia will dare NATO to come into their heartland, or probably take the opportunity to re-occupy some lost states in the baltic. The fighting in europe will be hard, harder than before as the russians aren't easy to beat, and are absolutely bonkers when it comes to armed conflict.

 

Israel faces Syria and Iran, probably with Turkey and the KSA's help. Israel probably takes Syria but will face a roadblock with Iran who will have Libya, Egypt and Palestine (whatever's left anyway) on their side. Iran has nukes too.

 

China moves to take Japan, and slowly down Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand. These four will be subdued quickly and move the chinese front further down south. They will probably help Pakistan take India (or india take pakistan, whoever is aligned with whom) to take control of most of Asia. NoKor's obviously going to take the fight down south where they will be beat down, meanwhile Japan will be occupied with Russian forces from the North and Chinese forces from across the sea.

 

The US will be fighting on all fronts now, Europe, South East Asia, East Asia, the Middle East and the Mediterranean. They're excellent at fighting but this will take a toll on logistics and supply, should this happen the draft might be re-instated.

 

The nuclear option will be a last resort as always, because when one nation launches, then everybody launches (almost like a fight in a basketball game, throw the first punch and the rest of the bench follows). But China won't nuke the Philippines, as there would be no point in doing so. We're not that important in the grand scheme of things. Why waste a perfectly good warhead when you can use that against your real enemy, that's like using an AR-15 against an ant, a complete waste of ammo.

 

Like I've always said, it won't be China or the US who will launch the first nukes in this scenario, it will be some country like India or Pakistan who have always wanted to do it to each other, or NK who we know wants to do it regardless.

 

either way we're f#&ked regardless.

[maxiev]

You mean that the technical issue of North Korean missile that keeps falling short of its target is going to pose a risk to nearby China. It is not hard to imagine for North Korea to launch a nuke missile strike to Japan but because of technical problems this lands on China located at the middle of the two countries.

Actually, North Korea is in between China and Japan. China is to the west of the Korean peninsula while Japan is to the east.

[oscartamaguchiblackface]

Russia moves east, at the same time reinforces china along siberia.

 

Russia will dare NATO to come into their heartland, or probably take the opportunity to re-occupy some lost states in the baltic. The fighting in europe will be hard, harder than before as the russians aren't easy to beat, and are absolutely bonkers when it comes to armed conflict.

 

Israel faces Syria and Iran, probably with Turkey and the KSA's help. Israel probably takes Syria but will face a roadblock with Iran who will have Libya, Egypt and Palestine (whatever's left anyway) on their side. Iran has nukes too.

 

China moves to take Japan, and slowly down Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand. These four will be subdued quickly and move the chinese front further down south. They will probably help Pakistan take India (or india take pakistan, whoever is aligned with whom) to take control of most of Asia. NoKor's obviously going to take the fight down south where they will be beat down, meanwhile Japan will be occupied with Russian forces from the North and Chinese forces from across the sea.

 

The US will be fighting on all fronts now, Europe, South East Asia, East Asia, the Middle East and the Mediterranean. They're excellent at fighting but this will take a toll on logistics and supply, should this happen the draft might be re-instated.

 

The nuclear option will be a last resort as always, because when one nation launches, then everybody launches (almost like a fight in a basketball game, throw the first punch and the rest of the bench follows). But China won't nuke the Philippines, as there would be no point in doing so. We're not that important in the grand scheme of things. Why waste a perfectly good warhead when you can use that against your real enemy, that's like using an AR-15 against an ant, a complete waste of ammo.

 

Like I've always said, it won't be China or the US who will launch the first nukes in this scenario, it will be some country like India or Pakistan who have always wanted to do it to each other, or NK who we know wants to do it regardless.

 

either way we're f#&ked regardless.

So your scenario for WW3 is similar in nature to WW2 but using modern day weapons such as smart bombs rather than blockbusters. In terms of technology, do you think Russia is a match for the US? Not much is known about what's going on inside Russian military research labs unlike Americans who love to display their latest hardware. This is not to say that the Americans have an ace up their sleeve which remains top secret at this time.

 

Taking out Russia, NATO, Israel and the rest of the Middle East out of the equation, what do you think the US strategy will be like in a head to head war with China and North Korea? Because I am almost certain that if China decides to go to war, North Korea will definitely use this opportunity to attack the South.

 

Barring the use of nuclear weapons, how do you think this scenario will play out? Let's not even discuss the occupation by China of Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam. This is a purely South China Sea/East Philippine Sea affair. And probably a North Korea vs South Korea war.

 

Basically a naval/air force war since the prize is the oil/natural gas lying underneath the South China Sea/East Philippine Sea.

 

 

 

 

[Larry]

If this scenario comes into fruition, Russia will be hard-pressed to push back NATO westward as NATO will push hard eastward until they reach Moscow. For the US, just like Hitler's Germany, it will be difficult to fight a multiple front war as it will have to assist its allies in Europe, Asia and the Mideast, so my guess is that the US will assist its weaker allies, particularly, the ASEAN since NATO and Israel can win a war on their turfs, the European theater and Mideast theater, respectively. Fighting a multiple front war will stretch thin US resources so, I think, it will concentrate its resources where it is most needed and that is the South/Southeast Asian theater.

 

 

China can easily dominate the latter four but as for Japan, I'm not that sure since it has a US base in it, not to mention technology and hardware that is a match, if not better, than that of the Chinese and Russians. Remember, the Russians will have more than it can handle with NATO so stretching its resources to the Asian theater would be foolish.

 

That's why I think Russia won't try to move West and wait out NATO in Russia they'll reinforce borders in the Baltic or probably try and court the Ukraine to help stop a NATO eastern push. Given that it's going to be tough for NATO to get to Russia.

 

Japan will be in a bind, because in that hypothetical, they'll have 3 countries trying to k*ll them. NK, China and Russia from the North. They have the tech, but they don't have the numbers (the sdf isn't a full military) and like China haven't been in a real fight in 60 years. The US will be busy with China to give significant help in time.

 

Russia is a beast that stretches from Europe to Asia. It won't stretch them that far out to fight two fronts. Logistics would be a breeze and given the fact that they don't need diplomacy to cross borders because there are none, it can move faster than the rest. NATO has a lot of sweet talking to do to get to Russia. Meanwhile Russia is already taking care of business in Japan.

[Ryuji_tanaka]

That's why I think Russia won't try to move West and wait out NATO in Russia they'll reinforce borders in the Baltic or probably try and court the Ukraine to help stop a NATO eastern push. Given that it's going to be tough for NATO to get to Russia.

 

Japan will be in a bind, because in that hypothetical, they'll have 3 countries trying to k*ll them. NK, China and Russia from the North. They have the tech, but they don't have the numbers (the sdf isn't a full military) and like China haven't been in a real fight in 60 years. The US will be busy with China to give significant help in time.

 

Russia is a beast that stretches from Europe to Asia. It won't stretch them that far out to fight two fronts. Logistics would be a breeze and given the fact that they don't need diplomacy to cross borders because there are none, it can move faster than the rest. NATO has a lot of sweet talking to do to get to Russia. Meanwhile Russia is already taking care of business in Japan.

I think its going to be Russia on the European front, China on the Asian one, Egypt cutting off the Suez Canal, then ME turning into a free-for-all with RNBC weapons, Israel vs everyone else. South Am will look into this as a way to settle old scores with good Ol' Unca Sam.

 

Antarctica and Australia is starting to look attractive....

 

Same way the infighting for Uncle Fritz's chair turned into a World War.

Edited January 18, 2014 by Ryuji_tanaka

[maxiev]

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/17/when-china-threatens-filipinos-go-shopping-for-us.aspx

 

When China Threatens, Filipinos Go Shopping for U.S. Warships

 

By Rich Smith | More Articles | Save For Later

January 17, 2014 | Comments (16)

 

 

Uh-oh. It seems that the Japanese (and Taiwanese and Koreans) aren't the only folks getting nervous about the Chinese military buildup in the Pacific Ocean.

 

On Thursday, DefenseNews.com reported that over in the Philippines, continued incursions into territorial fishing waters have the local navy shopping for used U.S. warships to beef up its fleet. Over the past two years, the archipelagic nation has bought two refurbished American "frigates" for about $10 million apiece. Actually, the vessels, formerly named USCGC Hamilton and USCGC Dallas, and now BRP Gregorio del Pilar and BRP Ramon Alcaraz, respectively, were classified as Coast Guard cutters when in U.S. possession.

 

 

The Philippines' new flagship, the BRP Ramon Alcaraz. Source: Wikimedia Commons.

 

The threat

In recent months, Chinese naval vessels have been sailing into disputed waters off the Philippine coast, an area that Manila calls the West Philippine Sea but that China insists is really the South China Sea. Already, the increasing numbers of Chinese warships swarming the area have frightened off not just Philippine civilian fishing boats. The overwhelming force being deployed forced the Philippine Navy to back down and cede control of a fishing area known as the Scarborough Shoal to the Chinese.

 

Scarborough Shoal lies right off the coast of Luzon -- quite literally in the Philippines' backyard (if yards were wet). So you can see why the Filipinos are nervous.

 

Safety in numbers

At just 3,250 tons displacement and armed with only one cannon apiece (plus a mix of mostly defensive "chain" guns and machine guns), the new Filipino frigates aren't particularly frightening warships. But they are currently the biggest warships in the Philippine fleet. Plus, there's safety in numbers, and the more of them they get, the safer Filipinos will feel.

 

 

U.S. National Security Cutter Bertholf (WMSL-750). Source: Wikimedia Commons.

 

The Philippine Navy now intends to buy two more such frigates... and then two more after that... and then two more after that. Jumping at Secretary of State John Kerry's offer last December to provide the Philippines with $40 million in military assistance, the Philippine Navy says it has bid to buy two more U.S. frigates for its fleet within the next two years, and intends to round out its purchases at about eight vessels (including the two already bought). These will then join the nation's three corvettes, a handful of even smaller warships, in trying to fend off the Chinese threat.

 

All this spending should be good news for American shipbuilder Huntington Ingalls (NYSE: HII ) . Huntington built the "frigates" in question, and would be the logical company to tap to refurbish additional vessels prior to their transfer to the Philippines. Huntington is also the company that is building the new Legend-class National Security Cutters that are replacing them at the U.S. Coast Guard.

 

Result: Selling more frigates to the Philippines won't just make the Filipinos feel more secure. It should make a lot of Huntington Ingalls shareholders pretty happy as well.

 

 

 

 

Oh, and one more thing

Did we mention that Huntington pays its shareholders a tidy 0.8% dividend yield? Try getting your bank to pay you 0.8% interest these days! While they don't garner the notability of high-flying tech stocks, dividend-paying stocks like Huntington Ingalls are also less likely to crash and burn. And over the long term, the compounding effect of the quarterly payouts, as well as their growth, adds up faster than most investors imagine. With this in mind, our analysts sat down to identify the absolute best of the best when it comes to rock-solid dividend stocks, drawing up a list in this free report of nine that fit the bill. To discover the identities of these companies before the rest of the market catches on, you can download this valuable free report by simply clicking here now.

[Bugatti Veyron]

Here's the latest news regarding China's growing dominance in the South China/East Philippine Sea

 

http://news.yahoo.com/china-start-regular-patrols-island-south-china-sea-101705672--finance.html

 

China to start regular patrols from island in South China Seahttp://l.yimg.com/a/p/us/news/editorial/d/0c/d0c3eb8ca18907492a4b337b5cec5193.jpeg 4 hours ago

BEIJING (Reuters) - China will base a 5,000-tonne civilian patrol ship on one of the main islands it controls in the disputed South China Sea and begin regular patrols, an official newspaper said on Tuesday, a move likely to add fuel to territorial disputes with neighbors.

The China Ocean News, published by the State Oceanic Administration, said the ship would be based on Woody Island, which China calls Sansha city, on the Paracel Islands. China will "gradually establish a regular patrol system on Sansha city to jointly protect the country's maritime interests", the report added. It will continue to build infrastructure on the island as well as a "joint platform for sharing maritime security data", it said.

China is in an increasingly angry dispute with its neighbors over claims to parts of the potentially oil and gas-rich South China Sea. China lays claim to almost the whole of the sea, which is criss-crossed by crucial shipping lanes.

It upset the Philippines and the United States this month when rules went into force demanding fishing boats seek permission to enter waters under the jurisdiction of China's southern province of Hainan, an area the provincial government says covers much of the South China Sea.

Chinese patrols in the South China Sea are generally conducted by civilian vessels, though China's navy routinely carries out drills there, including late last year by the country's first aircraft carrier.

The newspaper did not say when the patrols would begin, though said one of their focuses would be on search and rescue operations and the "speedy, orderly and effective emergency response to sudden incidents at sea".

Separately, the Beijing Times newspaper said that China would build the world's largest maritime surveillance vessel, a 10,000-tonne ship that it said would be larger than an equivalent Japanese ship, currently the world's largest surveillance vessel.

The report did not say when the ship would enter service.

China formally approved the establishment of a military garrison in Sansha two years ago. Sansha administers the mostly uninhabited islands in the South China Sea which China claims.

China took full control of the Paracels - a cluster of close to 40 islets, outcrops and reefs - in 1974 after a naval showdown with the then South Vietnam, and there have been incidents ever since. Taiwan also claims the Paracels.

Vietnam has accused China of harassing and even opening fire on fishing boats near the Paracels, charges Beijing has either denied or defended as a legitimate means of protecting its sovereignty.

Vietnam, Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines also claim other parts of the South China Sea, including the Spratly Islands. China has a separate dispute with Japan in the East China Sea.

(Reporting by Ben Blanchard and Huang Yan; Editing by Nick Macfie)

Edited January 21, 2014 by Bugatti Veyron

[oscartamaguchiblackface]

 

Japan tells world to stand up to China or face consequences

http://l.yimg.com/os/publish-images/news/2013-08-26/d19448d6-6aaa-4359-a768-eadacf5fbca9_afp-gif_new.gif By Angus MacKinnon 22 hours ago 0 shares

 

Davos (Switzerland) (AFP) - Japan on Wednesday told the world it must stand up to an increasingly assertive China or risk a regional conflict with catastrophic economic consequences.In a landmark speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe issued what amounted to an appeal for international support in a potentially explosive dispute with its superpower neighbour over islands in the East China Sea.

 

"We must restrain military expansion in Asia ... which otherwise could go unchecked," Abe told the annual meeting of global business and political leaders, which Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is due to attend on Friday.

 

"If peace and stability were shaken in Asia, the knock-on effect for the entire world would be enormous," Abe added.

 

"The dividend of growth in Asia must not be wasted on military expansion."

 

Although Abe did not explicitly mention China, his speech had been flagged up in advance by Japanese officials as an alarm call to an influential audience over what Tokyo sees as bullying by Beijing.

 

…The dispute over the uninhabited but potentially mineral-rich islands is being played out against a backdrop of Japanese fears that China is seeking to exert control over lifeline shipping lanes around its vast coastline and that the United States' commitment to guarantee Japan's security is waning.

 

Tensions over the islands, which Japan calls Senkaku and China refers to as the Diaoyus, have come perilously close to boiling over into armed clashes on several occasions in recent years.

 

They resurfaced last month when Abe visited the Yasukuni shrine, a memorial to Japan's war dead which is controversial because a handful of convicted war criminals are among those commemorated.

 

China and South Korea seized on the visit as fresh evidence of Japan's perceived failure to sincerely repent for its 20th-century record of military aggression, and the visit has also been criticised as unhelpful by Britain and the United States.

 

Asked about the visit here, Abe said his "praying for the souls of the departed" should be regarded as "something quite natural for a leader of any country in the world" while emphasising he had no intention of hurting Chinese or Korean feelings.

 

Much of Abe's speech was given over to a review of the progress of "Abenomics", his bid to end two decades of deflation which he said was on the verge of bearing fruit.

 

Describing Asia as a region of limitless potential and the engine driving world economic growth, Abe urged China to join a revitalised Japan in creating systems to prevent disputes from destroying their mutual prosperity.

 

"Trust, not tension, is crucial for peace and prosperity in Asia, and in the rest of the world," he said. "This can only be achieved through dialogue and the rule of law, and not through force or coercion."

 

Japan wants China to agree to share details of its military spending, help set up a mechanism for managing crises and establish channels of communication between the two countries' armed forces.

 

 

 

Abe's was the most significant speech on the first full day of a gathering which is expected to be dominated for the rest of the week by the volatile but potentially pivotal moment for the Middle East.

 

Syrian peace talks opened in another Swiss town, Montreux, on Wednesday; Iranian President Hassan Rouhani arrived in Davos on a mission to further his country's emergence from international isolation and both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Secretary of State John Kerry are expected later in the week.

 

In a telling symbol of the Davos forum's ability to bring even the bitterest of foes to close proximity, the official jets of Israel and Iran were parked side by side at the Zurich airport on Wednesday.

 

The forum opened against a background of mounting optimism about the prospects for the global economy this year, although that was tempered by concern over the impact of the widening gulf between rich and poor.

 

Also emerging in conversations are fears of more monetary tightening in the United States that would hit emerging countries by triggering a wave of capital repatriation to the advanced economies.

 

India's Finance Minister P. Chidambaram played down such fears and predicted that the world's largest democracy would grow by six percent in the 2014-15 financial and gradually return to its potential expansion rate of eight percent.

 

"Fiscal consolidation has taken place, there's more foreign direct investment flowing into India," he told AFP.

 

The outlook depicted for Europe by some participants was not so positive, however.

 

Christophe de Margerie, head of French energy giant Total, said the Old Continent was still struggling to break free from stagnant growth and address an unemployment problem that has become chronic amongst youth.

 

"Don't take it as being provocative, (but) I think Europe should be reclassified as an emerging country," De Margerie said.

 

 

 

[oscartamaguchiblackface]

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/01/chinas-careful-days.aspx

 

 

China’s Careful Days

 

February 1, 2014

 

 

The Chinese believe that they can achieve their objective of acquiring islands throughout the South and East China Seas without a fight. It worked against the Philippines. If they try the same strategy against Japan over the Senkaku Islands, they just may get a bloody surprise.

 

The Reference to the "String of Pearls" first appeared in a 2005 intelligence report about the emergence of China as a regional power. The String of Pearls is a number of Chinese built port facilities in Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan and were constructed by Chinese state owned corporations. That is to say that they were built under Chinese government direction.

 

The Chinese insist that they are strictly commercial operations, while the United States, India, and Japan are convinced that they will eventually be transformed into military advanced positions for what is seen as a rival emerging naval power, but that is unlikely. There is a very remote chance that China will position military forces far from the homeland where they cannot be supported in a time of crisis and in countries that could undergo regime and attitude changes abruptly.

 

Beyond that problem, not many of the host countries will permit China to maintain military forces in their territory. An alliance with China would make the host a potential target should China become involved in a military conflict.

 

The real threat from China comes from the Paracel Islands near Vietnam or Scarborough Shoal 190 kilometers west of Subic Bay in the Philippines. A map that was published by China in 1951 and presented to the United Nations in 2009 declares these to be Chinese territory. Chinese claims encompass two million square kilometers of the South China Sea. If China were to achieve its objective, the South China Sea would become a Chinese lake and China would become the gatekeeper between the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

 

The Paracels were seized by the Chinese in 1974 after a brief skirmish with the South Vietnamese Navy. It was only in June of 2012 that China established Sansha City on Woody Island as the administrative capital of the Paracel and Spratly Islands.

 

On January 21, 2014, a 5,000 ton patrol boat began regular patrols from a newly established base on Woody Island. Included in its patrol area is Scarborough Shoal that was abandoned by the Philippine Navy on June 15 2012 to a superior Chinese naval force after a brief encounter.

 

Unlike the Paracels, the Chinese seizure of the shoal was accomplished through simple intimidation without a shot fired. The success of the strategy has prompted Beijing to look at the event as a model for future actions that have been labeled as "extended coercion."

 

The chart that was presented to the United Nations as China's counter argument against Vietnam and the Philippines was drawn long before Beijing was interested in oil and gas deposits and long before China had a navy that could enforce Chinese claims over the far-flung islands. What is revealed in the vague charts is an awareness of China's vulnerable underbelly that was the means by which foreigners invaded the country.

 

The Paracel Islands and the Scarborough Shoal are bricks in what is the construction of a new Great Wall of China. Like the first wall that was designed to block a land invasion, the new marine wall is intended to protect China from attacks on its weak underbelly.

 

Geography has given China natural barriers to shield it from land invasions. Through the control of the four non-Han Chinese regions of Manchuria, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Tibet, China can secure the heartland from attacks from Russia, the western steppes, India or Southeast Asia; and Beijing is strengthening its hold over the vital buffer states by moving Han Chinese into the regions.

 

For many centuries, the natural barriers made China into an isolated island where it had the opportunity to nurture a unique civilization, but isolation will no longer shield the society in an age of modern technology. China will have to do what Japan did more than a hundred and fifty years ago when it opted to adopt the strength of the foreigners to equal them.

 

Deng Xiaoping Started China along that course when he began the industrialization of the country. The new strategy requires China to become international in its outlook. Like Japan and all other industrial states, China relies upon the outside world to provide the markets for its goods and the natural resources to feed the industries and the people.

 

Eighty percent of Chinese commerce is carried by ships that transit through the South and the East China Seas. To reach Chinese ports, the ships pass between a chain of islands that extend between Okinawa and the Philippines and between Indonesia and Singapore. Who controls those islands determines whether they are a trap for China or a barrier against an invasion.

 

The United States Navy since 1945 has assured the freedom of the open seas to the benefit of all nations engaged in international commerce. 5.3 trillion dollars in trade passes through the South China Sea; and China, more than most, has benefited from American control of the seas.

 

In spite of the benefits, Beijing sees that their economic survival depends upon the good will of a potential enemy. This fear has been made more real by the introduction of the new American pivot to Asia that includes the strategy of Air-Sea Battle, which requires the establishment of air and naval bases from Hawaii to India, the introduction of new weapon systems and strengthens alliances with Japan, Australia, India, and Vietnam as well as the Philippines and Singapore.

 

China views the strategy as a method of containment that must be overcome. The commissioning of China's first aircraft carrier Liaoning in 2012 was a conspicuous move by China to create the image of the country as a major military power to impress the smaller neighbors, to inflate the national pride and to provide a training platform for the expansion of a carrier force. The military has been growing by ten percent per annum with emphasis upon naval and air forces as a part of their strategy of access denial to potential enemies. If China could base its coastal defenses on the chain of islands, hostile naval forces could be kept far from the mainland.

 

The U.S. carrier forces allows American power to remain outside of the non-Chinese controlled islands and beyond the reach of Chinese anti-ship defenses from where it can block the passage of ships through the South and East China Seas. American control of the sea lanes gives it the means to cut the vital link between Chinese factories and stomachs with the world outside. In spite of years of rapid development, the Chinese navy lacks the strength to challenge the U.S. Navy on the open seas.

 

However much bravado the Chinese display, they seek to attain their objectives without engaging in a shooting war with a major power; and believe that they can. That is the lesson that Beijing learned from the incident in 1974 when the American naval forces refused to assist their Vietnamese ally or in June 2012 when the U.S. declined to take a position on the side of the Philippines. The lesson is that American interest is restricted to insuring that freedom of the seas is maintained in the Commons and not to become embroiled in every territorial squabble; and that is to China's advantage. Even in the case of the Senkaku, Washington has expressed its determination to defend Japan, if Japan is attacked, but Washington has not acknowledged the Japanese ownership of the islands.

 

What Scarborough Shoal taught Beijing is how to apply pressure without employing a level of force that would provoke the United States to intervene. American ships will not fire upon a cluster of Chinese fishing boats in waters where they do not belong or upon an oil rig drilling in a neighbor's waters. These are matters better left to the parties involved to resolve peacefully.

 

Among the various territories in dispute, it is the Senkaku Islands that are in the headlines and it is these islands where there is little room for compromise. When China and Japan in 1972 were settling the problems left from World War II, the question of the Senkaku was left for a future generation to resolve. Tokyo knew that the islands were Japanese and Beijing was unable to enforce Chinese claims of ownership.

 

A drunken Chinese Fishing boat captain in 2010 changed the minor issue of the islands into a crisis. The captain rammed two Japanese patrol vessels and was arrested, which sparked outrage in China. Anti-Japanese riots and the cut off of rare earth shipments to Japan forced Tokyo to release the captain who returned home a national hero.

 

In Japan, nationalists treated Japan's release of the captain as a humiliation. Governor Shintaro Ishihara of Tokyo, who has built his political career upon an outspoken promotion of nationalism, started a program to purchase the islands in order to establish a physical Japanese presence on them.

 

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda in September 2012 saw the move of the nationalists as a provocation of the Chinese that he could thwart by having the government purchase the islands from the private Japanese owner. What was intended to defuse an explosive situation was treated in Beijing as the Japanese nationalization of a Chinese island.

 

Since the days of the drunken captain, the Chinese have been sending fleets of fishing boats with patrol boats into Senkaku waters. Each time, Japanese Coast Guard boats are forced to drive them away. Over a one year period, the Chinese Coast Guard intruded fifty-nine times into Senkaku waters and has been stretching the resources of the Japanese Coast Guard to its limits.

 

Chinese military aircraft are being sent to the edge of the Japanese air defense identification zone. The Japanese scramble fighters to intercept and the Chinese aircraft always change course just on the edge of the zone.

 

On two occasions, Chinese armed vessels activated their weapon systems against a Japanese helicopter and against a Japanese ship. The Japanese simply filed protests with Beijing about the provocation.

 

The surprise came on November 24 2013 when China declared the creation of an Air Defense Identification Zone. Twenty zones exist around the world under the control of the United States, Canada, the UK, Norway, Japan, and South Korea. They have no real standing under international law, but are widely accepted as a means of regulating air traffic.

 

The Chinese zone is different. It overlaps the zones of Japan and South Korea and extends over territory that is claimed by Japan and by South Korea. The declaration of the zone came when Vice President Joseph Biden was to visit Beijing.

 

It was Scarborough Shoal again. Without risking any losses, Xi Jinping could posture without taking any risk; and he was rewarded for his audacity. Washington refused to recognize the zone for military flights while advising commercial aircraft to comply with Chinese demands. Without expending any resources beyond talk, China gained partial recognition of its claim from the United States. The Japanese refuse to acknowledge the zone.

 

On January 24, 2014, the Chinese raised the temperature again. They are demanding that military aircraft report when they enter the zone. They claim that verbal warnings have been given to aircraft violating the zone, but did not specify to which aircraft the warnings were given or when. Neither did Beijing explain what would be done if their demands are ignored in the

future.

 

They Chinese are not eager to start a war, but they do want to secure a vital brick in their new wall and are seeing the opportunity slipping away. Driven in good part by the Chinese growing assertiveness, the nationalists in Japan are calling for an expansion of the military to counter the threat.

 

The submarine force is to be increased from sixteen to twenty-two. The helicopter carrier ships are to expand from two to four, and Japan will be adding the F35 jet fighter and is adding a new unit of marines to their army and are supplying Vietnam with patrol boats to counter Chinese encroachment into their waters. Already, Japan has a formidable military that has the most advanced weapons available. In a few more years, Japan will be even more capable of defending its interests at home and abroad where they are beginning to collide with the Chinese in Africa.

 

The nationalists in Japan have made the Senkaku Islands a point of national pride. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who has been an advocate for the development of the Japanese military, has introduced into the public schools the order to have Japanese students taught that the islands are Japanese. He is making it impossible for the government to abandon the claim.

 

If Beijing intends to acquire the Senkaku Islands to add to their wall, they will have to move quickly before Japan expands the military bases on nearby Okinawa and acquires the more advanced weapons that are planned. The question is if the lesson of Scarborough Shoal that worked against the far weaker Philippine Navy can be applied to the Japanese. Extended coercion may prove to be the trigger to an unexpected and unwanted fight that the Japanese just might win and lead to the third humiliation of China by Japan. Xi Jinping has to think about that very carefully.