money Stock Market

[K0RN - RETIR3D]

On 4/24/2022 at 7:26 PM, The Specialist said:

Not sure if everyone happen to see, my last post (decided to hide it). Since I don't want to scare anyone, also that is only a study/thesis that needs some confirmation from the market. But since this already started to unfold. Let me write a little about it.

That day, I noticed some weakness, on one prior leader name. To be specific, $MER. For some reason, I noticed that it was being distributed (at least from how the way I interpret it). I understand that it may be different from the others. 

I believe, I already written some articles or comments in the thread that stocks moves in cycles/groups. Whether it is on the upside/sideways/down. Of course, it won't be a leader if the move will not be started by it, and the other members of the group didn't follow. There are some outliers, but to be specific, the one I want to show is the group move. 

So let's now see, $MER (previous leader for my stand point for energy name)

- coming from it's base. 20% upside. (box in blue)

- then come april 12, 2022 ( I noticed a sell-off on huge volume). Then followed by continuous selling days (breaking supports). See attached

 

Now let's see other energy name like (AP, SPNEC, ACEN) on that same date forward. Attached screen print for reference.

Please bear mind, that this was a thesis. It's never my style to predict, but rather I only interpret what the price action is telling. Just to be clear, I never recommended anything whether it was a buy or a sell. All I want to say, at this point is, good luck on the energy name holders out there!

Great evening to all!

Looks good. Could have been better if nashare mo yung mga Top Buyers and Sellers so we could dig deeper. 

[K0RN - RETIR3D]

On 5/11/2022 at 10:57 PM, The Specialist said:

Meanwhile, Anyone might possibly think. A durog pala, US at PSEI. Lipat ko kaya sa crypto. 

Guess what, durog din at under pressure. Here's how it looks at the moment. 

Hopefully, people in this thread, will realize the main reason why from the start since I posted in here. That it's a must to study the markets before putting your hard earn money on it.

Those people who's ignorant, and merely gamblers (not knowing what their doing), will surely be punished in time.

Good Insight! Mas okay talaga when you do your Due Diligence before placing part of your hard earned money in Equities (Local or Foreign). 

[K0RN - RETIR3D]

Why Most Traders Never Succeed

Most traders never succeed because they trade without a quantified system with an edge, they trade too big, and they trade based on their emotions, ego, and predictions not price action. This is the opposite of what is needed to be a successful trader. A successful trader uses a quantified system with an edge, trades it with proper position sizing, and follows it with discipline regardless of how they feel or what their opinion is.

 

What Percentage of Traders are Successful?

Many studies point to research showing 90% of traders lose money and only 10% are profitable. I would add that only 1% are very successful making life changing money. Most traders start with the dream of getting rich quick and thinking that trading is easy money or that they are special and talented.

40% of people trade for only one month. 80% of new traders quit within the first two years. Only 7% remain after five years.

Trading is a professional endeavor with a low barrier to entry causing a high losing rate. Unlike professional sports, medicine, and law that requires years of preparation and education you can open a brokerage account and start trading the same day with no experience or education against professionals. There is a high losing rate in all professional fields when counted from the start to the final success of making money. Why would trading be any different?

 

What Causes Traders to Fail?

Most traders fail because they don’t put in the time and do the work to learn how to be a profitable trader.
They risk too much to make too little. They have no edge and act like gamblers playing into the hands of market, buying high and selling low.
They have no edge and the odds are against their success over the long term. They focus on their own opinions, predictions, and are lead by how they feel and not focusing on what is actually happening in the market.

 

5 Reasons Why Traders Lose Money

• They try to pick tops and bottoms on charts instead of trading the swings and trends as they occur.
• They take profits too early worried about losing their small profit so they miss the big profits.
• They hold losing trades hoping they go back to even so they can get out and turn small losses into big losses.
• They are bullish in bear markets and bearish in bull markets.
• They trade so big that a few losses give back any profits eventually.

[The Specialist]

6 hours ago, K0RN - RETIR3D said:

Looks good. Could have been better if nashare mo yung mga Top Buyers and Sellers so we could dig deeper. 

Top buyer and sellers per name is provided by the brokers. Anyone could see it, if they wanted to. 

There is some guys, in investa community before that is generating that stuff for all names, I just see it as a gray area. To me, one vital information or i must say an arsenal is knowing how to determine the institutional footprints. To simply put, how to determine, if a name is being accumulated.

I don't normally check it, since I dont do broker analysis. What I'm only showing on the particular post you commented was how stocks move in cycles and groups. Thats it!

For those interested what happen to the energy names, check it with your brokers/charting tool/google it. All names drop from their prices before.

 

Edited May 15, 2022 by The Specialist

[The Specialist]

5 hours ago, K0RN - RETIR3D said:

Why Most Traders Never Succeed

Most traders never succeed because they trade without a quantified system with an edge, they trade too big, and they trade based on their emotions, ego, and predictions not price action. This is the opposite of what is needed to be a successful trader. A successful trader uses a quantified system with an edge, trades it with proper position sizing, and follows it with discipline regardless of how they feel or what their opinion is.

 

What Percentage of Traders are Successful?

Many studies point to research showing 90% of traders lose money and only 10% are profitable. I would add that only 1% are very successful making life changing money. Most traders start with the dream of getting rich quick and thinking that trading is easy money or that they are special and talented.

40% of people trade for only one month. 80% of new traders quit within the first two years. Only 7% remain after five years.

Trading is a professional endeavor with a low barrier to entry causing a high losing rate. Unlike professional sports, medicine, and law that requires years of preparation and education you can open a brokerage account and start trading the same day with no experience or education against professionals. There is a high losing rate in all professional fields when counted from the start to the final success of making money. Why would trading be any different?

 

What Causes Traders to Fail?

Most traders fail because they don’t put in the time and do the work to learn how to be a profitable trader.
They risk too much to make too little. They have no edge and act like gamblers playing into the hands of market, buying high and selling low.
They have no edge and the odds are against their success over the long term. They focus on their own opinions, predictions, and are lead by how they feel and not focusing on what is actually happening in the market.

 

5 Reasons Why Traders Lose Money

• They try to pick tops and bottoms on charts instead of trading the swings and trends as they occur.
• They take profits too early worried about losing their small profit so they miss the big profits.
• They hold losing trades hoping they go back to even so they can get out and turn small losses into big losses.
• They are bullish in bear markets and bearish in bull markets.
• They trade so big that a few losses give back any profits eventually.

To simply put this lengthy concept. People always choose, the easy way around. 

I'll give you an example, in my years of trading journey there were lots of individuals ask me whether a reco to buy/sell, to teach them with/without pay, to guide them or work hand in hand with them so they will be able to grasp the concept of trading in the markets. 

What's funny is, the 1st filter that I always do is to ask them to read a book. Let's say, I ask them to read "how to make money in stocks" and told them read 4 chapters and try to understand the concept at your own pace and then look the things you have learn on the chart (try your best). Then let's discuss (I even mentioned ask me anything). You know what happens everytime? They never came back. 😂😂😂 

Sometimes, I ask people to read a 1hr/2hr read book. Guess what happens? They still never came back 😂😂😂

Only a few of them, finished the task, in my experienced 2 people vs a 100. Anong maririnig mo dun sa mga naglaho, kesyo busy, kesyo walang time. All that you can find in "reasons.com". This was the norm honestly.

In which, they didn't know that it is one of the reasons why they are loosing their hard earned money. 

If anyone might ask? Kelan ba gumagaling normally yung magagaling? They started after loosing a big amount of money. After kasi nun, binabalikan yung past mistakes, nagdedicate na ng time on improving oneself in terms of trading at nagiging disiplinado na (overtime). Of course, there are lots of exception to this, normal act would be after their huge loss. Isusumpa na to. hahaha

Edited May 15, 2022 by The Specialist

[The Specialist]

Recent hot topic in psei, $MEG.

Short summary of what happen:

- disclosure about BIR concerns.

- price plummets, then sudden regain of price until closing.

- $MEG issued a numerous counter "official statement" clearing the issue.

Short comment: Dirty tactics, that is only done in the philippines.

-  Just sharing -

[arbie1808]

On 5/18/2022 at 10:52 AM, The Specialist said:

Recent hot topic in psei, $MEG.

Short summary of what happen:

- disclosure about BIR concerns.

- price plummets, then sudden regain of price until closing.

- $MEG issued a numerous counter "official statement" clearing the issue.

Short comment: Dirty tactics, that is only done in the philippines.

-  Just sharing -

Dami nagpanic selling tapos sila lang bumili. Price manipulation at it's unbothered-muscleflexing-best

[The Specialist]

20 hours ago, arbie1808 said:

Dami nagpanic selling tapos sila lang bumili. Price manipulation at it's unbothered-muscleflexing-best

Exactly, normally yung mga ganyan may insider info na between brokers.

This is the same thing with cash/stocks divs, PSEI rebalancing (addition/exclusion). Normally alam na nila yan ahead of time in the phils. Nalaman ko lang ito through senyor spyfrat. He was very kind to explained the nuances on how to make money of this kinds. Tas syempre, para malaman ko kung totoo nga, vinalidate ko through charts. Kaya a must din ung experienced to capture this opportunities.

Through time, magkakatropa naren nasi yung mga brokers. Kaya andun ung leak of info. Or ung iba, nakabantay sa mga company disclosure (tambay sa pse edge) kaya paglabas palang ng disclosure (buy up agad).

Not sure, naisulat ko na dito before. But for cash/stocks divs. Lalo yung mga yearly nagbibigay. Alam na kasi ng mga brokers or perhaps may reminder na ng date kung kelan namimigay ung specific company ng ganun. What they actually do, is to WL the stock when the said name is nearing its divs announcement. 

Tas inaantay nalang yung accumulation on the name. Kung marunong ka bumasa ng price action makikita mo na prior to announcement/disclosure inaaccumulate na ito. Tas once happening na ung buy-up, dun na sila naghahanap ng setup, or namimili rin. Then on ex-date, dun binubuhos. Kasi ganun ung play on stock divs.

So kung one individual, wants to learn about this. Find "stock market pilipinas" on fb groups or senyor spyfrat. Sobrang bait nya I must say to explain it all. Stock broker ung tao from iloilo and a previous trading competition champion btw. Also, he was one of the crowd favorites everytime he discusses in seminars, kasi may sense of humor, pera sa magaling, down to earth, at makatotohanan ung sinasabe if kamote sya or hindi. hahaha

RE: his fb groups, its for free. But, like I always say, you cant learn this stuff if di mo aaralin. Sasabihin din naman nya yan duon. May free group sya, then merun din subscription based (together with other mentors na nagtuturo). It's called BoH, yan ung subscription based. 

Nowadays, di ko na cinacapture tong mga gantong plays. Since mas focus ako sa leadership kinds of play. The real key is to choose a strategy, be discipline to follow it and commit with the strategy. Hope it helps.

Edited May 20, 2022 by The Specialist

[The Specialist]

Just a note: After a correction or a bear market cycle. Normally, big money is made at the turn. So, keep your watchlist fresh and dont get too aggressive if the 1st position or initial buy is not working for you.

Treat every trade or investment with a "risk first" mindset and all will be good.

[iceberg007]

Mga bossing, kuha b kayo raslag?

[The Specialist]

There are 2 IPO line-ups that is incoming.

1. $ASLAG 

Event Name: Raslag Corp. - Initial Public Offering
Company Name: Raslag Corp.
Stock Symbol: ASLAG
Offer Price: PHP 2
Board Lot: 1,000 shares
Minimum Order: 5,000 shares
Maximum Order:  50,000 shares
Start Date: 05-23-2022
End Date: 05-27-2022
Listing Date: 06-06-2022
 

2. UIC - octagon (no details yet, as of the moment).

- Normally I pass on IPO's on their 1st day. Since RRR is 50/50, volatile (especially on low price name), whether its cheap (normies favorite), good fundamentals, with or without a stability fund, and etc. It's just me, you can buy if you want to.

I treat names, fairly the same. I want it at uptrending environment, have a good base, has a setup with a low risk entry. I dont fall into the cheap trap.

IPO hacks:

- You can avail an IPO name through your broker (RE: procedures follow your brokers instructions, normally it has an email notif to you). If you have an excess buying power, you can use that. So ipapadeduct mo yung remaining BP sa plan mo na number of shares bilhin considering syempre kung enough yung natirang BP. 

- Other options, you can avail through PSE easy. Kung wala ka idea pano, youtube mo, may walkthrough dun.

Tip: if oversubscribed yung isang IPO stock, normally mas marami binibigay sa PSE easy vs yung inallot ng broker sau. Baket? syempre, may insider info na yun, inuuna nila yung big clients/yung account ng broker tas yung tira yun ung paghahatian ng retail (via raffle, kaya swertehan makakuha). Just be early to apply, if interested.

- For PSE easy, inaapply to sa site nila. May notif yan sa site and email if approved yung IPO request. Then bank transfer or punta ka sa bank para magdeposit dun sa inorder mo for payment.

Yung issue nila minsan dito, di kaagad nagrereflect sa broker mo yung inavail mo na shares of that stock. Wag magworry, magrereflect yun in time, di lang agad-agad.

Yung pinakaprob is if matagal magreflect sa broker mo, tas nagkabuhusan (so concern sa risk management).

Just in case REIT naman yung mag IPO, may need ka na i-submit bago ka maka-avail nyan. Nakalimutan ko yung tawag, pero dapat merun kang approved nun bago ka makabili ng REIT. If wala ka nun, never ka makakabili. kahet di sa listing date mismo.

- Another tip, kung bago ka lang, at gusto mo yung IPO stock. Walang masamang bumili. Bumili ka lang ng kaonti. Kaonti, in terms na kaya mo itake yung risk nun. Baket? kasi pag umangat at anytime pwede ka magdagdag atleast up ka na. Pag bagsak naman on the listing date, atleast konti lang talo mo. Overall, edi naexperienced mo yung pagbili ng IPO stock whether it goes up or down.

- Normally maingay pag overly subscribed yung IPO stock. May ugong ugong yan for sure prior to listing date and siguro mga a week or two. Ang gawin mo, wag mo lang pansinin. What important is the listing date and so on, kung ano ung feedback ng market through price. Pag umangat, edi may demand. Pag bumagsak edi nilaro lang.

History shows, that every IPO is a vacuum. "Vacuum" in terms of liquidity on the listing date, or siguro mga 1-2 weeks after. Normal yun, since all eyes are in here. This is coined as "stocks in play".

Edited May 25, 2022 by The Specialist

[tombone]

Balai will sell up to 325 million primary shares and 50 million secondary shares with up to 37.5 million overallotment option  shares at a maximum offer price of P0.75 apiece.  The offer period will run from  June 17 to 23 while the target listing date is on June 30.

It is going to be fun .

[The Specialist]

On 6/2/2022 at 9:18 AM, tombone said:

Balai will sell up to 325 million primary shares and 50 million secondary shares with up to 37.5 million overallotment option  shares at a maximum offer price of P0.75 apiece.  The offer period will run from  June 17 to 23 while the target listing date is on June 30.

It is going to be fun .

It's a little bit early to look into this in my point of view. Still, I haven't gathered any concrete info about this IPO. So I just leave it that way. All I know is $FRUIT, doesn't look that good at this point and wasn't even passing the qualifier. 

Short comment. Trading isn't fun for me. I treat it as a business. 

What's funny for me, are those people who don't learn from their mistakes. And not doing anything to improved.   Just sharing, not trying to argue.

 

Edited June 3, 2022 by The Specialist

[The Specialist]

$ASLAG, listing date. 

- Pre - open ceiling(pre market) then sell down at the open.

- For those who have sold shares at a profit. Congrats! gain is a gain (Prior to IPO listing date).

- Since IPO price is 2php a share. Institution will try their best to protect that price. Just in case it didn't hold. One thing is for sure, another sell off is abound to happen.

- Now in case your asking, what happens to those individuals/investors who bought higher than 2.05 today, and still holding the stock. It's a mix of (having a small loss, some small gain for ipo buyers prior to listing date, the others big loss and ipit).

- Now, would one expect this stock to recover soon or perhaps break the highs? I would honestly say that, lessen your expectations. Since, there are lots of trap buyers at the higher price. Sa madaling sabe, maraming supply. So, kelangan maubos yun if aangat ito and that would take some time. Else, its again, another IPO stock that is a junk and been dumped.

- For those people, who have accepted their mistake, follow their plan, and cut their losses. You've taken a risk, and follow your plan that is okay. Find the next good stock. Bright side is youve managed your risk and protected your capital.

- Now, for those thinking of buying it? (no aslag shares as of the moment). It's your call. But at this point, ikaw bahala kung gusto mo makipagpalit sa iba sa selda (ipit).

 Good eve!

Edited June 6, 2022 by The Specialist

[kevin12684]

tae ka talaga raslag

[sirheinrichcu]

lahat kaya maging possible

[Batang hampas lupa]

Swerte ng mga  nakabili kahapon kay $FB.

Sa Monday malaki ang chance na mag bounce siya.

[The Specialist]

As promised, and maybe the last trades that I'll be sharing in this thread.

successful and worked are ($ABA and $SSI). The one that doesn't really work is $DMC. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Since I sold these positions. I am just less than 50% exposed in the PSEI. Got 2 stock positions, one working and the other one is a so so or maybe a cut if it didn't hold. Keep safe everyone!

Edited June 29, 2022 by The Specialist

[MartinDomingo]

Stocks to buy now

Converge and spnec

 

converge will rally to 30 or 29 before the month ends

[The Specialist]

1 hour ago, MartinDomingo said:

Stocks to buy now

Converge and spnec

 

converge will rally to 30 or 29 before the month ends

After having 2M loss at $ACEN. and still not breaking even on this stock alone at this point. Now you can predict? Funny.

[MartinDomingo]

41 minutes ago, The Specialist said:

After having 2M loss at $ACEN. and still not breaking even on this stock alone at this point. Now you can predict? Funny.

I diverted to CONVRG

 

That's the only content of my portfolio now

 

[MartinDomingo]

Just sharing my insights 

I lost big on acen .that's why I cut loss 

 

[MartinDomingo]

What stocks to buy at this current situation to win?

 

I was asked by many as to what stocks to have. My answer is to tell the stocks what I had already put my money.

 

CNVRG- we know well that the reason for its decline to a low of 18.20 was due to the selling of Pincus Warburg of around 250M shares more or less at 25 per share. Everybody got scared of that sending Cnvrg lower and lower since then. But it is now going up indicating that the said shares must have been exhausted or sold out. Therefore even if you buy at 22 tomorrow, its closing today is at 21.70, your buying price is far better off than the 25 per share crossed by Pincus to another foreign investor at 25 per share. You must take advantage of this rare chance when a fundamentally sound telco company is trading below the acquisition price of a major foreign investor in CNVRG. In the grander scheme of investing especially in the stock market, the big investors will always win because they have the financial muscle and wherewital to make the stock price go into their favor. The one who bought the 250M shares at 25 will be the captive defender of Cnvrg in the coming days. Anything below 25 at this point is relatively cheap and must be scooped up.

 

Next are the Marcos stocks like WEB and PRIM and others. I can not convince you with sound fundamentals that these stocks have like CNVRG. However, they posses the meandering speculations as to what businesseses that can be injected into them. These stocks being listed can be easy target by international companies wanting to open up business ventures here without the rigors of undergoing governmental, congressional scrutiny and approval. Their allure is the " what are we in power for" swagger. Stock market is practically speculations. And these stocks will enjoy 6 years of endless speculations while BBM is on the driver's seat. I heard PRIM is on expansion drive already. What about WEB? There can be a lot to be injected in those stock once BBM officially sits.

Lets all make some money

[The Specialist]

2 hours ago, MartinDomingo said:

Just sharing my insights 

I lost big on acen .that's why I cut loss 

 

This was a good thing to do, cutting your loss. Haven't i said it right? That will stop the bleeding in anyone's port?

No matter how big the amount is. Admitting/knowing the point where you are wrong and "doing something" is much better than praying that your stock will break even. 

Nagkataon lang, in your $ACEN case, you let your port be underwater to much. Hence, the amount of loss balloon in that way. Who's mistake? No one else, but the one who's managing the port. Since they are the one who executes the trades.

So what does it tells? you are poor risk manager. Same goes as your new trade. Wow! all in. hahaha

Can't blame some people who will not like this post. Since most always wants the easy way around. But this was just a hard truth of the market. Especially, if one doesn't manage their risk. 

"if you are afraid, to take a small loss. Soon, you will have the mother of all losses". 

 

Nahurt ata sa post ko. Wag masyado dibdibin. Totoo lang naman yung sinabe ko. Hopefully, pag di umabot ng 30 or pag maground trip going down di ka mapa post ulet ng "kill me na"

Edited June 28, 2022 by The Specialist

[Batang hampas lupa]

Mukhang reversal ni si CNVRG...