The End of the American Century?

[paeng]

The US has it's own oil.

 

You're just a doomsday prophet.

 

U.S. oil production peaked back in 1970, and global energy production peaked in 1979.

 

Doomsday prophet? Try "realist".

[paeng]

The US is not standing in "all categories." Rather, it's the other way round, as seen in balance of trade, debt to GDP, overall debt, government liabilities, unemployment, etc. If any, the situation will only grow worse, as an economy based heavily on consumer spending and buried in debt is trying to "recover" by adding more debt. It gets worse when one looks at how the U.S. sheeple have been screwed by their financial elite and their foreign partners, with Washington essentially working for Wall Street.

 

Several of the "Arab dictators" who fell worked for and with the U.S. In several cases, Islamic fundamentalists have taken over and are now striking deals with China and others. So much for "moderates" taking over.

 

 

According to Goldman Sachs, BRIC and others will replace the U.S. But I don't think there will be a global leader, as that country will have to face the same problems as the U.S., which consists of flooding the global economy with paper currency and then increasing both debt and spending. Not that China is doing that right now.... In any event, if the U.S. military, Lloyd's of London, and other groups are correct:

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply

 

we will face the same conditions as the 1930s, i.e., currency and trade wars leading to resource wars, but worse given environmental damage and increasing resource demand. The high oil and food prices leading to greater social unrest worldwide coupled with growing unemployment is only one of several indicators to consider.

[compaqpresario]

I think last option for US is to stop the free trade agreements they initiated and start producing items they need in the US rather that import it from China.

[BrightestStar]

I think last option for US is to stop the free trade agreements they initiated and start producing items they need in the US rather that import it from China.

 

 

That's one option. But what they're doing is impose 1000% on Chinese textile.

[kenichi15]

Which country will replace the US? You think it's China?

 

 

could be. its a powerhouse in itself. has military might. strict foreign policy.

strong currency. growing economy.

and the u.s. owes china trillions of dollars.

 

again, could be.

[paeng]

About returning to production and protecting the economy, this will certainly take place due to peak oil and other problems, and there will be significant sacrifices. 70 pct of U.S. economic activity is based on consumer spending, 70 pct work in the service industry, and around 40 pct of war costs is funded through foreign loans. Most will have to return to factory and farm work, Wall Street will have to go back to Main Street, a middle class lifestyle (with 60 pct of families owning houses and the country using 250 million passenger vehicles, more than a third of the world's total) will essentially dissolve, and incredible military cuts will have to take place.

 

The bad news is that most--households, government, corporations, the military--will likely not accept major cuts on borrowing and spending and will instead point fingers at each other.

 

Ultimately, we may be looking at a situation similar to the 1930s, leading to currency wars, trade wars, then wars.

[Ryuji_tanaka]

Ultimately, we may be looking at a situation similar to the 1930s, leading to currency wars, trade wars, then wars.

War is a business....WWII is what got the US out of the Great Depression and turned it into a superpower. would not be surprised if they abetted a WWIII centered on the middle east to get their economy back up.

[paeng]

War is a business....WWII is what got the US out of the Great Depression and turned it into a superpower. would not be surprised if they abetted a WWIII centered on the middle east to get their economy back up.

 

Except that they no longer have the same manufacturing base they once had, an economy with 70 pct of activity based on consumer spending, 70 pct of the work force in the service industry, 40 pct of war costs based on foreign loans and passed on to the sheeple, probably 25 pct of their assets now controlled by foreigners, a military that essentially, with the government, works for multinational corporations, rising debts across the board with no more funny money left for more quantitative easing, global oil production that has remained relatively flat, and a larger global population coupled with greater environmental damage.

[bill_262003]

could be. its a powerhouse in itself. has military might. strict foreign policy.

strong currency. growing economy.

and the u.s. owes china trillions of dollars.

 

again, could be.

 

That's the problem with the Chinese economy. Their biggest client is still the U.S., if the U.S. stop buying from China, then that would be a big blow to the economy of China.

 

And Chinese companies knows this, that is why they are pouring back their money to buy shares in U.S. companies. The next move the Chinese government makes will be very critical if it is to surpass the U.S., it should ensure that the buying power of the chinese people is enough to sustain their economy. And it should provide an edge other than cheap goods to entice other markets to buy its products. Right now, China is not too cheap anymore. Their labor rates are getting higher, and soon they will loose their edge (cheap goods) in the economy. Higher wages means higher cost.

 

They could do what Japan or a Taiwan did in the 70s and 80s and re-invent their products. Prove to the world that Chinese products are not sub par. I personally know of several companies which opened factories in China, has since moved their factories to Vietnam and Indonesia due to the rising cost of Chinese labor (they are losing their edge).

 

In the end, if the chinese government does not provide enough support for the chinese businesses, the chinese businessmen would tend to invest their money back to the U.S. (or elsewhere). Therefore money will flow back into the U.S. (or outside of China). Just a few years back, when the U.S. economy was hit, China was able to weather it because the government initiated spending in infrastructures. That was how dependent they were to the U.S. economy.

 

Again, China could be the next powerhouse, but not yet. Not right now. As of now, U.S. is still the biggest spender (of all countries) and is in fact driving the economies of two upcoming economic powerhouses (China and India). Similarly, India is in the same boat as China, they are the 4th largest economy but their economy is driven by the BPO industry. Their top client is the U.S. so their economy goes up and down along with the U.S. economy. Some of the rich Indian businessmen will eventually invest their excess money in the U.S. and some of them will eventually migrate and be U.S. citizens.

[paeng]

Around 50 pct of China's GDP comes from fixed investments:

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/285463-china-s-fixed-investment-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-remains-high

[wendy testicleger]

The U.S. will remain as a world power with Filipinos at the helm.

[Ryuji_tanaka]

Except that they no longer have the same manufacturing base they once had, an economy with 70 pct of activity based on consumer spending, 70 pct of the work force in the service industry, 40 pct of war costs based on foreign loans and passed on to the sheeple, probably 25 pct of their assets now controlled by foreigners, a military that essentially, with the government, works for multinational corporations, rising debts across the board with no more funny money left for more quantitative easing, global oil production that has remained relatively flat, and a larger global population coupled with greater environmental damage.

 

Arab Spring, Libya, Syria, Iran, agitating the Palestinians.

[SaintPeter5858]

It will only come at the end of the world

[CharlesOngSy]

It will only happen at the end of the world

[SaintPeter5858]

The U.S. will remain as a world power with Filipinos at the helm.

 

 

Fil-Ams like Spoelstra or Bruno Mars?