money Stock Market

[The Specialist]

A classic example of stocks correlation between NIKL FUTURES and NIKL PH. Sold some of my holdings yesterday EOD (price extension), and the rest at the open earlier (hit my back stop). For now, there are just very limited setups available. Hence, I am just 50% invested with my port, and not trying to be aggressive. I wanted to see strong names, before I do my buying. Normally, stocks must prove 1st that they are worthy to be bought by showing its strength vs the overall market.

I have noticed a sell-off yesterday on the overall market. Sa mga ipit, one thing is for sure. The rally that will be unfolding soon will be your perfect chance, to sell at a much higher price than yesterday. Keep in mind, that not all battered stocks go up to it's original prices at the top and after all there is no intelligent reason to hold a plummeting stock since it didn't make you money in the 1st place. Trash are meant to be dumped and not hold.

Classic example: $ACEN - run is over, it's just that people can't accept it. Now, they are been punished by holding a loss. That is, if they bought at the higher prices than the current one. 

 

Screenshot for your reference.

[Batang hampas lupa]

5 hours ago, ichiromiyata98 said:

A classic example of stocks correlation between NIKL FUTURES and NIKL PH. Sold some of my holdings yesterday EOD (price extension), and the rest at the open earlier (hit my back stop). For now, there are just very limited setups available. Hence, I am just 50% invested with my port, and not trying to be aggressive. I wanted to see strong names, before I do my buying. Normally, stocks must prove 1st that they are worthy to be bought by showing its strength vs the overall market.

I have noticed a sell-off yesterday on the overall market. Sa mga ipit, one thing is for sure. The rally that will be unfolding soon will be your perfect chance, to sell at a much higher price than yesterday. Keep in mind, that not all battered stocks go up to it's original prices at the top and after all there is no intelligent reason to hold a plummeting stock since it didn't make you money in the 1st place. Trash are meant to be dumped and not hold.

Classic example: $ACEN - run is over, it's just that people can't accept it. Now, they are been punished by holding a loss. That is, if they bought at the higher prices than the current one. 

 

Screenshot for your reference.

Nag take profit na ang mga trader kaya bumaba ang mga mining stocks kanina...

Congrats sa mga nakasakay kay fni at nikl...

[The Specialist]

5 hours ago, Batang hampas lupa said:

Nag take profit na ang mga trader kaya bumaba ang mga mining stocks kanina...

Congrats sa mga nakasakay kay fni at nikl...

Correct. Here is why, just my point of view. Nickel futures was halted because prices go wild up. In that sense, nagkaron ng short squeeze. So sellers, kc mas pinili ng mga tao to sell and take profit than risk their money on staying on the name (with lots of uncertainty if prices will still goes up, sideways for quite sometime or continue on the downside). Simple reason, nirealized ung gains, may a quarter of the position, a half, or the whole position. Because in that way, they can minimize the risk involved.

Now for the decision why i sold yesterday EOD. It simply, selling at strength (sell when its easy, no drawdowns on equity gains) and i still hold half just in case, the stock continue its move to the upside.

The next sell is basically, sinabe ko naren sa taas. Its because of the nickel futures. I was just trying to hold it, gave a little room for price to fluctuate. But not to the extent that I will lay the odds outside my favor.

As you can see, $NIKL has move 50% plus in just several days. Not all is aware that as prices extends to the highs. Risk reward also evolves. Sa madaling sabe, at the highs lumiliit ung reward, vs your risk. Kaya prone sa selling. 

Question: would you risk 25% of your gains to earn 6-10% more? Simple answer is no. 

I am not saying that the $NIKL stock already ended at this point. It was still a good stock and a name that I am still watching. So buhay pa. I just made the decision to sell it, since the getting is good. After all, a normal stock move, would take more than few weeks to months to actually reach a 25- 30%.(one will know it, if they are actually studying).

So a price increase of 51% or more in just few days. Hence, became a "no brainer sell" for taking profit.

Also, lets say this reset up. I can still buy it at any moment in time. Yes, i will purchase it at a higher price. But the amount of shares I can buy, is quite more if i want it to. Because i could buy the original size + profit gains. The strategy is called value turnover "power of compounding". Or i didnt re-purchased it and miss the next move "opportunity cost" this is part of the game.

So whats happens, if i didnt sell it yesterday and today. The answer is, my gains were cut short. To be honest, I got the liberty of both. Holding for a bigger move and selling at huge price swings to the upside because for a simple reason. "I am up on the stock". That i might say is a big difference. Comparing when you are holding at a loss. The options is just selling at a loss, or at break even that is, if babalik sa taas. Eh pano kung hindi? 

 

What If someone is playing for a bigger move? This correction have to be endured. The cost is, no one knows if it will be back at the highs or your gains will be cut short or maybe mawala. So may risk involved (unmeasurable risk). So its a call that an individual has to make. After all, only God knows if a stock will move up, side or down. All probabilities.

The lesson: Make a decision and follow the plan. Not all have this discipline.

Markets is easy talked with. But hard to do. If this is easy, everyone by now will be a multi millionaire or a billionaire.

Edited March 9, 2022 by ichiromiyata98

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[The Specialist]

Realities of trading: Not all are wins. Here's a sample, where I cut a trade, just now.

 

 

[francis_0170]

15 hours ago, ichiromiyata98 said:

Realities of trading: Not all are wins. Here's a sample, where I cut a trade, just now.

 

 

Agree sir. Ako nga, tingin ko mas marami pa number losses ko compared sa wins. Pero halos break even lang dahil sa naging profit.

 

Any thoughts on possible scenario ng upcoming election sa stocks? Historically, baba daw before ng election to protect investors or kung feel nila yung susunod na president?

IPO of bank of commerce? Thanks in advance!

[The Specialist]

11 hours ago, francis_0170 said:

Agree sir. Ako nga, tingin ko mas marami pa number losses ko compared sa wins. Pero halos break even lang dahil sa naging profit.

 

Any thoughts on possible scenario ng upcoming election sa stocks? Historically, baba daw before ng election to protect investors or kung feel nila yung susunod na president?

IPO of bank of commerce? Thanks in advance!

Please see answers on bullets below:

- Losses is a function of your expected gain. The key is, you must try your best to limit your losses to atleast 8-10% max. Best is below -5%. So why this number? Here is the table, that not all understand. As you can see, when losses hit 10%, it became much harder to recover and so on when it balloons. In trading or investing, the holy grail is risk management. Risk first, profit next. Meaning the 1st job is to limit risk, then when the odds is in your favor. get some profit that is multiple of what you have risked. 

- It would be volatile, thats for sure. No one can predict it, gagalaw at gagalaw yan either up, down or sideways. And i'll explained it in a very simple thought. Kaya volatile, kc pinaprice in ng market kung sino ung possible manalo. Maswerte yung kapanalig or if pabor or leaning yung goal nung mananalong president sa business, kasi mabibiyayaan yun. Why? kapanalig nga e. It means, business would be smooth in the years to come. Kaya aangat ung stock nila. 

Now for "Historically, baba daw before ng election to protect investors or kung feel nila yung susunod na president?". - Have you verified this through charts and back tracking events?

To tell you the truth, "protecting the investors thing" is just a merely sugar coating. Example, yung mga naipit sa $CAL, AR, at sa iba may nagawa ba sila? Wala. Miski PSEI, walang nagawa diba? So it is a myth. That is why, managing risk should always be there in the 1st place when a trade is place. Protecting your capital is not their job. It's yours! And in case the fund is managed by a fund manager, its the fund manager's job! 

A much more wise qualifier on choosing would be.

- historically, ano ba ung umaangat pag election? What names and why? so study and observed.

- Ano ba ung mga liquid name? Focus on the individual stocks that is in uptrends

- Or if volatility is too much for you, or uncertainty, it is best to just be on the sidelines. Di naman nauubos opportunity sa markets e. Antayin mo lang ung gumanda, and get the next possible move. Mas simple.

 

For IPO bank of commerce. For me it would be a pass. 1st of all i dont trade IPO stocks on their 1st day of trading. since risk reward is 1:1. I only trade a stock, if risk is small and reward is a multiple of my risk. So patience for me. Protecting capital is my number one priority, sa madaling sabi.

Next reason, Fed raising high interest rates. Look at my previous post re: banks. Open the chart, and perhaps see, from that date forward what happens with the banks. High interest rates = bad for the banks. So im not touching it. Also, market is a little bit choppy nowadays. Im a little bit cautious right now.

With regards, to what i mentioned. Take it with a grain of salt. It doesnt mean that I am not touching the IPO stock or any stock i mentioned, that it wouldnt go up. Think in probabilities please. Also, I am not God. hahaha! What I am merely doing is gathering evidence from fundamentals/technicals/risk and judging it base on my system if it is a go or pass. Hopefully, my answer gave some clarity.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by The Specialist

[The Specialist]

My peace of advice. Buy the books i mentioned and study it carefully. From there, you will understand where I'm coming from. That is, if you are really serious about making money in the stock market. 

Di sumikat ung mga tao na yun for nothing at all. It's a results based why they became famous. And they haven't just done it once, their very consistent. Surely, after you read those books, you will be enlighten of the myths and facts about the market.

So what's the benefits of reading their works:

- you will get to know how the market really works.

- you will know how they made their money "step by step". 

- you will avoid huge drawdowns "since they already mentioned in the books what they have learned from those and how to overcome it".

- you will know, how to manage your risk, stock position from start to finished.

- other external factors that you should really focus on. And neglect the other nuances, that is not really needed.

- you will know how to pick a good stock, and avoid a bad stock.

- you will know when to act, and when not to act.

These are some of the things you will learn. 

Edited March 12, 2022 by ichiromiyata98

[The Specialist]

15 hours ago, francis_0170 said:

Agree sir. Ako nga, tingin ko mas marami pa number losses ko compared sa wins. Pero halos break even lang dahil sa naging profit.

 

Any thoughts on possible scenario ng upcoming election sa stocks? Historically, baba daw before ng election to protect investors or kung feel nila yung susunod na president?

IPO of bank of commerce? Thanks in advance!

I'll point you to the right way of questioning sir.

- Which stock do you think, will greatly benefit on the election? 

- Then you check the chart of those trade ideas. Are they in uptrend, downtrend or sideways?

- Are those names liquid to start off. and being accumulated or being distributed.

Nasabe ko na yung technique na yun before. "Tag as thinking ahead of the norms". Kung itatrack mo kasi, at ilalagay mo sa isip mo na babagsak. Sa tingin mo, makukuha mo ung paparating na opportunity? The answer is no. Because you are just scaring yourself.

 

So Let's try to reverse that idea. Since ito naman ung may silbi. Of all the 300 stock names. Which do you think will greatly benefit from it? Pag ganto yung thinking. Diba, on the positive note and higher chances for you to look deeply kung sino ung outlier from the rest. To simply put, if your idea. Is not validated with the charts, meaning di positive ung nakikita mo, edi pass. Then move to the next stock. Until you finished, that screening process.

Ngaun, pano kung wala kang makita na. Positive via fundamentals/technicals and walang catalyst? The answer is, do not trade. Kasi wala naman kelangan gawen.

Sana mas napadali ko ung dapat na thought process.

 

Bibigyan kita ng simple scenario.

Nung christmas or end of year. Which do you think benefit from it aside from the leader names, acex, ubp and emp?.

The answer is banks. Why? its because, every end of year. History shows, great demand for ofw remittances, which isa sa bumubuhay sa pinas for revenue's. Diba umangat sila? So parang ganun yung ibig kung sabihin. Di kelangan gawing kumplikado.

[The Specialist]

Now all cash on PSEI. Last trades where $ICT, small loss. Reason for buying is, leader name for shipping + Ecommerce the only business not that affected (shipping).

Then scratched for $GMA7, sold at breakeven point. It is my bet for the election day, btw. Here's why, uptrending chart + catalyst, politicians use it for debates and commercials. 

RE: position sizing/Risk management. Both trades are probes.  0.5% Var for each trade.

Both were sold. Trade invalidated, as it hits my cut points (technicals use for selling). I hope you could get something from the idea. 

Edited March 14, 2022 by The Specialist

[Batang hampas lupa]

58 minutes ago, The Specialist said:

Now all cash on PSEI. Last trades where $ICT, small loss. Reason for buying is, leader name for shipping + Ecommerce the only business not that affected (shipping).

Then scratched for $GMA7, sold at breakeven point. It is my bet for the election day, btw. Here's why, uptrending chart + catalyst, politicians use it for debates and commercials. 

RE: position sizing/Risk management. Both trades are probes.  0.5% Var for each trade.

Both were sold. Trade invalidated, as it hits my cut points (technicals use for selling). I hope you could get something from the idea. 

Sir ano ang insight mo kay urc bakit bumababa siya. 

[The Specialist]

41 minutes ago, Batang hampas lupa said:

Sir ano ang insight mo kay urc bakit bumababa siya. 

I dont have any info about it, sorry. This was a clear downtrending stock, and i dont trade those kinds even if this was fundamentally sound, or a good company. Never, pumapasok sa qualifier ko ito.

 

 

Edited March 14, 2022 by The Specialist

[The Specialist]

On 2/21/2022 at 2:18 PM, The Specialist said:

So this already happened today. $SPNEC crashed on volume.

Feedback: Other names on the group did hold.

Now for $SPNEC, Either of the 3 will happen next. 

1. Continuous move on the downside. Possibly, regained 20MA, then plummets fast down, or at the open tom crash slowly until sellers were done to sell what they have.

2. Regain the 20MA, then holds, setup. Then rally to upside (then sell off once again).

3. Regain 20MA, then holds, setup, then rally to the upside and break the ATH level (will take some time, lowest probability for now).

One thing is for sure. There are a lot of traders wanna be who bought few weeks ago (humabol), who didnt cut their losses. Who are now promoted to being an investor. Guess what, they are now holding a huge loss.

The one still in profit is the buyers who bought at IPO day, and some that have a lower average.

-Lesson: It is okay to bet, and risk small. This was a probability game after all. But know when you are wrong and you should accept(selling at a loss, the 1st loss is always good than the next).

 

So scenario 1 did happen this time for $SPNEC.

Look below:

 

[The Specialist]

Soon, those heavily invested at the market at this point. Will realize, my message before. That it is a must, to study how the market really works through its cycles.

"There is a time for making money, and there is a time to go and went fishing".  

Why? Because, they will have huge loss on their portfolio.

Sun is out. I am trying to refresh and relax with the breeze of the sea. Might opt to went fishing later. Good day! 

[soen]

all are going down down down

[Batang hampas lupa]

PSE close at GREEN candle...

Tapos naba ang panic selling...

 

[The Specialist]

3 hours ago, Batang hampas lupa said:

PSE close at GREEN candle...

Tapos naba ang panic selling...

 

Just finished screening. For me, hindi pa, it needs time to repair the damage. Lagi naman ganun yan. But it would be a good habit, to have an open mind to look for names that is holding the drop or recovered fast. Gaya ngaun, nakita ko na ung mga yun. So what I'll gonna do, is to monitor those names.

For URC, it recovers today. To me what happens in here is the "rubber band" effect. Dalawa yun, on the upside and on the downside. 

Ex. $NIKL, price runs up so fast in few days only (extended). So ung naging drop nya is mabilis rin. Common term nila dito is, escalator up, elevator down. 

Then, if you noticed. yung mga gumalaw end of week last week is yung mga low priced stock. Simple reason is, magaan at low price. So madali pagalawin. Nilalaro lang yung mga yun, If one will observed the move. Normally its a few days rally then bubuhusan na. They term it the one hit wonder.

So on the downside example naman like $URC, market might be seeing na sagad na on the downside. So ito ung capitualization play (running). Rubberband effect on the downside. So meaning, nagrarally pa taas, then since maraming sellers sa taas. Bubuhusan after din. 

I hope naexplained ko ng maayos. If you want a video explanation, look for COL in youtube, then ung capitualization. Dun inexplain nila edmund and other traders ung opportunity na cinacapture nila. 

Ako di ako after sa capitualization play. Dun ako sa new leader name na mag-eemerge, mas madali kasi un. Yoko pahirapan ung sarili ko dito. So up to the people yun, if go sila or not.

 

[Batang hampas lupa]

On 3/15/2022 at 10:42 AM, The Specialist said:

So scenario 1 did happen this time for $SPNEC.

Look below:

 

Ang ganda ng bounce ni spnec...

Congrats po sa mga nakabili sa 1.50 kahapon....

[jeff016]

Mga boss may pagasa pa ba si DITO

[Batang hampas lupa]

On 3/20/2022 at 3:10 PM, jeff016 said:

Mga boss may pagasa pa ba si DITO

Sir ano po average ninyo kay dito?

 

[ZerosumG]

Na hype yata nung nag 18 hahaha

[MartinDomingo]

may paagaaasaa paba aang acen?

lost 2M alreaady on themm

potaa

12 ko nnaabili

8 nnalang

kill me naa

[mdyogwapo]

Currently holding ACEN, SGP and CLI

[francis_0170]

2 hours ago, mdyogwapo said:

Currently holding ACEN, SGP and CLI

Nag cut loss na ako sir sa ACEN pati SGP at KEEPR dun sa FOO nila. 

[The Specialist]

Times like this. I bet your batting average is really low, and probably at the 30's. So during this time, I am very picky on which names to trade, and made sure that size is pretty low.

Last trade done for me is $SPNEC. Bought at 1.85 sold earlier at 2.02 with a var of just 0.5%. Port exposure is just 20% at the moment. I'm not really thinking of being aggressive, as port results is not showing any tractions. 

Good luck out there!