South China/West Philippine Sea

[BnF95]

The thread of China: A Real Threat was closed because of OT posts, I hope the same doesn't happen to this thread.

 

Currently, it appears that China is taking on all comers with the Vietnamese trying to sneak in via the back door and the Philippines screaming as loudly as it can about territorial incursions.

 

First let's look at the players.

 

1. Peoples Republic of China (PRC), one of the class A powers of the world. It is considered the largest country in the world (population wise - 1,339,724,852).
   
2. Republic of the Philippines (RP), formerly a client state of the USA, it was the economic powerhouse of Asia until the mid-1980s when it dropped on the list. They are the 12th largest country in the world (population wise - 94,013,200).
   
3. Socialist Republic of Vietnam (Vietnam), formerly a client state of the PRC, now it has grown into an economic powerhouse in its own right. It is considered the 13th largest country in the world (population wise - 87,375,000).
   
4. Malaysia (Malaysia), formerly a British colony, the kingdom of Malaysia has grown in wealth and power, in no small part to its industrialization as well as the free trade they encourage. They are the 44th largest country in the world (population wise - 27,565,821).
   
5. Republic of China (Taiwan), the remnants of the old government of China, they are normally the plucky underdogs against the PRC. They are the 49th largest country in the world (population wise - 23,174,528).
   

 

Now some people would not be convinced by the sheer population difference. Let us look at things by order of economy.

 

The IMF lists the PRC as the number 2 economy in the world (GDP 10,085,708 million dollars) with Taiwan at number 18 (821,781 million dollars), Malaysia at number 29 (414,428 million dollars), RP at 33rd spot (351,370 million dollars), and Vietnam at #41 (276,567 million dollars).

 

The numbers for the World Bank is pretty close. China (#2), Malaysia (#29), Philippines (#35), and Vietnam (#44). The World Bank doesn't recognize Taiwan.

 

*ALL NUMBERS FOR POPULATION AND ECONOMY ARE BASED ON 2010 REPORTS

 

Now some people would say that it was just money. So let's look at hardware. Let us begin with the naval side.

 

1. PLAN or People's Liberation Army Navy may have the dumbest sounding name but with 275,000 active duty sailors and officers, operating 26 destroyers, 50 frigates, 3 ballistic missile nuclear submarines, 6 nuclear attack submarines, 53 diesel submarines, 62 amphibious warfare ships, 75 coastal missile ships, 29 large landing ships, 35 medium landing ships, and several hundred fast attack boats. This is the strongest navy in the area, bar none, specially with the support of 750++ aircraft and helicopters.
   
2. ROCN or Republic of China Navy has 38,000 active personnel manning 4 destroyers, 22 frigates, 4 diesel submarines, 80 patrol missile ships, 8 minesweepers, and 15 amphibious ships. This is backed up by 25 patrol aircraft and 28 helicopters.
   
3. PN or Philippine Navy has 24,000 personnel (though rumors have it that a large number are ghosts on the payroll) manning 2 frigates (1 of which is still in the US undergoing upgrades), 11 corvettes, 40 patrol boats, and 9 amphibious ships backed up by 10 aircraft (mostly transports) and 3 helicopters.
   
4. VPN or Vietnam People's Navy has 42,000 personnel (though rumors have it that a large number are ghosts in the payroll) manning 6 frigates (1 supposedly for Myanmar), 20 corvettes (though supposedly half are unable to sail), 18 patrol boats, 8 "minesweepers" (allegedly mine-layers instead), and 20 amphibious ships. In addition they have 2 baby submarines who may or may not be in working condition.
   
5. RMN or Royal Malaysian Navy has 14,000 personnel manning 8 fairly modern (2 of which are very modern) frigates, 6 patrol boats, and 1 submarine (which is rumored to have problems with submerging) backed up by 12 helicopters.

 

It is obvious that even were the PLAN only to send 1/3 of their naval strength against the combined forces of Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, and Malaysia that they would have an overwhelming force advantage. However PLAN does have its own share of problems. At least 1/3 of their navy must be kept ready near the Korean/Japanese area in case of a war there. In addition, they also have commitments of some vessels in the Indian Ocean. Still, without using unreasonable hypothesis, PLAN is only kept at home because of the fact that the USN does have the firepower to destroy them.

[2XS]

Wala yan sa mga matatapang dito sa MTC, kahit hubat-hubod hahamunin ang tsekwa sa gera, basta lang nakatago sila sa computer nila.

[dos8dos]

obviously the way it has been laid out by the thread starter china dominates in all aspect

 

in the game of dominance this area is ripe for a potential flash point

 

of all the claimants china was late in entering the game of occupation with regards to the spratleys islands coz it need to dedicate most of its military resources to the army due to its trouble with the soviets, chinas northern border needs to be protected then. when the soviet threat dwindled in the late 80s china was able to reallocate its military resources to the navy which now had grown considerably to dominate the south china sea where the spratlys group of islands are located.

 

of the rest of the claimants only taiwan & the phil occupy the largest & the 2nd largest islands while many of the inhabitable islands or islets are shared by the other claimant countries who chose to occupy the area to push their own interests. between taiwan & the phil, the phil has the weakest military making it the most vulnerable nation to be trampled upon by china.

 

now as filipinos who stationed troops in spratlys since the late 60s, do we owe it to them & their families to ensure that they are protected in case china become more aggressive in the future or do we allow ourselves to be overwhelmed with sheer numbers?

Edited July 7, 2011 by dos8dos

[zenislev]

this issue is just waiting to reach it's desired temperature for the flash point to kick in.

[Guest inverbrass]

Just noticed something glaring in the figures posted by the thread starter. Only the Philippines has no submarines. We really need to improve our navy.

[fireblaster]

Better to change the name south china sea into southeast asia sea.. so that PRC will not claim is theirs...

[BnF95]

obviously the way it has been laid out by the thread starter china dominates in all aspect

 

in the game of dominance this area is ripe for a potential flash point

 

of all the claimants china was late in entering the game of occupation with regards to the spratleys islands coz it need to dedicate most of its military resources to the army due to its trouble with the soviets, chinas northern border needs to be protected then. when the soviet threat dwindled in the late 80s china was able to reallocate its military resources to the navy which now had grown considerably to dominate the south china sea where the spratlys group of islands are located.

 

of the rest of the claimants only taiwan & the phil occupy the largest & the 2nd largest islands while many of the inhabitable islands or islets are shared by the other claimant countries who chose to occupy the area to push their own interests. between taiwan & the phil, the phil has the weakest military making it the most vulnerable nation to be trampled upon by china.

 

now as filipinos who stationed troops in spratlys since the late 60s, do we owe it to them & their families to ensure that they are protected in case china become more aggressive in the future or do we allow ourselves to be overwhelmed with sheer numbers?

Well if we want to be technical about it the Yuan Dynasty explored the Spratleys and claimed then within their national boundaries in their maps, as did the Ming and Qing Dynasties. For that matter so did Vietnam. Of course, old German maps of the area also includes these islands back in the late 1800s. Lets face it, so many nations have claims to the Spratleys, most of them are significantly stronger than the RP. For us to gain sole custody, we will have to beg the USA to back us up. The UN is a lot more iffy.

 

 

Just noticed something glaring in the figures posted by the thread starter. Only the Philippines has no submarines. We really need to improve our navy.

Malaysia's submarines have a problem submerging, thus I'm not sure they can properly be called submarines.

 

Better to change the name south china sea into southeast asia sea.. so that PRC will not claim is theirs...

We did that already, we call it the West Philippine Sea, of course, nobody else calls it that, to the rest of the world at large it is the China Sea.

[Guest inverbrass]

Well if we want to be technical about it the Yuan Dynasty explored the Spratleys and claimed then within their national boundaries in their maps, as did the Ming and Qing Dynasties. For that matter so did Vietnam. Of course, old German maps of the area also includes these islands back in the late 1800s. Lets face it, so many nations have claims to the Spratleys, most of them are significantly stronger than the RP. For us to gain sole custody, we will have to beg the USA to back us up. The UN is a lot more iffy.

 

 

Malaysia's submarines have a problem submerging, thus I'm not sure they can properly be called submarines.

 

We did that already, we call it the West Philippine Sea, of course, nobody else calls it that, to the rest of the world at large it is the China Sea.

So historically speaking, China really has a right to it but under today's laws under the UNCLOS and geographically speaking, the Philippines has a right to it. China's claiming of the Spratlys is akin to Iraq's claiming of Kuwait since historically Kuwait was a part of Iraq which precipitated Gulf War I.

Edited July 10, 2011 by inverbrass

[BnF95]

So historically speaking, China really has a right to it but under today's laws under the UNCLOS and geographically speaking, the Philippines has a right to it. China's claiming of the Spratlys is akin to Iraq's claiming of Kuwait since historically Kuwait was a part of Iraq which precipitated Gulf War I.

Geographically speaking its in international waters, creative interpretations of the various UNCLOS might give it to China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, or the Philippines. As a matter of intellectual debate, our claim to the Spratlys will also give us claim to Brunei and Malaysia, I doubt that will impress them very much into giving up their claim as well.

 

Let's face it, the Republic of the Philippines keeps parts of the archipelago by force of arms, for all intents and purposes, in a point of view, the RP = Spain while the MILF/MNLF/ASG/JI are the Katipunan.

[wolflove_bigdawg]

So historically speaking, China really has a right to it but under today's laws under the UNCLOS and geographically speaking, the Philippines has a right to it. China's claiming of the Spratlys is akin to Iraq's claiming of Kuwait since historically Kuwait was a part of Iraq which precipitated Gulf War I.

 

i guess claims based on history is history nowadays (no pun intended) because if we follow that, then half-of the world(maybe more) would belong to Greece since Alexander the Greater conquered much to the world in ancient times. the same logic would give the other half to Mongolia because of Genghis Khan. so really, this is ridiculous. we now have this thing called LAW.

[zenislev]

Geographically speaking its in international waters, creative interpretations of the various UNCLOS might give it to China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, or the Philippines. As a matter of intellectual debate, our claim to the Spratlys will also give us claim to Brunei and Malaysia, I doubt that will impress them very much into giving up their claim as well.

 

Let's face it, the Republic of the Philippines keeps parts of the archipelago by force of arms, for all intents and purposes, in a point of view, the RP = Spain while the MILF/MNLF/ASG/JI are the Katipunan.

 

Will sharing those Group of Islands with the concerned countries solve the problems, like a few Islands to us, a few to them? Or they just plainly really want them all for themselves?

[BnF95]

Will sharing those Group of Islands with the concerned countries solve the problems, like a few Islands to us, a few to them? Or they just plainly really want them all for themselves?

Why not have a joint venture with all the nations and share the bounty, with overwatch provided by the USA?

[Guest inverbrass]

Why not have a joint venture with all the nations and share the bounty, with overwatch provided by the USA?

I agree with this. Or perhaps to sweeten the pot, RP could sell 50% of the oil extracted from the RP portion of the Spratlys to the USA. At least if this would happen, the US would have a reason to have a presence in the Spratlys area to protect its interests.

 

 

 

[zenislev]

I agree with this. Or perhaps to sweeten the pot, RP could sell 50% of the oil extracted from the RP portion of the Spratlys to the USA. At least if this would happen, the US would have a reason to have a presence in the Spratlys area to protect its interests.

 

This could be the very same reason why US is aiding us in the first place, they want a share in oil.

[wolflove_bigdawg]

better share the oil with Americans, at least magbabayad yan kahit low price pa. eh kung sa china, kukunin nila lahat sa atin.