South China/West Philippine Sea

[tk421]

An option would be to maintain status quo until that time that their goal and our's are aligned...

Edited January 18, 2013 by tk421

[dos8dos]

Protected coral reef may be 'irreversibly' damaged by US Navy ship (PHOTOS)

 

http://rt.com/files/art-and-culture/news/ship-wreck-reef-coral-philippines-262/january-2013-western-shows.jpg

[tk421]

So far they have the upper hand, the big bully in the neighborhood; that is the "status quo". We want a status quo ante when China was not as strong. Interesting times indeed.

 

Doesn't matter who has the upper hand now. As long as nobody moves to escalate the situation.

[TheSmilingBandit]

Protected coral reef may be 'irreversibly' damaged by US Navy ship (PHOTOS)

 

http://rt.com/files/art-and-culture/news/ship-wreck-reef-coral-philippines-262/january-2013-western-shows.jpg

Unless the corals are killed they will regrow in time, what kind of sensationalist crap is that article on ... irreversible damage indeed. It's obvious that the writer has the brain cells of a paramecium for a careless statement like that ... unless the sensationalist headline was someone else's idea.

[tk421]

Maybe this should be in a Sulu Sea thread...

[tk421]

Interesting times indeed, as the PH is planning to finally bring the case to international court.

 

http://www.malaya.com.ph/index.php/news/national/1599-sue-with-or-without-china

 

I wonder how this will play out.

[tk421]

We'll see... if that ever happens, then we would have exposed how uncivilized China is. I doubt China would want that to happen. After all they've been trying to convince the world all these years how vastly superior their culture is. But interesting...

 

From the article:

 

”The whole world knows that China has myriad more ships and aircraft than the Philippines. At day’s end, however, we hope to demonstrate that international law would be the great equalizer.”

[tk421]

Probably not, because China doesn't follow international laws unless it suits them.

[tk421]

Actually, I think you do have a point. Our society is so uneven right now that we need a drastic change to get us out of the gutter that we are in now. However, that doesn't automatically mean that we'll come out the better of it.

 

In any case, this trial would at least prove, once and for all, who is in the right. It's scary, but fascinating at the same time.

[Bugatti Veyron]

Probably not, because China doesn't follow international laws unless it suits them.

 

China now enjoys the respect of the rest of the world. To continue to enjoy that respect it must adhere to internatonal laws and decisions lest it be considered a pariah in the international community. I don't think China is willing to rock the boat insofar as its dealings with the west and the rest of the world.

 

Sure it can afford to be belligerent especially towards countries it doesn't respect such as the Philippines. But as soon as international condemnation is directed towards China, I think it will tow the line lest it lose the respect of the rest of the international community.

 

I think China still tries to maintain its prestige as one of the great nations on earth. The last thing it needs or wants is an erosion in that prestige. Hence the need to respect international laws and decisions.

 

Sure it may flex its muscle from time to time to show the world that it's a power to be reckoned with. But ultimately, it doesn't want to lose the status quo especially at this time that it has become an extremely wealthy nation.

Edited January 27, 2013 by Bugatti Veyron

[tk421]

China also knows how to bend the rules.

 

All they have to do is say that the Scarborough shoal and the Spratly's are domestic problems.

[Bugatti Veyron]

I'm not sure if people are aware of the fact that Facebook is restricted in China. My cousin, who works in Shanghai, says she cannot access her FB account while she's in China. Several years ago, on a trip to Shanghai, I was watching CNN in my hotel room. This was the time China was cracking down on dissent in Tibet. CNN was reporting the Chinese crackdown when lo and behold, the tv screen went blank!! CNN then went back on the air after a couple of minutes.

 

That's the extent that the Chinese government will resort to in order to control what the Chinese people are allowed and not allowed to hear. Ang tindi ng censorship sa China.

[heatseeker0714]

Captain will be fired and then some, somebody will get promoted.

 

Sure thing... A career ender for the CO of the ship... First he'll be assigned to a shore based post then get sh1t-canned in about 6 months to 1 year... A lot of US Navy CO have been fired for a lot less...

[sonnyt111]

China now enjoys the respect of the rest of the world. To continue to enjoy that respect it must adhere to internatonal laws and decisions lest it be considered a pariah in the international community. I don't think China is willing to rock the boat insofar as its dealings with the west and the rest of the world.

 

Sure it can afford to be belligerent especially towards countries it doesn't respect such as the Philippines. But as soon as international condemnation is directed towards China, I think it will tow the line lest it lose the respect of the rest of the international community.

 

I think China still tries to maintain its prestige as one of the great nations on earth. The last thing it needs or wants is an erosion in that prestige. Hence the need to respect international laws and decisions.

 

Sure it may flex its muscle from time to time to show the world that it's a power to be reckoned with. But ultimately, it doesn't want to lose the status quo especially at this time that it has become an extremely wealthy nation.

 

I tend to agree with this point of view. China has so far towed the line. Indicating it doesn't want to resort to brute force at least for now. It has a lot to lose if it miscalculates the reaction of the world.

[tk421]

But China has also shown that it tends to ignore UN/International laws when it suits them. They may not get into an all out war, but they'll sure use force and intimidation to get what they want.

[dungeonbaby]

The question is, will China honor the international court's verdict if it doesn't go in China's favor?

 

well, as a permanent member of the UN security council, they can veto any resolution the UN takes. yes?

[dungeonbaby]

Yes, and if this happens, the resolution would not be passed. However, paragraph 3 of Article 27 of the United Nations Charter states that "Decisions of the Security Council on all other matters shall be made by an affirmative vote of nine members including the concurring votes of the permanent members; provided that, in decisions under Chapter VI, and under paragraph 3 of Article 52, a party to a dispute shall abstain from voting."

 

 

 

true, they abstain from voting but, as i understand it, after having abstained they can still veto the resolution. maybe an expert can weigh in.

[airport-noo]

The thing is China doesn't adhere to international laws. A perfect example is the UNCLOS which the Chinese don't recognize. I'd rather call it grudging respect since China has been pushing its weight around. As far as the ASEAN, Japan, South Korea and India are concerned, China is an Asian pariah.

They want to use UNCLOS in their dispute with Japan though. The tricky thing about UNCLOS is that it allows countries to ratify it upon signing. In China's case they've made it clear in 2006 that disputes on ownership of land are outside the scope of UNCLOS. Instead they want to use UNCLOS in their argument that whole sea is an extension of their continental shelf. As opposed to RP and Japan who argue the less greedy 200-mile EEZ provision of UNCLOS. China will have a hard time proving their case since they they don't own the entire continental land mass.

[airport-noo]

Looks like China will reject arbitration. *shrugs* That was expected anyway. Their 9-dash line is the most irrational among the existing claims.

[sonnyt111]

You have a point here. The ASEAN hasn't taken a common stand regarding Scarborough Shoal. I'm no expert in geo-politics so I will defer to this article. In this article, it states that Cambodia's main concern when it comes to relations with China is the bilateral trade between these two nations. This is the reason why Cambodia is hesitant to make a stand on the Scarborough Shoal because being a party to the common stand may severely affect its economy. I also think this is the primary reason why the other ASEAN member nations are hesitant to make a stand against China. I'm not exactly sure to what extent each member nation's economy is dependent or tied to China but China may have a big part of each nation's economy based on the hesitation of the ASEAN member nations to make a common stand.

 

 

http://www.gmanetwor...pratlys-dispute

 

As for the ASEAN allies going to war with China, I don't think it would be practical as China would decimate each nation's army.

 

Yes you hit the nail on the head. When all is said and done, a nation's self interest will always prevail over any alliances it may have. Really, why should Singapore or even Cambodia bother itself by embroiling itself in a mess between China and the Philippines? They have enough problems of their own, many of which may be related to trade with China. Even Philippine exports to China were jeopardized back then. Remember those bananas we exported to China which it refused to accept during heightened tensions several months ago? I don't know if China has since softened its stand towards Philippine exports.

 

Similarly, if ever Malaysia and Indonesia, for example, got into a spat with China, I doubt very much if the Philippines will be willing to go out on a limb and get involved in these countries' problems. The Philippines has enough problems of its own and by getting embroiled in any dispute between Malaysia and China, the Philippines only gains the further enmity of China.

 

So I really doubt if a united front by ASEAN against China insofar as the disputed territories are concerned will ever become a reality because a nation's self interest will always take precedence over that of its alliances. Alliances are good as long as a country benfits from that alliance. An alliance will be ignored or placed on the back burner if the country doesn't benefit from it or if it risks losing something valuable.

 

It's funny how I first called for a united diplomatic front by ASEAN against China at the beginning of these discussions. Now, after thouroughly discussing it, exchanging ideas, and analyzing the situation more carefully, I have since reversed my original call for a united diplomatic front. I now realize this is a futile endeavor. It's like wishful thinking.

 

This is just my opinion, though. Others may look at things differently.

[Bugatti Veyron]

You can say it's a futile endeavor but you'll never know what the future holds. In the article below, Hillary Clinton wanted a common ASEAN stand on Scarborough Shoal. In my opinion, Hillary Clinton wanted a united ASEAN stand against China so that if China still continues its expansionist policies, the US can say that it's not only RP that is complaining against China. The US wants as many countries as possible to make a stand against China so that if it takes military actions against the Chinese, it can say that it is not doing it for one country, it is doing it for an entire region.

 

http://www.rappler.c...-on-scarborough

 

 

Yes I think this is an excellent analysis of the situation in this part of the world. You can imagine how complicated the life is of the US Secretary of State. No wonder Hillary got sick. Or at least pretended to be sick so she could retire from this extremely stressful job.

[Bugatti Veyron]

Somebody said "if we do not fight together, we will surely hang together".

 

One for all and all for one. The question is how will we finally unite as one bloc? The only way I see this happening is if the individual ASEAN nations are threatened in one way or another by China. Only then will we unite. But I think China is too smart to do anything which would provoke member ASEAN countries to band together. China knows that there is strength in a unified ASEAN so the last thing it wants is make member nations unite by threatening all the members of ASEAN at the same time.

 

China may threaten the Phlippines without necessarily antagonizing Malaysia or Vietnam. Or antagonize Vietnam without antagonizing Singapore or Indonesia. It will threaten a member nation but not all the ASEAN nations at once.

[Bugatti Veyron]

FYI:

February 2, 2013: Japan has agreed to provide the Philippines with twelve patrol boats. Ten will be 180 ton, 40 meter (124 foot) vessels and the other two are older 1,700 ton, 97 meter (300 foot) ships. The smaller boats have a crew of about 25 while the larger two have about fifty sailors to run it. The larger ship has a helicopter pad in the rear and carries three small speedboats for boarding parties. Both classes of ships are lightly armed, with a 20-30mm autocannon, machine-guns, and assault rifles. Both classes are seagoing patrol vessels, although the larger ships can stay out for weeks at a time compared to less than a week for the smaller boats.

 

The two larger ships are to arrive this year and the ten smaller ones next year. Japan and the Philippines have joined forces to confront Chinese claims to most of the reefs and rocks in the South China Sea and waters between China and South Korea and Japan. Japan has a lot of money and the Philippines is broke. Both nations have islands near their coasts that China claims.

 

This is the best news I've heard yet. Even if Japan is not part of ASEAN, it has been threatened repeatedly by its giant neighbor to the west. Tenisons were very high between China and Japan just recently and I suppose this is the reason Japan decided to enter into a direct alliance with the Phlippines against China. China made the mistake of antagoizing 2 countries more or less at the same time. If it antagonizes another country such as Vietnam, then maybe our party will increase from 2 to 3. The more countries China antagonizes, the better for us.

 

I kinda recall China getting into a spat with Russia recently. The Russias dealt the Chinese a decisive military blow. No retaliation from China. It knows that Russia is still a mighty military power and will not cross swords with its giant neighbor to the north.

[maxiev]

FYI:

"Japan has long relied on commercial photo satellites, and whatever they could get from the Americans. But for high resolution shots, on demand, of North Korea, and electronic eavesdropping from space, they need their own spy satellites. It is believed that the Japanese spy satellites are also being used to watch military developments in China and Russia."

 

This means that they can or are watching any signs of build-up like foe an invasion. The Japanese might be willing to share intel or at least give warning.

It would be great if Japan shares valuable intel with the Philippines and other ASEAN countries. But even if Japan warns us of an impending attack by China, what can we do militarily? The warning doesn't do us any good if we can't defend ourselves. I think what is needed desperately is a deterrent to prevent China from using force. I can think of no other nation that can act as a deterrent except the US. The mighty US military plus the fact that the China has a lot of money invested in the US may make China tow the line.

 

I hope this isn't wishful thinking.

Edited February 4, 2013 by maxiev

[tk421]

China just sent in warships to the area. Negotiations, it seems, are over.