The End of the American Century?

[dungeonbaby]

We will probably never know the truth regarding the actual incidence of crime in the US because of the vague, confusing, and oftentimes conflicting data submitted by various government agencies, made even more complicated with the way media highlights or downplays these reports. In that sense I believe public perception will always prevail over "facts."

 

If you think my stats were incomplete, then naturally I respect this view. Many may agree with my analysis many won't. That's what debate is all about. I already mentioned to you early on that many disagreements occur in the medical, scientific, political, religious, etc. fields. It's all a matter of perception, of appreciation of data presented, of certain biases a person may have but won't admit or even cognitive of, of pre-conceived notions (I'm sometimes guilty of this) and a host of other factors that can affect the way a person stands on a certain issue. That said, I now consider this issue closed. Thanks for the interesting discussion Ms. Dungeonbaby. Hope to hear more of your opinions in other forums.

 

how in the world can perception prevail over facts? what kind of debate are you hoping to have if all arguments are based on feeling and perception? if i feel a person committed a crime, can that person be jailed or put to death over my perception?

 

 

your stats are incomplete and old. there is no contesting that. to show homicide rates today, you obviously need to go beyond 1990.

 

 

[dungeonbaby]

Ma'am before you get all worked up, let me try to clear things up regarding the use of quotation marks. First off let me attach for your reference the original post I made (Post 233). You will notice that I did not use any quotation marks when I substituted my own words for the original words contained in the article.

Second, I used quotation marks in post 234 as a way to highlight my original posts, to highlight the actual words used in the article and finally I used quotation marks to highlight your own reply. I DID NOT use any deception when I used quotation marks to highlight my original statement, the actual words used in the article, and your own reply.

 

The use of quotation marks was for your own benefit. Since the discussion had gotten really long, I thought I might try to help you understand my points better if I highlighted previous statements I made with the use of quotation marks. So you could clearly differentiate what was previously written from the current statements I was making. I would have used a color highlighter or even changed the color of the fonts but I couldn't get these to work. Hence the use of quotation marks.

 

I hope this clears things up.

 

you're right, the original had no quotation marks. my mistake.

[Bugatti Veyron]

Here are some photos of the Philippines at the turn of the 19th century. Photos show the American military occupation of the Philippines.

 

http://www.flickr.com/photos/johntewell/sets/72157627639386021/show/

[maxiev]

Here's an old video of what Manila looked like under American administration. Just 3 years before Japan invaded the Philippines.

 

Manila, Queen of the Pacific 1938

 

[hit05]

For many who do not have access to quality books, the Last Samurai movie offers an insight to the American system too. It shows the issues about the Meiji Restoration and the modernization process of feudal Japan. We love the Japanese for their honor but in this movie, the characters depict the struggle to preserve the old virtues and renew respect for experience amid change. Yup, this is a Hollywood movie but many elements in the scrip/novel resemble historical events that took place although presentation may have differed considerably.

 

The movie highlights the plurality of interests of the American System. Like Imperial Japan, it had to struggle with prioritizing change. Mercantilism was strongest during this era and industries were expanding with technological innovation and aggressive salesmanship. In history, the Meiji Restoration and Japanese modernization to an Imperial power was a direct result of refusal by Admiral Perry to allow a Japanese commoner to board his ship set sail to the USA. Japan knew that unless they industrialize, they will surely lose sovereignty because technology has changed drastically.

 

However, beyond the limited time frame of the movie, history also shows that industrialization corrupted the Japanese. It gave them power but it had used it poorly. The poor use of power was never so grave than in WW2 when they joined the war late. The Japanese succumb to NAZI propaganda that Germany was winning the war effort and would soon take over the world.

 

In those days, Japan was like China today and copied much from the success of others. In the same fashion the NAZI party seized power, Japan suspended parliament in favor of martial rule, with a ranking military officer assuming the role of premier and taking over as dictator. Then they embarked on the same mean atrocious and relentless effort to expand territory in surprise, overpowering blitzkrieg attacks. But it lacks intelligence and did not realize the war was at a tail end with Germany losing much of its war machine and skilled officers in a prolonged and harsh Russian winter.

[Ryuji_tanaka]

I find obama's militarization of the DHS, plus drone strikes against US citizens, indefinite detention, his executive orders, etc reminiscent of what Hitler, Mao, Stalin, and Lenin tried. he is trying to outlaw gun ownership at the same time that the DHS is being set up as some kind of private army/praetorian guard. This could precipitate a violent reaction or civil war that could turn the US to a basketcase.

[dungeonbaby]

I find obama's militarization of the DHS, plus drone strikes against US citizens, indefinite detention, his executive orders, etc reminiscent of what Hitler, Mao, Stalin, and Lenin tried. he is trying to outlaw gun ownership at the same time that the DHS is being set up as some kind of private army/praetorian guard. This could precipitate a violent reaction or civil war that could turn the US to a basketcase.

 

Obama is far from being Hitler, Stalin, or Mao. i doubt he will cause civil war.

 

but okay some of his people's moves such as trying to diminish the constitution are reminiscent of totalitarian regimes that want power centralized.

 

your first page replies were more on point though.

 

 

[hit05]

I find obama's militarization of the DHS, plus drone strikes against US citizens, indefinite detention, his executive orders, etc reminiscent of what Hitler, Mao, Stalin, and Lenin tried. he is trying to outlaw gun ownership at the same time that the DHS is being set up as some kind of private army/praetorian guard. This could precipitate a violent reaction or civil war that could turn the US to a basketcase.

You have a point. Maybe Obama wants to spark a civil war in the USA. He actually cherished the role of Abraham Lincoln and even had a speech on a train coach ala Gettysburg Address as an activity for his inaugural day speech when he was elected first time as president.

[Ryuji_tanaka]

Obama is far from being Hitler, Stalin, or Mao. i doubt he will cause civil war.

 

but okay some of his people's moves such as trying to diminish the constitution are reminiscent of totalitarian regimes that want power centralized.

 

your first page replies were more on point though.

 

 

He is provoking a lot of people with what he is doing with the First and Second Amendment. It wouldn't be that worrying if he also isn't moving for the militarization of the DHS. If he does provoke a civil war, it would cause fragmentation of the US, like what happened before with the USSR.

[jacuzzi]

The topic is defective in the sense that a little less than a hundred years ago, the USA too was in a similar predicament when the whole world suffered from the effects of economic depression. This struggle to overcome economic change lingered and progressed into another world war.

 

 

 

 

Shortly after WW2, the USA mistakenly entered the Vietnam War which became too expensive after the OPEC controlled world prices of Oil in the 70's. Again, that would have been the end of the American decade yet it was not. The USA continued to move forward and during the Reagan era, overcame competition with the USSR, putting an end to the Cold War.Today may yet be the USA's darkest moment as the US President may turn out to be a dud and have more in common with Osama Bin Laden than Abe Lincoln, but I feel that the spirit that makes America great is not lost. Who knows, the US system may change permanently and its administration become professionalized rather than politicized perpetually.

 

 

[jacuzzi]

The topic is defective in the sense that a little less than a hundred years ago, the USA too was in a similar predicament when the whole world suffered from the effects of economic depression. This struggle to overcome economic change lingered and progressed into another world war.

 

 

 

 

Shortly after WW2, the USA mistakenly entered the Vietnam War which became too expensive after the OPEC controlled world prices of Oil in the 70's. Again, that would have been the end of the American decade yet it was not. The USA continued to move forward and during the Reagan era, overcame competition with the USSR, putting an end to the Cold War.Today may yet be the USA's darkest moment as the US President may turn out to be a dud and have more in common with Osama Bin Laden than Abe Lincoln, but I feel that the spirit that makes America great is not lost. Who knows, the US system may change permanently and its administration become professionalized rather than politicized perpetually.

 

 

[Bugatti Veyron]

The topic is defective in the sense that a little less than a hundred years ago, the USA too was in a similar predicament when the whole world suffered from the effects of economic depression. This struggle to overcome economic change lingered and progressed into another world war.

 

 

 

 

Shortly after WW2, the USA mistakenly entered the Vietnam War which became too expensive after the OPEC controlled world prices of Oil in the 70's. Again, that would have been the end of the American decade yet it was not. The USA continued to move forward and during the Reagan era, overcame competition with the USSR, putting an end to the Cold War.Today may yet be the USA's darkest moment as the US President may turn out to be a dud and have more in common with Osama Bin Laden than Abe Lincoln, but I feel that the spirit that makes America great is not lost. Who knows, the US system may change permanently and its administration become professionalized rather than politicized perpetually.

 

 

The USA mistakenly entered the Vietnam war on the mistaken assumption that the "domino effect" would apply to other Southeast Asian nations. Others may argue that the assumption wasn't a mistake at all but rather, it was used to justify the need for American intervention around the world.

[sonnyt111]

The USA mistakenly entered the Vietnam war on the mistaken assumption that the "domino effect" would apply to other Southeast Asian nations. Others may argue that the assumption wasn't a mistake at all but rather, it was used to justify the need for American intervention around the world.

This probability was first suggested by Dwight D. Eisenhower in the 1950's when the Cold War was in its infancy. This principle was later escalated and institutionalized by the Administration of John F. Kennedy.

[jacuzzi]

The USA mistakenly entered the Vietnam war on the mistaken assumption that the "domino effect" would apply to other Southeast Asian nations. Others may argue that the assumption wasn't a mistake at all but rather, it was used to justify the need for American intervention around the world.

Maybe what you mean is the change of guards in Washington after a Catholic President, JFK opened the gap in policy that allowed Vietnam War to happen. Vietnam is a mistake which even his Vice President -successor Johnson in a biographical movie did not like despite being BLAMED for the conflict.

 

 

Truth is the diplomatic ties of JFK made entry to Vietnam happen. The Kennedy patriarch had been US Ambassador to the Court of St James during the term of the longest serving US President to date, FDR. The older Kennedy is a media magnate, king maker of FDR who mistakenly wanted the British to embrace Hitler when London was being bombed leading to the British Government under Sir Winston Churchill to ask the US to reprieve the US diplomat a few months before D-Day. Think of the humility that the Kennedy clan underwent. Reader's Digest published the unknown story of JFK and showed the struggle and problems which created the determination of the siblings to gain prominence and political power.

 

Anyway, the obvious link to the French was the wife of JFK, Jacqueline, who got French descent. The pieces to the puzzle are supplied by the historical facts like the assassination of Kennedy brothers or the strategic role of Ted Kennedy in the rise of US President Obama.

 

I would not be surprised if the current environmental movement, which is rooted from journalism is likewise heavily influenced by a Kennedy too. Environmentalism is the reason for high oil prices and the closure of industries in the guise of preservation of the planet. The RH Bill locally is likewise promoted as an environmental advocacy and if we remember Senator Sotto was linked to a speech by RFK in an apparent attempt to punish opposition to the RH Bill.

 

 

 

 

 

[maxiev]

Maybe what you mean is the change of guards in Washington after a Catholic President, JFK opened the gap in policy that allowed Vietnam War to happen. Vietnam is a mistake which even his Vice President -successor Johnson in a biographical movie did not like despite being BLAMED for the conflict.

 

 

Truth is the diplomatic ties of JFK made entry to Vietnam happen. The Kennedy patriarch had been US Ambassador to the Court of St James during the term of the longest serving US President to date, FDR. The older Kennedy is a media magnate, king maker of FDR who mistakenly wanted the British to embrace Hitler when London was being bombed leading to the British Government under Sir Winston Churchill to ask the US to reprieve the US diplomat a few months before D-Day. Think of the humility that the Kennedy clan underwent. Reader's Digest published the unknown story of JFK and showed the struggle and problems which created the determination of the siblings to gain prominence and political power.

 

Anyway, the obvious link to the French was the wife of JFK, Jacqueline, who got French descent. The pieces to the puzzle are supplied by the historical facts like the assassination of Kennedy brothers or the strategic role of Ted Kennedy in the rise of US President Obama.

 

I would not be surprised if the current environmental movement, which is rooted from journalism is likewise heavily influenced by a Kennedy too. Environmentalism is the reason for high oil prices and the closure of industries in the guise of preservation of the planet. The RH Bill locally is likewise promoted as an environmental advocacy and if we remember Senator Sotto was linked to a speech by RFK in an apparent attempt to punish opposition to the RH Bill.

I'm sorry but I must admit I cannot see the correlation between America's entry into the Vietnam conflict which escalated under the Administration of JFK and what you said about Joe Kennedy Sr.'s sympathetic stand toward the Nazis nor how the Vietnam conflict ties in with Ted Kennedy's strategic role in the rise of President Obama. Neither do I see any connection between the increased American intervention in Vietnam with environmental issues and the RH bill. And how does Tito Sotto fit into the discussion about the Vietnam War? The only link I know between Tito Sotto and the family of Robert Kennedy is the issue of plagiarism.

[paeng]

U.S. oil production started dropping after 1970, and more countries were having their dollars redeemed, leading to the Nixon shock. A few years later, the trade deficits began.

 

The Reagan years led to increasing debt, part of three decades of deregulation, borrowing, and spending. The result is over $400 trillion in unregulated derivatives, more than $200 trillion in future liabilities, tens of trillions in debt for households and corporations, and the first of what will be a series of economic crashes leading to permanent economic crisis for the global economy coupled with the effects of peak oil and global warming.

[sonnyt111]

U.S. oil production started dropping after 1970, and more countries were having their dollars redeemed, leading to the Nixon shock. A few years later, the trade deficits began.

 

The Reagan years led to increasing debt, part of three decades of deregulation, borrowing, and spending. The result is over $400 trillion in unregulated derivatives, more than $200 trillion in future liabilities, tens of trillions in debt for households and corporations, and the first of what will be a series of economic crashes leading to permanent economic crisis for the global economy coupled with the effects of peak oil and global warming.

There is a saying that when America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. I think this is an accurate statement. What is bad for America is bad for the rest of the world economically. And the state of the American economy is today is less than ideal.

 

And I don't think the problem is limited to the US. Economic problems in Europe particularly Greece, Spain, and Ireland have had international repercussions which didn't spare the Philippines. Governments in these European Union nations are now practicing fiscal austerity measures to prevent their economies from collapsing. People living in those countries greatly resent these austerity measures but they have no choice but to bite the bullet because of the irresponsible acts of their past leaders.

 

It's surprising but it is easier for the Philippines to borrow money from the IMF/World Bank that countries like Greece, Spain and Ireland and a much lower interest rate to boot.

[oscartamaguchiblackface]

U.S. oil production started dropping after 1970, and more countries were having their dollars redeemed, leading to the Nixon shock. A few years later, the trade deficits began.

 

The Reagan years led to increasing debt, part of three decades of deregulation, borrowing, and spending. The result is over $400 trillion in unregulated derivatives, more than $200 trillion in future liabilities, tens of trillions in debt for households and corporations, and the first of what will be a series of economic crashes leading to permanent economic crisis for the global economy coupled with the effects of peak oil and global warming.

No wonder the US IRS is tightening its noose on US citizens living overseas. It's trying to help reduce this huge deficit. The IRS now requires banks around the world to disclose the names of US citizens who have deposits in their banks.

[oscartamaguchiblackface]

U.S. oil production started dropping after 1970, and more countries were having their dollars redeemed, leading to the Nixon shock. A few years later, the trade deficits began.

 

The Reagan years led to increasing debt, part of three decades of deregulation, borrowing, and spending. The result is over $400 trillion in unregulated derivatives, more than $200 trillion in future liabilities, tens of trillions in debt for households and corporations, and the first of what will be a series of economic crashes leading to permanent economic crisis for the global economy coupled with the effects of peak oil and global warming.

No wonder the US IRS is tightening its noose on US citizens living overseas. It's trying to help reduce this huge deficit. The IRS now requires banks around the world to disclose the names of US citizens who have deposits in their banks.

[maxiev]

BIR commissioner Kim Henares is doing some squeezing of her own. Problem is taxes aren't returned to the public in terms of public service as it is in the US. Americans may pay a lot in taxes but the government also gives back in terms of good public schools, excellent roads, efficient and effective law enforcement, unemployment benefits, etc. Over here, taxes are squandered by corrupt government officials on useless projects that benefit no one, on pork barrel allocations that corrupt senators use as they see fit, etc.

 

We are being shortchanged by this government. Before they tighten the screws on the citizens, they should try to put a lid on corruption first. So much money is lost to corrupt practices. And just like Meralco customers who must unfairly shoulder "system losses" (the euphemistic term of customers paying for stolen electricity) taxpayers must unfairly shoulder the cost of corruption in this country.

Edited March 16, 2013 by maxiev

[dungeonbaby]

http://www.salon.com...a_collapse_2025

 

 

How America will collapse (by 2025)

 

Oil Shock: Present Situation

 

One casualty of America's waning economic power has been its lock on global oil supplies. Speeding by America's gas-guzzling economy in the passing lane, China became the world's number one energy consumer this summer, a position the U.S. had held for over a century. Energy specialist Michael Klare has argued that this change means China will "set the pace in shaping our global future."

 

By 2025, Iran and Russia will control almost half of the world's natural gas supply, which will potentially give them enormous leverage over energy-starved Europe. Add petroleum reserves to the mix and, as the National Intelligence Council has warned, in just 15 years two countries, Russia and Iran, could "emerge as energy kingpins."

...

 

Compounding the problem, the Chinese and Indians have suddenly become far heavier energy consumers. Even if fossil fuel supplies were to remain constant (which they won't), demand, and so costs, are almost certain to rise -- and sharply at that. Other developed nations are meeting this threat aggressively by plunging into experimental programs to develop alternative energy sources. The United States has taken a different path, doing far too little to develop alternative sources while, in the last three decades, doubling its dependence on foreign oil imports. Between 1973 and 2007, oil imports have risen from 36 percent of energy consumed in the U.S. to 66 percent.

 

Oil Shock: Scenario 2025

 

The United States remains so dependent upon foreign oil that a few adverse developments in the global energy market in 2025 spark an oil shock. By comparison, it makes the 1973 oil shock (when prices quadrupled in just months) look like the proverbial molehill. Angered at the dollar's plummeting value, OPEC oil ministers, meeting in Riyadh, demand future energy payments in a "basket" of Yen, Yuan, and Euros. That only hikes the cost of U.S. oil imports further. At the same moment, while signing a new series of long-term delivery contracts with China, the Saudis stabilize their own foreign exchange reserves by switching to the Yuan. Meanwhile, China pours countless billions into building a massive trans-Asia pipeline and funding Iran's exploitation of the world largest percent natural gas field at South Pars in the Persian Gulf.

...

 

 

The oil shock that follows hits the country like a hurricane, sending prices to startling heights, making travel a staggeringly expensive proposition, putting real wages (which had long been declining) into freefall, and rendering non-competitive whatever American exports remained. With thermostats dropping, gas prices climbing through the roof, and dollars flowing overseas in return for costly oil, the American economy is paralyzed. With long-fraying alliances at an end and fiscal pressures mounting, U.S. military forces finally begin a staged withdrawal from their overseas bases.

 

so with that new Ohio State U study that has successfully removed the dirty in coal-powered energy, and with US coal reserves enough to last a hundred years - the oil shock scenario is beginning to go kaput, isn't it.

[hit05]

No wonder the US IRS is tightening its noose on US citizens living overseas. It's trying to help reduce this huge deficit. The IRS now requires banks around the world to disclose the names of US citizens who have deposits in their banks.

 

 

The trick is to keep the hen which lays the golden egg on close watch. Isn't that happening locally as well too? Taxation is being intensified and even residence certificates are being asked before dealing with government. The unified ID system is also being pushed.

 

The Bible enthusiast should be able to co-relate this drive to tag people as the mark of the beast. The tagging is all about prohibition of those without it from trade or from buy and sell. Have you ever wondered the restrictions and requirements of credit cards? Imagine these rules extending to all market transactions.

[Bugatti Veyron]

The trick is to keep the hen which lays the golden egg on close watch. Isn't that happening locally as well too? Taxation is being intensified and even residence certificates are being asked before dealing with government. The unified ID system is also being pushed.

 

The Bible enthusiast should be able to co-relate this drive to tag people as the mark of the beast. The tagging is all about prohibition of those without it from trade or from buy and sell. Have you ever wondered the restrictions and requirements of credit cards? Imagine these rules extending to all market transactions.

 

Hmmm....Now that you mention it....

[sonnyt111]

No wonder the US IRS is tightening its noose on US citizens living overseas. It's trying to help reduce this huge deficit. The IRS now requires banks around the world to disclose the names of US citizens who have deposits in their banks.

The American government is becoming more and more socialist in its economic policies while China, which had a communist economic policy not too long ago, is turning to unbridled capitalism. Part of dialectic materialism? How thesis evolves into anti-thesis?

[paeng]

The problem isn't reserves, as there are lots of that even for oil, but production rate vs. demand. That is, the energy returns for other sources of energy are lower, and thus production rate is unable to keep up with demand. That's why we are now resorting to non-conventional production:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/06/oil-production-and-consumption

which explains why oil prices are still high. To adjust to other sources of energy will require several decades:

http://www.businessinsider.com/131-years-to-replace-oil-2010-11

but we only have around a decade to make the transition, and the IEA argues that governments should have started at least a decade ago:

Meanwhile, demand even for non-conventional production continues to rise:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jan/30/china-burns-half-coal-worldwide

According to the IEA, we will need the equivalent of one Saudi Arabia every seven years just to meet global economic growth. When conventional production starts dropping, even more will be needed.

Finally, at best it is reported that total oil and gas production for North America will be around 12 Mb/d by the end of the decade. The current demand for the U.S. alone is 19 Mb/d.

Edited March 19, 2013 by paeng