South China/West Philippine Sea

[heatseeker0714]

1.) Submarines are effective intelligence gathering tool. It can monitor poachers while submerged & not alarm the crew doing their illegal activity

 

The chinese will avoid shooting at the americans & vice versa, otherwise it will be armageddon. 2.) Additionally, the chinese will have no qualms shooting at us pinoys so we have to have a stout heart to fight back

 

When the shooting starts the best the americans can do is supply us medically, together with some weapons. We shoot the chinese, the americans dont, they will only provide the ammos

 

1.) My point exactly. aside from gathering info then what? can it enforce our laws in our EEZ without great risk to itself and in a cost effective manner? the answer to both is NO.

 

2.) I beg to disagree. Matagal ng pikon satin mga Chicoms, the only thing stopping them from doing a "Vietnamese Fiesta" on us is our MDT with the Americans.

[maxiev]

Naku, dinemote mo naman yung tao Sir... He's a Lt. Gen (3 Stars), not a Maj. Gen (2stars)

 

I basically agree with his position except for the Submarine part. There's minimal chance of a shooting war ever happening between us coz of our MDT. Kahit ano pa man nakalagay jan na "Metropolitan area" or "Pacific Area" ang keyword don is "Public Vessel and Aircraft", sisipa at sisipa yung MDT natin.

 

We have one of the longest coastlines in the world, if i'm not mistaken, the 4th longest overall and the Submarine is primarily an Offensive weapon who loses much of its effectiveness on the surface. Hindi naman araw-araw mag gyera tayo, eh paano kung peace time??? na ang kailangan eh mga aircraft and surface vessels needed to patrol our coastline??? diba?

 

For a cash strapped state like ours, we can use asymetric warfare like the good general is espousing by using a different but cheaper kind of tool other than Submarines... Mines and torpedoes...

 

With a limited budget, we have to be forward looking and practical with our resources, be it manpower, money or materiel... How do you enforce our EEZ and fisheries law by using a sub??? can a sub chase illegal fishing boats without damaging itself???

 

Saka ang point naman dito is not to go toe to toe with China on a 1:1 ratio, our economy can simply not afford it, ang goal dito is to make the world aware of China's bullying and to make them bleed and hold the line till the Americans arrive, because I firmly believe that no matter how tired the American PUBLIC is with regard to "Foreign Adventures", NCA cannot pussyfoot and leave us out to die by Chinese hands because if they let that happen and the world sees them hesitate, it's Sayonara America in Asia for the forseeable future. No Asian government would take their words of reassurance anymore.

He he he. Sorry about inadvertently demoting retired Lt. General Sotelo. Just an oversight on my part.

[maxiev]

The huge military spending of China is due to its economic prosperity. Perhaps the best way to curtail this military build-up is to somehow sabotage the Chinese economy. Now what effect that would have on the world economy at large is something that needs to be analyzed first.

[oscartamaguchiblackface]

http://news.yahoo.com/vietnam-philippines-agree-oppose-china-160204828.html

 

Vietnam and Philippines agree to oppose China

 

By JIM GOMEZ

 

MANILA, Philippines (AP) — Vietnam and the Philippines will jointly oppose "illegal" Chinese actions in the South China Sea, Vietnam's prime minster said Wednesday in a rare show of public solidarity between two Southeast Asian nations wrestling with Beijing's determination to assert its sovereignty claims in the disputed waters.

 

Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, standing beside President Benigno Aquino III after they held talks in Manila, called on the world to condemn China for causing what he called an "extremely dangerous" situation in the South China Sea by deploying an oil rig near an island that both Vietnam and China claim.

 

China claims nearly all of the South China Sea, putting it into conflict with Vietnam and the Philippines, which have rival claims.

 

The "president and I shared deep concern over the current extremely dangerous situation caused by China's many actions that violate international law," Dung told a news conference.

 

"The two sides are determined to oppose China's violations and call on countries and the international community to continue strongly condemning China and demanding China to immediately end the above said violations," he said.

 

The Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, has been more vocal in opposing China than Vietnam, which has been trying to quietly resolve its territorial dispute with Beijing using ties between the two country's Communist parties. But Hanoi was incensed by the deployment of the oil rig on May 1, leading to speculation it would shift its approach.

 

Last year, the Philippines filed a case against the Chinese claims at a U.N. tribunal, to Beijing's displeasure.

 

Analysts have said Vietnam might now file its own appeal or join Manila's legal challenge against China.

 

The Philippines took the legal step after exhausting other peaceful means to resolve its territorial disputes with China, Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said.

 

"I think Vietnam should make an assessment as to whether resorting to legal means is promotive of their national interest," del Rosario said.

 

The deployment of the oil rig has led to the most serious outbreak of tensions in the South China Sea in years.

 

Vietnam dispatched ships to confront the Chinese oil rig that have jostled with Chinese vessels defending it. Last week rioting broke out in Vietnam that killed at least two Chinese workers and wounded more than 100 others.

 

Aquino did not mention the territorial disputes with China when he and Dung faced journalists but said they discussed how their countries could enhance defense and economic ties, adding that both governments aim to double two-way trade to $3 billion in two years. The two countries are now considering raising their ties to a "strategic partnership."

 

"In defense and security, we discussed how we can enhance confidence-building, our defense capabilities and inter-operability in addressing security challenges," Aquino said.

 

China and the Philippines are in a standoff over another South China Sea reef, the Second Thomas Shoal. Chinese coast guard ships have thrice attempted to block Filipino vessels delivering new military personnel and food supplies to Philippine marines keeping watch on the disputed area on board a long-grounded ship.

 

Many have feared the long-seething territorial disputes in the resource-rich South China Sea could spark Asia's next major armed conflict. Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan also have overlapping territorial claims in the strategic area, but the disputes between China, on the one hand, and Vietnam and the Philippines, on the other, have particularly flared in recent years.

 

China has steadfastly said that virtually the entire South China Sea has belonged to it since ancient times.

 

Chinese maritime surveillance ships took effective control of Scarborough Shoal off the northwestern Philippines after Filipino government vessels withdrew from the disputed fishing ground two years ago. Alarmed by China's move, the Philippines challenged the legality of Beijing's vast territorial claims in the South China Sea before an international arbitration tribunal last year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[oscartamaguchiblackface]

This could result in retaliation by Chinese hackers.

 

http://www.washingto...nese-web-sites/

 

 

Filipino hackers wage cyberwar on Chinese Web site

 

By Ishaan Tharoor

May 20 at 12:42 pm

 

Attention this week has centered on the covert cyberwar taking place between the United States and China. Chinese authorities pointed to the supposed hypocrisy of Washington leveling cyberspying charges against China, even while the United States maintains its own vast network of clandestine surveillance and monitoring.

 

There are myriad other stealth attacks launched from the dark ravines and hideaways of the Internet that governments have to monitor and protect against. And the Chinese aren't just facing the United States.

 

On Tuesday, the Philippine branch of the hacker collective Anonymous announced on its Facebook page that it had hacked and defaced nearly 200 Chinese government sites. The full list of sites is available in the embedded post below.

 

The raid on the Chinese state Web sites comes amid heightened tensions between Beijing and Manila. The two countries have locked horns in a heated maritime territorial dispute over islands in the South China Sea, initially provoked, Philippine authorities argue, by illegal Chinese poaching of endangered species in islands not far from the archipelago nation's coast.

 

Those provocations have escalated into dangerous standoffs between Chinese and Philippine naval vessels. Fear over China's increasingly expansionist behavior spurred the government in Manila to tie up a new security deal with Washington last month.

 

The Anonymous hackers from the Philippines are clearly riled up by this state of events. "China’s alleged claim on maritime territories and oppressive poaching can no longer be tolerated,” read one message posted on a hacked Chinese Web site. Previously, though, Anonymous Philippines targeted Web sites of its own country's government, following the passage of a controversial cybercrime law.

 

The Philippines has a considerable pool of Internet-savvy people, some of whom end up dabbling in the Web's dark arts. Recently, with the aid of Interpol, Philippine authorities arrested dozens in the country involved in global "sextortion" syndicates that would trick gullible netizens around the world into exposing themselves in lewd ways online and then blackmail them. They claimed more than 530 victims in the Chinese special administrative region of Hong Kong alone.

[stevearmstrong]

During Marcos's time, they didn't waste time drilling in West Philippine Sea areas because it's too deep. The cost of technology to drill at such depths was too expensive at that time. That is why Malampaya was built only recently when the new drilling methods and higher drilling accuracy became available for affordable deep sea oil drilling.

[lomex32]

Fisherman pala ha

 

[sonnyt111]

Fisherman pala ha

 

These "crew cuts" do make these men resemble members of a military organization.

[Bugatti Veyron]

China has invaded Vietnam in the past. What's to prevent it from invading Vietnam again to scare other claimants in the South China/Philippine Sea from pursuing their claims in this oil/gas rich region?

 

Also, because of the important Chinese/Asian value of trying to save face, I don't see China backing down by a united front by ASEAN with the US standing right behind them. By putting oil rigs in the area near the Paracel islands, China has painted itself into a corner. It cannot pull out without losing face.

http://news.yahoo.com/us-commander-warns-china-vietnam-standoff-085924226.html

 

US commander warns about China-Vietnam standoffhttp://l.yimg.com/os/152/2012/04/21/image001-png_162613.png By JIM GOMEZ

 

 

MANILA, Philippines (AP) — The U.S. military commander in the Pacific warned Friday that the risk of a miscalculation that could trigger a wider conflict in a tense territorial standoff between China and Vietnam is high and urged both nations to exercise restraint.

 

Southeast Asian diplomats have accused China of delaying the start of negotiations for such a nonaggression pact while it tries to consolidate its control of disputed territories.Adm. Samuel Locklear also urged Southeast Asian nations and China to hasten the drafting of a legally binding "code of conduct" to prevent territorial rifts from turning into armed conflicts that could threaten the region's bustling economies.

 

Locklear said he was concerned about a three-week standoff between China and Vietnam near the disputed Paracel Islands and urged them to resolve the territorial conflicts on the basis of international law.

 

"I have serious concerns," Locklear told reporters. "The risk of miscalculation, I think, is high and we encourage them both to exercise restraint."

 

China raised the stakes earlier this month when it deployed an oil rig off in waters also claimed by Vietnam, which sent ships to try to disrupt the drilling operation. Street protests morphed into bloody anti-Chinese riots that damaged hundreds of factories.

 

Analysts have said that countries confronted by China in disputed waters, like Vietnam, may seek a deeper security alliance with Washington.Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, who also attended an economic forum in Manila, told The Associated Press in written comments Thursday that "like all countries, Vietnam is considering various defense options, including legal actions in accordance with the international law." But he said Vietnam would defend itself if it comes under attack.

 

When asked by reporters about that possibility, Locklear said Washington has been forging such relationships and would welcome strategic ties with Hanoi.

 

"We look forward to exploring opportunities to expand our partnership with the nations such as Vietnam as well, but Vietnam is among many," Locklear said.

 

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum on East Asia, he said that the Asia-Pacific has become the most militarized region in the world, with some of the largest army and naval forces.

 

Philippine Foreign Undersecretary Laura del Rosario said the drafting of a code of conduct has been so delayed that it could be overrun by developments in the South China Sea, where territorial spats have flared and become more complicated in recent years."How these forces are managed to create a fabric of security that allows economic success here has not yet been determined," Locklear said.

 

"We're not acting fast enough and there are so many changes happening now," she said.

 

China claims nearly all of the South China Sea, bringing it into conflict with the far smaller nations of Vietnam, the Philippines and three others that have rival claims. Beijing also has a territorial dispute with Japan over a cluster of islands in the East China Sea.

 

Last year, the Philippines filed a complaint against Beijing before an international tribunal in The Hague challenging the legality of its claims. Beijing wants one-on-one talks with each of its rival claimants, something that gives it an advantage due to its sheer size and power.

 

U.S. efforts to pivot back to Asia after years of heavy military engagement in the Middle East were not meant to curb China's influence, Locklear said, suggesting Asian governments would treat China by its actions in the region.

 

"In my opinion, the only person that can contain China, is China," Locklear said.

 

 

[heatseeker0714]

Fisherman pala ha

 

 

Matagal ng open secret yan Bok... Yung Palawan nowadays was like the Philippines during the 1920s and 1930s up to the early 1940s... Yung mga mag-tataho, driver, hardinero, tindero at kung ano-ano pang mga Hapon sa Pilipinas nung panahon na yon, ganon din yung mga intsik na nagkalat sa Palawan ngayon, specially sa vicinity ng Wescom...

[Bugatti Veyron]

Matagal ng open secret yan Bok... Yung Palawan nowadays was like the Philippines during the 1920s and 1930s up to the early 1940s... Yung mga mag-tataho, driver, hardinero, tindero at kung ano-ano pang mga Hapon sa Pilipinas nung panahon na yon, ganon din yung mga intsik na nagkalat sa Palawan ngayon, specially sa vicinity ng Wescom...

Are you saying that Palawan is in some sort of time warp? A province that has somehow been left behind the rest of the country? This is an interesting assessment.

[maxiev]

The Vietnamese people seems to be more involved in anti-China protests than Filipinos are. It's only the Philippine government that seems to protest China's encroachment on Philippine territory. In Vietnam, the people themselves take the encroachment seriously. Enough for this woman to commit suicide by immolation.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/vietnamese-woman-self-immolates-protest-china-111808329.html

 

Vietnamese woman self-immolates to protest China

Associated Press

 

May 23, 2014 11:02 AM

 

HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — A 67-year-old Vietnamese woman died after setting herself on fire in downtown Ho Chi Minh City on Friday in protest against China's deployment of an oil rig in waters claimed by Hanoi, state media reported.

 

The woman self-immolated in front Reunification Palace around 6 a.m., Thanh Nien newspaper reported.

 

The paper quoted Le Truong Hai Hieu, a top city official, as saying police recovered a plastic container thought to contain fuel, a lighter and seven handwritten banners saying among other things: "Demand unity to smash the Chinese invasion plot" and "Support Vietnamese coast guards and fishermen."

 

China's deployment of the rig on May 1 in the South China Sea triggered fury in Vietnam, which has been feuding with China for years over overlapping claims in the potentially oil and gas-rich seas. Ships Hanoi sent to confront the rigs are now facing off against Chinese vessels protecting it.

 

Street protests also occurred, but Vietnam's authoritarian government clamped down on them after they morphed into anti-Chinese riots that left three Chinese national dead and damaged scores of foreign-owned factories.

 

News of the self-immolation spread quickly on the Internet. Thanh Nien ran a cell phone clip purportedly showing the incident and motor cyclists looking on. The paper said the woman came to the palace by taxi and set herself on fire before guards there could react. By the time they did, her injuries were fatal.

 

Self-immolations in Vietnam are rare but have been occasionally reported over the years.

 

In 1963, a Buddhist monk burnt himself to death at a busy intersection in Saigon to protest the persecution of Buddhists by the South Vietnamese government. An Associated Press photo of him won a Pulitzer Prize and remains a recognized image today.

[heatseeker0714]

Are you saying that Palawan is in some sort of time warp? A province that has somehow been left behind the rest of the country? This is an interesting assessment.

Nope... Its just that kaduda-duda na yung presence ng madaming Chinese don...mukhang hindi lahat sa kanila eh Philippine Government friendly...

[oscartamaguchiblackface]

Nope... Its just that kaduda-duda na yung presence ng madaming Chinese don...mukhang hindi lahat sa kanila eh Philippine Government friendly...

 

Spies?

[heatseeker0714]

Spies?

 

Agents po Sir... We call them Information Gathering Agents or Agents for short... Medyo nega and cold war-dish na po yung dating ng Spies eh...

Edited May 26, 2014 by heatseeker0714

[oscartamaguchiblackface]

Agents po Sir... We call them Information Gathering Agents or Agents for short... Medyo nega and cold war-dish na po yung dating ng Spies eh...

 

[Bugatti Veyron]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-javad-heydarian/philippines-and-vietnam-i_b_5392321.html

 

 

Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea: A Burgeoning Alliance

Posted: 05/26/2014 11:55 am EDT Updated: 1 hour ago

It was bound to happen. For decades, the Philippines (liberal democracy) and Vietnam (communist) have developed a lukewarm partnership -- within the confines of regional bonds of solidarity -- despite the increasing convergence of their strategic interests. But as China steps up its territorial claims in the South China Sea, the two Southeast Asian countries have inched closer to a genuine alliance. The recent meeting between Philippine President Benigno Aquino and Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung (May 21) saw "productive discussions" over establishing a bilateral strategic partnership, marking a critical step towards deepening economic and political cooperation between the two countries. Finally, they have decided to move from semi-passive neighborly relations to institutionalized strategic cooperation, especially in the realm of maritime security and regional stability.

 

Previously, the two countries adopted distinct approaches to managing their territorial disputes with China: In recent years, the Philippines has opted for a combination of confrontational language and high-profile legal protestation, anchored by deepening military alliance with Washington, while Vietnam has largely relied on low-key, patient bilateral diplomacy to push for joint-development schemes with China. When the Philippines decided to file an arbitration case against China before a special United Nations (UN) Arbitral Tribunal in The Hague, Vietnam was conspicuously quiet.

 

However, China's recent decision to unilaterally dispatch a giant oil rig to Vietnam's 200-nautical-miles Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), which led to a nail biting showdown between Vietnamese and Chinese naval forces and massive anti-China protests in Hanoi, has changed the complexion of regional diplomatic calculations. Even the ASEAN couldn't hide its panic in the recently-concluded summit in Myanmar. So Vietnam has decided to move closer to the Philippines' position, with Hanoi now also threatening to file a similar legal complaint against China.

 

Deepening partnership between the two countries has paved the way for the emergence of a "security diamond" of like-minded states in the Western Pacific, especially as Japan, Australia, and India step up their counter-measures against rising Chinese maritime assertiveness in the Pacific waters.

 

From Rivalry to Synergy

 

During the Cold War, the Philippines and (North) Vietnam were placed in ideological opposition, as the U.S. and Soviet Union directed their Southeast Asian allies against each other. The two countries also competed for a myriad of contested islands in the Spratly chain of islands in the South China Sea. The end of the Cold War, in turn, saw the emergence of the Philippines and (united) Vietnam as competitors in a new age of economic globalization, as the two economies fought for a greater share of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI), especially in the realm of low-cost manufacturing.

 

Nonetheless, the Philippines welcomed the integration of Vietnam as an integral member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Filipino policy-makers believed that Vietnam's integration into existing regional mechanisms would transform the communist country into a partner for stability and prosperity in East Asia, putting a definitive end to a bitter history of Cold War rivalries in the Indo-China theater. And they were correct in that assumption.

 

Leveraging its cheap labor, strategic developmental policies, and regulatory stability, Vietnam managed to outshine ASEAN countries such as the Philippines in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Up until the 2007-08 Great Recession, Vietnam was largely seen as the "Little China" of global manufacturing, as the medium-sized Southeast Asian country attracted one of the largest amounts of FDI (as a share of GDP) in modern history. Rising production costs and widespread labor unrest in neighboring China also encouraged massive relocation of Chinese production facilities to Vietnam.

 

No wonder, the Obama administration saw Vietnam as a perfect partner in its pan-regional Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement. Vietnam was increasingly seen as a serious economic player in Asia. Naturally, many in the Philippines were worried about being left behind by another neighboring country, just as Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea managed to do in preceding decades. As the Philippines struggled to attract FDI, and witnessed the relocation of multinational companies to its neighbors, Vietnam seemed to be poised for turbo-charged industrialization, thanks to massive inflow of investments from Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, China, and South Korea.

 

More than five years after the Great Recession, the Philippines has emerged as an increasingly confident emerging market, thanks to an unprecedented period of political stability and above-average growth amid stable inflation and interest rates. As the new toast of the town among global investors, the Philippines hosted the 2014 World Economic Forum (WEF) on East Asia, formally announcing its arrival on world stage. Meanwhile, Vietnam has been struggling with rising inflation, economic slow-down, and growing anxieties among foreign investors, largely due to the recent anti-China protests, which ended up in massive destruction of factories owned by, among others, China and Taiwan.

 

As the Philippines overcomes its economic insecurities, and achieves a more balanced competition with its neighbors, the scope (and vision) for cooperation with fellow ASEAN members has expanded. The Philippines is no longer just obsessed with attracting more investments and strategic support from Pacific powers such as the U.S., Australia, Japan, and South Korea, but it is also reaching out to smaller neighbors with similar interests.

 

The Perfect Alliance

 

In light of the intensifying territorial disputes in the South China Sea, Vietnam represents a perfect partner for the Philippines, and vice-versa.

 

As influential members of the ASEAN, the two countries have been concerned with the lack of a unified regional response to China's growing assertiveness in the Western Pacific. Despite a decade-long agreement on developing a robust maritime conflict-prevention mechanism, the ASEAN has yet to finalize a legally-binding Code of Conduct (CoC) with China. So greater diplomatic coordination and strategic engagement between the two countries has become indispensable to establishing greater synergy within the ASEAN. The two countries can no longer afford to simply chart their own independent paths, since maximum coordination has become a strategic imperative.

 

Together, the two countries also hope to bring other claimant states such as Malaysia on board. So far, Malaysia has agreed to participate in trilateral dialogues with Vietnam and the Philippines to forge a common approach to the South China Sea disputes. The ASEAN's informal leader, Indonesia, has also moved closer to Vietnam and the Philippines. In recent months, Jakarta has openly criticized China's notorious "nine-dash-line" doctrine as a quasi-legalistic claim with no basis in international law, while finalizing a new border agreement with Manila, ending two decades of territorial squabbles.

 

Beyond diplomatic coordination, the Philippines could also advice Vietnam on crafting a separate legal action against China. In this way, both Manila and Hanoi could utilize existing international arbitration mechanisms to undermine China's sweeping claims across the South China Sea. More importantly, the two countries are moving closer to establishing regularized joint-exercises among their maritime forces. Obviously, the way forward is to institutionalize various defense-related mechanisms such as deeper intelligence-sharing vis-à-vis developments in the South China Sea, annual exercises between Vietnamese and Filipino coast guard and naval forces, and regular high-level dialogue between the two countries' leaders, strategists, and eminent academics.

 

The greater salience of the burgeoning Philippine-Vietnam strategic alliance, however, is the potential consolidation of a network of alliances in the Pacific theater, largely led by Washington. As Japan astutely works around post-War constitutional restrictions to play an increasingly important military role in the region, Washington hopes that Tokyo can play a more visible role in enhancing the deterrence and maritime capabilities of weaker Southeast Asian states such as Vietnam and the Philippines.

 

By pushing for the doctrine of "collective self-defense", the Abe administration is paving the way for a more robust Japanese defense role in the region. After all, the ultimate aim is to allow Japanese Maritime Self Defense Forces (MSDF) to be in a position to assist American troops if a war were to erupt in the South China Sea, presumably between China and the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally. As Japan relaxes self-imposed restrictions on defense exports, it is also in a position to provide more concrete military support for the Philippines and Vietnam.

 

Meanwhile, Australia and India have also emerged as (a more willing and capable) counterbalance to China's rising military profile. While Canberra has upgraded its joint-military exercises with Washington, with growing focus on maritime military operations, a new nationalist government in India, led by the charismatic Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is also expected to step up India's strategic footprint in Southeast Asia.

 

Overall, what is clear is that China's relentless territorial push into adjacent waters has inspired growing strategic cooperation among a wide range of like-minded states, which have sought to deter a large-scale military conflict across Sea lines of Communication (SLOC) by compensating for Washington's increasingly alarming strategic retrenchment in recent years.

 

The ultimate aim is not to contain China, which has become the pivot of economic prosperity in Asia, but to constrain the sharp edges of China's inexorable rise in recent decades.

 

 

 

[hit05]

http://youtu.be/zbPx6rQO3qg

 

This Making of the last super fighter film seems to betray faulty issues of the recent AFP modernization program that violated the Malampaya funds use.

Edited May 27, 2014 by hit05

[sonnyt111]

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-05-27/why-vietnam-cant-count-on-its-neighbors-to-rally-against-china

 

 

Why Vietnam Can't Count on Its Neighbors to Rally Against China

By Bruce Einhorn [/url] May 27, 2014 China’s fight with Vietnam has taken an even more dangerous turn. On May 2, a state-owned Chinese company began drilling for oil in a part of the South China Sea claimed by both countries, and relations have been deteriorating ever since. Ships from both sides have attacked one another and, fueled by media coverage of the incidents, anti-Chinese protesters went on a rampage around Vietnam, setting fire to Taiwanese owned factories with Chinese workers.

 

Now comes the latest escalation: A Vietnamese fishing boat has been sunk in the disputed waters after an attack after a Chinese ship “deliberately attacked” it, according to the official Viet Nam News. The Chinese oil exploration violates international law, VNS reported, quoting National Assembly deputy Truong Trong Nghia saying: “The area where the rig is stationed is totally within Viet Nam’s exclusive economic zone and continental shelf.”

 

China’s official Xinhua news agency blames the Vietnamese, saying the boat capsized “after harassing and colliding with a Chinese fishing boat.” According to the official Chinese account, “Vietnam has sent a number of ships to obstruct the drilling of Chinese companies in the waters where the collision took place.”

 

As in a similar dispute with the Philippines, China knows Vietnam can do little to stop it; while an appeal by Vietnam to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations could make the fight more equal, it’s not likely to be very effective. ASEAN emphasizes consensus, and Vietnam and the Philippines aren’t likely to gain the support of small countries that don’t have territorial disputes with China. ”Many Southeast Asian countries are reluctant to challenge China because it has become their largest trading partner and it is the largest aid donor to nations like Cambodia and Laos,” wrote Murray Hiebert, a senior fellow and deputy director of the Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

 

Even the Vietnamese government has to be cautious about upsetting the economic relationship with China. As wages have gone up in China, companies have moved factories to Vietnam to tap the country’s low-cost workforce. The supply chains are not completely separate, though, and companies that produce in Vietnam sometimes need to send products to factories in China. Vietnam’s exports to China now account for 42 percent of its total, up from 28 percent 18 months ago, Natixis Chief Asia Economist Luca Silipo told Bloomberg Television. Even as the political situation deteriorates, individual companies are cooperating more, creating a difficult balancing act for Vietnam’s diplomats.

 

Regional leaders worried about standing up to China may gain reinforcements soon. As Hiebert points out, there will be several summits in the coming months at which ASEAN foreign ministers will be able to get a boost from counterparts from the U.S., Japan, India and others. ”ASEAN officials recognize that they will not need to take the lead in discussions with China about the South China Sea at these meetings,” writes Hiebert. Maybe those other countries will be able to get China’s attention in a way that ASEAN can’t.

 

 

 

[heatseeker0714]

"The South China Sea may prove to be China's Dien Bien Phu, and it will be us, not the Americans, who stop Beijing's bullying in East Asia."

 

-Anonymous Vietnamese Diplomat.

 

 

When the other Patis lovers (aside from us Pinoys) speak, them Chicoms better listen...

[BnF95]

Here we go again,

 

Dear Filipinos,

 

You protest against everyone, yet expect their help when a foreign (for that matter a domestic) problem pops up. If you want to play with the big boys, be a big boy, not a cry-baby.

[camiar]

A very interesting read on why China does what its doing now:

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hugh-white/china-america-relations_b_5412014.html

 

to highlight:

 

"Their reasoning is simple enough. They know that America's position in Asia is built on its network of alliances and partnerships with many of China's neighbors. They believe that weakening these relationships is the easiest way to weaken U.S. regional power. And they know that...the bedrock of these alliances and partnerships is the confidence ...that America is able and willing to protect them from China's power.

 

So the easiest way for Beijing to weaken Washington's power in Asia is to undermine this confidence. And the easiest way to do that is for Beijing to press those friends and allies hard on issues in which America's own interests are not immediately engaged -- like a string of maritime disputes in which the U.S. has no direct stake.

 

By using direct armed pressure in these disputes, China makes its neighbors more eager for U.S. military support, and at the same time makes America less willing to give it...

 

In other words, by confronting America's friends with force, China confronts America with the choice between deserting its friends and fighting China.

 

Beijing is betting that, faced with this choice, America will back off and leave its allies and friends unsupported. This will weaken America's alliances and partnerships, undermine U.S. power in Asia, and enhance China's power..."

Edited June 3, 2014 by camiar

[Bugatti Veyron]

A very interesting read on why China does what its doing now:

 

http://www.huffingto..._b_5412014.html

 

to highlight:

 

"Their reasoning is simple enough. They know that America's position in Asia is built on its network of alliances and partnerships with many of China's neighbors. They believe that weakening these relationships is the easiest way to weaken U.S. regional power. And they know that...the bedrock of these alliances and partnerships is the confidence ...that America is able and willing to protect them from China's power.

 

So the easiest way for Beijing to weaken Washington's power in Asia is to undermine this confidence. And the easiest way to do that is for Beijing to press those friends and allies hard on issues in which America's own interests are not immediately engaged -- like a string of maritime disputes in which the U.S. has no direct stake.

 

By using direct armed pressure in these disputes, China makes its neighbors more eager for U.S. military support, and at the same time makes America less willing to give it...

 

In other words, by confronting America's friends with force, China confronts America with the choice between deserting its friends and fighting China.

 

Beijing is betting that, faced with this choice, America will back off and leave its allies and friends unsupported. This will weaken America's alliances and partnerships, undermine U.S. power in Asia, and enhance China's power..."

But isn't maintaining America's alliances and partnerships with China's neighbors is in itself in line with its own interests? Since the US has no direct interests in the atolls, reefs, and small islets in the South China/West Philippine Sea, it needs to cultivate these alliances so as to appear as a disinterested spectator but at the same time ensure that the disputed region remains open to international shipping which IS in the interests of the US.

 

In other words, it does not want to confront China directly. Rather, it prefers to use proxies (that would be us, Vietnam, etc.) to counter China's growing influence in this part of the world.

 

Besides, if there's a huge deposit of oil underneath the South China/West Philippine Sea, that's certainly to catch the interest of the Americans.

 

Right now it's all a mind game. China and the US are making moves based on certain assumptions they made. We are like pawns being played by both the US and China.

 

Anyway, that certainly is a very interesting article you posted. Truly food for thought.

Edited June 3, 2014 by Bugatti Veyron

[heatseeker0714]

If the Vietnamese stand their ground and battle China tooth and nail whenever there is a Chinese incursion, other countries may be emboldened to duke it out with China in the disputed areas because Vietnam already did a precedent. The North Vietnamese/Viet Cong made America give up the fight. It wouldn't be beyond the realm of possibility that Vietnam would make China give up and stop encroaching on its seas.

 

No can do brod... Never compare the Yanks with them Chicoms... A couple of decades ago, a Soviet Marshal once told a Chink General that with one press of a button, they can k*ll around 20 MILLION ++ Chicoms... Know what the Chicom General said...

 

"You can k*ll 20 Million of us, go ahead, we have a couple hundred million more and when you invade us, you'll all drown on the blood of those 20 Million" or words to that effect.

 

In the eyes of the Chicom government, the cheapest commodity they have is their countrymen's lives...

[camiar]

But isn't maintaining America's alliances and partnerships with China's neighbors is in itself in line with its own interests? Since the US has no direct interests in the atolls, reefs, and small islets in the South China/West Philippine Sea, it needs to cultivate these alliances so as to appear as a disinterested spectator but at the same time ensure that the disputed region remains open to international shipping which IS in the interests of the US.

 

Yes, absolutely. America cultivates its alliances with China’s neighbors for its own interests. It’s not really interested in the territorial disputes between China and her neighbors. What America is really interested in is to prevent China from taking control of the South China Sea, which could open Chinese Navy'’s access to the Pacific and Indian Ocean.

 

Who stands in China’s way to its access to the Pacific Ocean? Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines.

 

Who stands in China’s way to its access to the Indian Ocean? Malaysia and Indonesia.

 

That's the first-island-chain that China wants to control.

 

In other words, it does not want to confront China directly. Rather, it prefers to use proxies (that would be us, Vietnam, etc.) to counter China's growing influence in this part of the world.

 

Again, you’re right. But the Americans do not expect us to fight China for them. They can bring in their men and military equipment. What they need are land bases for them to stage their forces.

If we are friendly with the US, we will always grant them the use of our bases.

 

China on the other hand would try to undermine our friendly ties with the US. Bullying is China’s tactic to make us doubt USA’s resolve to protect us on territorial dispute. And it’s working.

 

America's biggest nightmare would be if China convinces us to allow their naval assets unhindered passage to the Pacific Ocean, in exchange for their allowing us to freely exploit the KIG's oil and mineral deposits.

 

Besides, if there's a huge deposit of oil underneath the South China/West Philippine Sea, that's certainly to catch the interest of the Americans.

 

I don’t think US is really that much interested in the potential oil and mineral wealth in the KIG.

China and America are now playing the world domination game. Strategic control of the oceans is their real goal.

 

What’s more important for China is to drive the US out of South China Sea so that they can make it “Beijing’s lake” just as the Pacific Ocean is “Washington’s lake”. And America in turn trying to keep China contained within the South China Sea with the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, Malaysia and Indonesia as buffer zone.

 

Right now it's all a mind game. China and the US are making moves based on certain assumptions they made. We are like pawns being played by both the US and China.

Anyway, that certainly is a very interesting article you posted. Truly food for thought.

 

It’s the fight of the big boys. We are just collateral damage.

So, we should think smart.

Do we really want to be used as pawns? If we are willing to play as pawns, what’s in it for us?

In the long run, taking whose side would be less hurtful to us?

Can we be smart enough to build our strength so we can be neutral to both?

Edited June 4, 2014 by camiar