South China/West Philippine Sea

[dungeonbaby]

 

IMHO the US will always look at its interest first before anything else in making a decision. That will decide the kind of "aid" we are to receive.

 

 

in your opinion, just what self interest did it serve when it (government and private sector) sent billions of dollars in aid for Yolanda?

[Larry]

I think China is taking a risk by doing these taunting actions and if they can get away with bloody murder, they will continue doing it and, I think, they will push the envelope as far as they can until the US says stop. As we speak, the US has the firepower and hardware to impose its will in the Southeast Asian region. China has only one carrier, the Liaoning, which will get taken out by a hunter-killer submarine. China will get routed in this theoretical Battle of South China Sea.

 

 

china has 1 carrier, that it doesn't know how to use.

 

anyway, agreed on what you posted, but to what end though?

 

it's a mystery to me

[dungeonbaby]

what I really want to find out, is the end game to all of this.

 

what does china look to achieve, they're doing fine without these islands, and it doesn't seem worth it to me to test the resolve of the US by continuously pushing its buttons.

 

I mean they know an all out war with the US is a conflict they can't hope to win, not at this time at least, so why keep playing with the tiger's tail? and very aggressively at that.

 

they're not really doing that well, it seems. they are facing a massive shortage of food and, if you watch the financial channels and look at what they are investing in, are taking measures to address this.

 

add the energy-rich spratlys in the mix...and you've got a big, drooling behemoth at our doorstep.

 

they might not want to get into a conflict with the US at this time, but they also see that the US is losing its position in the world. the end game? has the communist agenda ever stopped drumming in their hearts? this is one of those rare times i sort of agree with dos8dos.

 

...China has only one carrier, the Liaoning, which will get taken out by a hunter-killer submarine. China will get routed in this theoretical Battle of South China Sea.

 

is that carrier even functioning yet? it floats, yeah.

Edited January 15, 2014 by dungeonbaby

[Larry]

I believe it's functioning but I'm not exactly sure if it has already been deployed. It's a second-hand Soviet carrier.

 

hasn't been deployed, it just finished sea trials early this year.

 

sure they can deploy it, but they still wouldn't know how to use it effectively, i.e. in blue water ops as an effective force projection element. Something a US Carrier Group knows all too well, as it is the most efficient and effective force projection element in the world.

 

they're not really doing that well, it seems. they are facing a massive shortage of food and, if you watch the financial channels and look at what they are investing in, are taking measures to address this.

 

add the energy-rich spratlys in the mix...and you've got a big, drooling behemoth at our doorstep.

 

they might not want to get into a conflict with the US at this time, but they also see that the US is losing its position in the world. the end game? has the communist agenda ever stopped drumming in their hearts? this is one of those rare times i sort of agree with dos8dos

 

lol yeah about the food shortage, they're already making knock off eggs, which is one of the craziest things I've ever heard of, fake eggs. But for a country that counterfeits everything (even entire villages and communities) it's not that too big of a stretch.

 

I don't think the spratly's has enough to power China for a long time. and besides that, they were after those rocks for a long time now, even when they were booming.

 

Spreading socialist agenda, is just a little too short sighted, I mean there's a lot of other ways to do that. And as for taking advantage of the US decline, well they already have the US by its financial balls.

Edited January 15, 2014 by Larry

[heatseeker0714]

It'll be hard for us to invoke the MDT if the Chinks take Pag-asa because as the US have already stated more than a couple of times, they don't take sides on sovereignty disputes, ergo, the KIG.

 

If however the Chinks do take out a Philippine Government owned aircraft or vessel, then that's a different scenario, Philippine troops, well, not bad enough.

 

Question is, will the Yanks come in time... With their population's "Sawa" for war, they can drag their feet in helping us, which the Chinks obviously know and will take advantage of...

 

Haven't you guys noticed their explicit statement that NO FILIPINO TERRITORY will be taken? that's a clear signal to the US that only the "DISPUTED" islands will be targeted and that they have nothing against the mainland Philippines. which gives the US the confidence to drag their feet in coming to our aid...

 

Besides, don't trust the US too much... Sila nga numero unong promotor nung BJE (Blow Job ek-ek) Bangsamoro Juridicial Entity MOA-AD nung kapampangang klepto... Mas gugustuhin ng Kano na magkahatihati tayo because it'll be a lot easier for them to deal with the Bangsamoro Elders to have their bases there than to deal with the 2 chambers of the Philippine Congress...

 

Realpolitik my dear friends... Realpolitik...

Edited January 15, 2014 by heatseeker0714

[fatchubs]

in your opinion, just what self interest did it serve when it (government and private sector) sent billions of dollars in aid for Yolanda?

 

 

First and foremost just to clarify ....did the US really sent BILLIONS of DOLLARS in aid to our Yolanda victims already?

 

 

 

I wouldn't want to second guess what "self interest" it did serve the US when they donated. So let me answer your question this way, in general countries and various private sector donated to the victims of Yolanda because they wanted to help. But are we definitely sure that "self interest" was never a factor when they did it? Some companies donated their budget for their Christmas party to the Yolanda victims but why not a bigger amount than that since they can afford it anyway given that they earned good profits for the year? Some companies donated as part of their CSR but knowingly that this will bring them media mileage or whatever benefits. Maybe there were politicians out there too who donated relief goods in plastic bags with their names printed during times of calamities. Surely they just wanted to give aid don't they?

In Uncle Sam's case, in your opinion, can the US afford NOT to donate in aid for Yolanda even if donating was against their will? Well IMHO I don't think so. Just imagine what will the international community say to them or the 'IMAGE" they would be projecting. In fact even if they decided that they really wanted to help or donate can they afford to just donate a "token amount" say like a million dollars or should they go all out say to the point of funding the rehab program for the victims? What do you think came across their minds when they make these decisions? Did they not consider their "interest" when making said decisions? Your guess/opinion is good as mine.

I think same goes when deciding whether or not to give assistance and determining what kind of assistance will be given to us when we talk about the MDT.

[Larry]

Sadly, I agree with you. The fight for the Spratlys will be the Philippines alone unless the main Phil. Islands are also attacked. Especially under this President, there will be some spin about that of course and remember we do owe too much already. As a veteran of the Iraq and Afghan wars I think you all think too much of your own importance especially since we are tired of fighting on behalf of somebody whose worth, value and quality is questionable for various reasons (the Phils. did run us out of Subic and leave the US coalition in Iraq at the time when the fighting was heavy.) As a Pilipino I will not like that but it is as it is and thus lament the loss.

 

 

I disagree with half of this.

 

Yes the spratly's will be lost, indefinitely, to the Philippines. Should China take it by force, the US and the rest of the UN can only watch at the onset of this event.

 

But the international community will not take this sitting down. A China that is allowed to take whatever it wants without fear of repercussion, will be a very dangerous country. It's also a great excuse to go to war.

 

BUT should the international community retake those rocks, the chance of it being returned to the Philippines is almost zero. For one thing it's not just China that lays claim to it, so it will be some sort of literally floating un-ownable piece of earth, whose ownership will be decided on by the powers that be.

 

So whatever happens we will lose those islands. The only way out of it, that I can see, is to aggressively stake a claim on those islands and have an international court rule on it within 2014.

 

Again the US won't rush to our aid because it wants to protect us, it has interests that supersede our own safety.

[boibastos]

In my opinion, these guys are just pushing the envelope as far as it can. In the vernacular "tignan natin kung hangang san kakayanin." China will most definitely get routed. I'm not even sure if it can outgun Japan which, if I'm not mistaken, has military hardware that is only one or two generations older than the US.

 

I don't know about that, man. China's military is one of the biggest in the world and japan is hamstrung by its laws and international commitment from wwii to only maintain a self defense force. Plus, i think everyone that has any kind of electronic gadget would know that the chinese are not lacking in terms of manufacturing ability. It's kind of frightening to think how much weaponry they can produce if they shift to full war production.

 

If the chinese ever get to figure out how to effectively deploy that military of theirs overseas, the asian region will, to put it mildly, will have a bit of a problem. That aircraft carrier of theirs is a step in that direction.

[dungeonbaby]

emphasis mine:

 

First and foremost just to clarify ....did the US really sent BILLIONS of DOLLARS in aid to our Yolanda victims already?

 

I wouldn't want to second guess what "self interest" it did serve the US when they donated. So let me answer your question this way, in general countries and various private sector donated to the victims of Yolanda because they wanted to help. But are we definitely sure that "self interest" was never a factor when they did it? Some companies donated their budget for their Christmas party to the Yolanda victims but why not a bigger amount than that since they can afford it anyway given that they earned good profits for the year? Some companies donated as part of their CSR but knowingly that this will bring them media mileage or whatever benefits. Maybe there were politicians out there too who donated relief goods in plastic bags with their names printed during times of calamities. Surely they just wanted to give aid don't they?

In Uncle Sam's case, in your opinion, can the US afford NOT to donate in aid for Yolanda even if donating was against their will? Well IMHO I don't think so. Just imagine what will the international community say to them or the 'IMAGE" they would be projecting. In fact even if they decided that they really wanted to help or donate can they afford to just donate a "token amount" say like a million dollars or should they go all out say to the point of funding the rehab program for the victims? What do you think came across their minds when they make these decisions? Did they not consider their "interest" when making said decisions? Your guess/opinion is good as mine.

I think same goes when deciding whether or not to give assistance and determining what kind of assistance will be given to us when we talk about the MDT.

 

in other words, by your own reckoning, self-interest was not likely the only motivation to provide aid.

 

losing face was not likely to be the primary motivator. i say that in light of the sheer volume, and the type of aid we received from the US, at a time when that country is economically vulnerable. how much does it cost to bring a carrier and all that equipment over? how much does it cost to bring all that manpower over - including fuel, personnel cost? what kind of aid was received? what millions did the private sector send? if it was just worried about losing face, the US could have easily scaled down its efforts and still been deemed a decent nation. but that's not the point.

 

the point was to establish how certain you were that self-interest is always the first concern. and to point out... that if the main motivation during the Yolanda relief efforts was the desire to help, and we got that much aid, then a self-serving interest (pick one among the many that have been outlined on this thread such as access to the energy-rich spratlys) would logically lead to the MDT definitely being honored (with a physical presence).

Edited January 15, 2014 by dungeonbaby

[boibastos]

Yes, China's military is one of the biggest in terms of infantry. After all, they are the most populous nation on earth. But in terms of technology, they may be years or decades even from the US. China may have the advantage in manpower but in terms of firepower and technology, the US takes the cake. If I'm not mistaken, Japan is forbidden to be the aggressor but can only defend itself from aggression as per its Constitution.

 

In my opinion, the Asian region will have a problem if the military technology of China is at par or at least close with that of the US. If China closes the gap in terms of the technology and firepower of US hardware, then even the US will have a problem.

 

By the way, China's carrier is a second-hand, late 80s Soviet carrier which was refurbished by the Chinese navy. If it were to go against a US super carrier, which has a battle group, the hunter-killer submarines of this battle group will sink it easily. That is if the F-18s on the super carrier don't get to it first.

 

No argument there about that carrier or that the chinese military tech may not be at par with that of the US now. But remember, the chinese are already throwing their weight around in its asian maritime disputes even without new war toys. And notice that uncle sam's naval battlegroups are nowhere in sight. Doesn't really inspire confidence that the US and its justice league friends will throw down the next time china wants to build a hotel for its soldiers in the disputed islands.

[hit05]

The mainland Chinese in the country is able to corrupt public officials and are in fact gaining a monopoly in the exploitation of our Natural Resources.

 

During the aftermath of typhoon Yolanda, the NPA was roaming in armed groups to confiscate vital supplies like water from the hard hit residents. Some of the commercial areas which were intact after the calamity were also looted. For two days, lawlessness spread while the national government and media failed to report what is happening. A TV program with first-hand narration by an EYEWITNESS declared that many lives were lost due to dehydration and the fact that the survivors had no food while EXPOSED to windy and wet conditions of the storm. Instead of helping save lives, the NPA struck the towns isolated by debris and lack of communications resulting to the death of unarmed survivors and scores of dying women and children in the streets deprived of food, water, dry clothes and shelter.

 

According to a controversial account of victims, it was only AFTER the US military was notified and asked to help that the national government made public appearance of concerned action. An announcement and OFFICIAL REPORT to the presidential team by the DPWH stated the resumption of normal road traffic to the affected zones. The longest bridge in the country, San Juanico was cleared as officially passable. The nationwide announcement encouraged people from other places to travel to the affected areas to check on friends, relatives or property.

 

However in a few short hours, the Agriculture Secretary over ride the previous clearance of safe passage via San Juanico. He warned that aid to the area is not advisable since there was a THREAT to life and an absolute chance of getting killed. This announcement disturbed the media staff who cannot believe what was happening. Many were preparing for transfer of vital relief goods say their efforts are undermined by the travel advisory.

 

The next day, media reported that the bridge has been blocked by at least 100 ABANDONED vehicles. They cannot explain what happened to the people who have been encouraged to use the bridge because it was officially cleared as passable. Slowly within a few days, unidentified bodies floating on the area were found. While officials in government were publicly condemning the presence of US military and were moving to treat them as outlaws, a Chinese medical ship set off to the calamity area. At least a week passed before this supposed Chinese medical mission reported the retrieval of at least 100 typhoon victims in waters close to San Juanico bridge.

 

All these facts are recorded. Some of the eyewitness accounts were even made into a video that was televised nationwide.

 

The question now is why did the administration know about the problem of NPAs massacre of civilians? The mere fact that they warned media of getting killed is enough proof that they know about the MURDERS. Moreover, why was the US Military presence a MAJOR threat to the area while the Chinese vessel had safe passage? The Chinese vessel was supposed to be a medical mission to help save lives but instead it was used to retrieve bodies of dead or missing which they AUTOMATICALLY claimed to be VICTIMS of the typhoon rather than MURDERED by the NPA. How can they play forensics team in the guise of medical relief for typhoon victims? Was the Chinese vessel there exactly to cover up the murders of these civilians? Moreover the top military official who estimated the number of victims approaching 5000 was made to resign while the NBI team suspended their tagging activity during the new year holidays as mass graves were formally televised to be temporary until the break is over.

 

Such scene is a repeat of what happened in Cagayan de Oro where the Chinese Ambassador personally supervised the retrieval of bodies. The cause of death in Cagayan de Oro was illegal logging where several huge logging tractors ploughed into whole barrios instantly killing hundreds if not thousands. Media reported 2 missing local policemen who reported for work AFTER the typhoon and on sunny conditions - later to be pronounced dead and OFFICIALLY among the victims of the typhoon. The huge tractors had DENR stickers and permits despite the total log ban in effect. They remain underwater as proof of the cause of deaths of many who were hurriedly put in mass graves without autopsy as to the cause of deaths.

 

Filipinos are living their own version of the Holocaust and are systematically being eliminated and buried in mass graves by their own government.

[sonnyt111]

Maybe but when you come down to it, the US will lose face if RP decides to invoke the MDT and the US won't honor it.

Not only will the US lose face if doesn't honor the MDT which the Philippines invoked. Its other partners not only in Asia but in Europe as well may cease trusting their American ally which may have severe repercussions for the United States. Treaties aren't something to be treated lightly. They're meant to be honored and followed.

 

America may lose more than she bargained for if ever she doesn't honor her international commitments. Nobody will ever trust the United States again.

 

Besides, America is a country that seems to be always looking to pick a fight. Their nation has been involved in war since it was founded. Wars were fought in the 18th 19th, 20th and 21st centuries. The worst war was the War among the States (the American Civil War).

 

Since the collapse of the former Soviet Union, there hasn't been any other military super power to challenge the USA....until now. But times have changed. As Larry mentioned in another thread about warfare in the future with the use of malware, Trojans, viruses, etc. maybe the Americans want to infect Chinese industries and its capability to mass produce weapons for war. They've done it to Iran's nuclear facility.

 

Perhaps America would like to go toe to toe against China, a country with military might but not much experience in warfare. Compared to the Americans whose history is steeped in bloody wars, China's blood letting came about because of purges by the communists under Mao tse Tung. The Chinese virtually have no hands-on experience in war-fare. The United States, Japan, Vietnam and even the Philippines have.

 

The Chinese know this and are trying to weigh their options carefully. But when all is said and done, China doesn't want to go to war with America and her allies.

 

All they want is to claim the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea because vast oil and gas reserves lie deep under the ground which the Chinese need desperately to sustain their overheating economy. It's all about setting its eyes on the resources it needs and going all out to claim their stake, even threatening nations that dare get in the way.

 

I don't know if the Chinese have determined exactly which part of the South China Sea holds the most amount of oil and natural gas. So since it's not sure, it might as well claim the entire area as belonging to them. And in their attempt to enforce this claim, they send out warships which intimidate the navies of other countries.

 

The moment China does something that will seriously put American interests in danger is the day the Americans will confront the Chinese militarily. That day hasn't happened yet. Not for a very long time to come in my opinion.

 

 

 

 

[sonnyt111]

In a numbers game where the Chinese vastly outnumber the Americans, it might be good to use this analogy: You have 500 young boys taking up ROTC. So far all they do is march up and down the field for 2 years now.

 

They may be allotted one M16 assault rifle each but have hardly had a chance to use it during ROCT because of budget restraints.

 

Anyway the school where the cadets are training are attacked by 50 heavily armed men composed of former marines, army grunts and members of the Special Weapons and Tactics. These 50 heavily armed men have had actual battle training, know how to k*ll in the blink of an eye, They are battle hardened troops but there's just 50 of them.

 

You think the 500 inexperienced cadets, though they may be armed, would stand a chance against these battle hardened troops even if they're in the minority? I'll put my bet on the success of the 50 experienced military force who know what they're doing while the kids don't.

 

So the Chinese may have the numbers but they're totally inexperienced since they've never been to war before. The Americans are fewer but are battle hardened soldiers who've fought various campaigns on different fronts over so many years and have perfected their weapons systems. And they have all the high tech weapons where they can take out Chinese port with drones or even more sophisticated aircraft. The only weapon that the Americans are afratid of would probably by nuclear weapons of China.

 

 

 

[fatchubs]

1389799316[/url]' post='9086140']

emphasis mine:

 

 

 

in other words, by your own reckoning, self-interest was not likely the only motivation to provide aid.

 

losing face was not likely to be the primary motivator. i say that in light of the sheer volume, and the type of aid we received from the US, at a time when that country is economically vulnerable. how much does it cost to bring a carrier and all that equipment over? how much does it cost to bring all that manpower over - including fuel, personnel cost? what kind of aid was received? what millions did the private sector send? if it was just worried about losing face, the US could have easily scaled down its efforts and still been deemed a decent nation. but that's not the point.

 

the point was to establish how certain you were that self-interest is always the first concern. and to point out... that if the main motivation during the Yolanda relief efforts was the desire to help, and we got that much aid, then a self-serving interest (pick one among the many that have been outlined on this thread such as access to the energy-rich spratlys) would logically lead to the MDT definitely being honored (with a physical presence).

 

 

 

Either you or i can be certain about what really transpired during the decision making process regarding the aid sent. Was self interest never really a factore? This cannot be answered with certainty unless you are there and was part of the decision makers. What you are saying is your opinion, same as mine based on how we view things and our personal beliefs.

None the less as i pointed out, it is but human to always look after ones interest first. Otherwise, why do we set a limit to the aid we give and not just give totally what we have. Self interest may not necessarily be what they will gain from it but also what they need to protect. iMHO ... Generally speaking It may or may not be the primary factor but will always be a factor. It is but human to look after our interest in any decision we make.

 

Finally, i cannot quite equate a direct corelation on the act of giving humanitarian aid to the victims of yolanda as against say giving aid as per the MDT. The latter is not as simple as the first. I don't see China reacting negatively to the aid the US gave to the yolanda victims as against the US providing aid to the Philippines in relation to the issue on this thread. You never will consider providing aid might escalate to a war between the US and China when aid was given to the victims of Yolanda dont you?

Edited January 15, 2014 by fatchubs

[Larry]

In a numbers game where the Chinese vastly outnumber the Americans, it might be good to use this analogy: You have 500 young boys taking up ROTC. So far all they do is march up and down the field for 2 years now.

 

They may be allotted one M16 assault rifle each but have hardly had a chance to use it during ROCT because of budget restraints.

 

Anyway the school where the cadets are training are attacked by 50 heavily armed men composed of former marines, army grunts and members of the Special Weapons and Tactics. These 50 heavily armed men have had actual battle training, know how to k*ll in the blink of an eye, They are battle hardened troops but there's just 50 of them.

 

You think the 500 inexperienced cadets, though they may be armed, would stand a chance against these battle hardened troops even if they're in the minority? I'll put my bet on the success of the 50 experienced military force who know what they're doing while the kids don't.

 

So the Chinese may have the numbers but they're totally inexperienced since they've never been to war before. The Americans are fewer but are battle hardened soldiers who've fought various campaigns on different fronts over so many years and have perfected their weapons systems. And they have all the high tech weapons where they can take out Chinese port with drones or even more sophisticated aircraft. The only weapon that the Americans are afratid of would probably by nuclear weapons of China.

 

this is correct.

 

China has all the toys but they don't know how to use it.

 

AND you have to remember that China's military is largely a bureaucracy. The best soldiers don't always get command posts, positions are usually assigned based on the politics of the organization. So you'll have sons of such and such minister or general occupying command positions in the Chinese military. Contrast this with the American military where it's largely a meritocracy; you only move up if you can produce quantifiable results. Only the best and the brightest get command positions, anyone who gets up there by accident is automatically flushed out.

 

So you have, one side, a military that's more experienced and is led by capable commanders versus a large force manned by the greenest of all soldiers and led by incapable commanders.

 

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