The Specialist

Thanks for buying $Web. I was selling most of my shares to realized gains, and now just hold 1/4 of it. Same as $PRIM. 

Hopefully, marami pang humabol. So I can easily dump my remaining shares if needed.

2 hours ago, MartinDomingo said:

Just sharing my insights 

I lost big on acen .that's why I cut loss 

 

This was a good thing to do, cutting your loss. Haven't i said it right? That will stop the bleeding in anyone's port?

No matter how big the amount is. Admitting/knowing the point where you are wrong and "doing something" is much better than praying that your stock will break even. 

Nagkataon lang, in your $ACEN case, you let your port be underwater to much. Hence, the amount of loss balloon in that way. Who's mistake? No one else, but the one who's managing the port. Since they are the one who executes the trades.

So what does it tells? you are poor risk manager. Same goes as your new trade. Wow! all in. hahaha

Can't blame some people who will not like this post. Since most always wants the easy way around. But this was just a hard truth of the market. Especially, if one doesn't manage their risk. 

"if you are afraid, to take a small loss. Soon, you will have the mother of all losses". 

Nahurt ata sa post ko. Wag masyado dibdibin. Totoo lang naman yung sinabe ko. Hopefully, pag di umabot ng 30 or pag maground trip going down di ka mapa post ulet ng "kill me na"

1 hour ago, MartinDomingo said:

Stocks to buy now

Converge and spnec

 

converge will rally to 30 or 29 before the month ends

After having 2M loss at $ACEN. and still not breaking even on this stock alone at this point. Now you can predict? Funny.

As promised, and maybe the last trades that I'll be sharing in this thread.

successful and worked are ($ABA and $SSI). The one that doesn't really work is $DMC. 

Since I sold these positions. I am just less than 50% exposed in the PSEI. Got 2 stock positions, one working and the other one is a so so or maybe a cut if it didn't hold. Keep safe everyone!

$ASLAG, listing date. 

- Pre - open ceiling(pre market) then sell down at the open.

- For those who have sold shares at a profit. Congrats! gain is a gain (Prior to IPO listing date).

- Since IPO price is 2php a share. Institution will try their best to protect that price. Just in case it didn't hold. One thing is for sure, another sell off is abound to happen.

- Now in case your asking, what happens to those individuals/investors who bought higher than 2.05 today, and still holding the stock. It's a mix of (having a small loss, some small gain for ipo buyers prior to listing date, the others big loss and ipit).

- Now, would one expect this stock to recover soon or perhaps break the highs? I would honestly say that, lessen your expectations. Since, there are lots of trap buyers at the higher price. Sa madaling sabe, maraming supply. So, kelangan maubos yun if aangat ito and that would take some time. Else, its again, another IPO stock that is a junk and been dumped.

- For those people, who have accepted their mistake, follow their plan, and cut their losses. You've taken a risk, and follow your plan that is okay. Find the next good stock. Bright side is youve managed your risk and protected your capital.

- Now, for those thinking of buying it? (no aslag shares as of the moment). It's your call. But at this point, ikaw bahala kung gusto mo makipagpalit sa iba sa selda (ipit).

 Good eve!

There's really nothing to do much in here. Cryptoverse is full of junk for me as of the moment. Except for some names.

Some thoughts process I can share are:

- Aside from most of the markets are under pressure. Most especially US.

- i think the market is trying to cleanse some names that has no real value or use.

On 6/2/2022 at 9:18 AM, tombone said:

Balai will sell up to 325 million primary shares and 50 million secondary shares with up to 37.5 million overallotment option  shares at a maximum offer price of P0.75 apiece.  The offer period will run from  June 17 to 23 while the target listing date is on June 30.

It is going to be fun .

It's a little bit early to look into this in my point of view. Still, I haven't gathered any concrete info about this IPO. So I just leave it that way. All I know is $FRUIT, doesn't look that good at this point and wasn't even passing the qualifier. 

Short comment. Trading isn't fun for me. I treat it as a business. 

What's funny for me, are those people who don't learn from their mistakes. And not doing anything to improved.   Just sharing, not trying to argue.

There are 2 IPO line-ups that is incoming.

1. $ASLAG 

Event Name: Raslag Corp. - Initial Public Offering
Company Name: Raslag Corp.
Stock Symbol: ASLAG
Offer Price: PHP 2
Board Lot: 1,000 shares
Minimum Order: 5,000 shares
Maximum Order:  50,000 shares
Start Date: 05-23-2022
End Date: 05-27-2022
Listing Date: 06-06-2022
 

2. UIC - octagon (no details yet, as of the moment).

- Normally I pass on IPO's on their 1st day. Since RRR is 50/50, volatile (especially on low price name), whether its cheap (normies favorite), good fundamentals, with or without a stability fund, and etc. It's just me, you can buy if you want to.

I treat names, fairly the same. I want it at uptrending environment, have a good base, has a setup with a low risk entry. I dont fall into the cheap trap.

IPO hacks:

- You can avail an IPO name through your broker (RE: procedures follow your brokers instructions, normally it has an email notif to you). If you have an excess buying power, you can use that. So ipapadeduct mo yung remaining BP sa plan mo na number of shares bilhin considering syempre kung enough yung natirang BP. 

- Other options, you can avail through PSE easy. Kung wala ka idea pano, youtube mo, may walkthrough dun.

Tip: if oversubscribed yung isang IPO stock, normally mas marami binibigay sa PSE easy vs yung inallot ng broker sau. Baket? syempre, may insider info na yun, inuuna nila yung big clients/yung account ng broker tas yung tira yun ung paghahatian ng retail (via raffle, kaya swertehan makakuha). Just be early to apply, if interested.

- For PSE easy, inaapply to sa site nila. May notif yan sa site and email if approved yung IPO request. Then bank transfer or punta ka sa bank para magdeposit dun sa inorder mo for payment.

Yung issue nila minsan dito, di kaagad nagrereflect sa broker mo yung inavail mo na shares of that stock. Wag magworry, magrereflect yun in time, di lang agad-agad.

Yung pinakaprob is if matagal magreflect sa broker mo, tas nagkabuhusan (so concern sa risk management).

Just in case REIT naman yung mag IPO, may need ka na i-submit bago ka maka-avail nyan. Nakalimutan ko yung tawag, pero dapat merun kang approved nun bago ka makabili ng REIT. If wala ka nun, never ka makakabili. kahet di sa listing date mismo.

- Another tip, kung bago ka lang, at gusto mo yung IPO stock. Walang masamang bumili. Bumili ka lang ng kaonti. Kaonti, in terms na kaya mo itake yung risk nun. Baket? kasi pag umangat at anytime pwede ka magdagdag atleast up ka na. Pag bagsak naman on the listing date, atleast konti lang talo mo. Overall, edi naexperienced mo yung pagbili ng IPO stock whether it goes up or down.

- Normally maingay pag overly subscribed yung IPO stock. May ugong ugong yan for sure prior to listing date and siguro mga a week or two. Ang gawin mo, wag mo lang pansinin. What important is the listing date and so on, kung ano ung feedback ng market through price. Pag umangat, edi may demand. Pag bumagsak edi nilaro lang.

History shows, that every IPO is a vacuum. "Vacuum" in terms of liquidity on the listing date, or siguro mga 1-2 weeks after. Normal yun, since all eyes are in here. This is coined as "stocks in play".

Just a note: After a correction or a bear market cycle. Normally, big money is made at the turn. So, keep your watchlist fresh and dont get too aggressive if the 1st position or initial buy is not working for you.

Treat every trade or investment with a "risk first" mindset and all will be good.

20 hours ago, arbie1808 said:

Dami nagpanic selling tapos sila lang bumili. Price manipulation at it's unbothered-muscleflexing-best

Exactly, normally yung mga ganyan may insider info na between brokers.

This is the same thing with cash/stocks divs, PSEI rebalancing (addition/exclusion). Normally alam na nila yan ahead of time in the phils. Nalaman ko lang ito through senyor spyfrat. He was very kind to explained the nuances on how to make money of this kinds. Tas syempre, para malaman ko kung totoo nga, vinalidate ko through charts. Kaya a must din ung experienced to capture this opportunities.

Through time, magkakatropa naren nasi yung mga brokers. Kaya andun ung leak of info. Or ung iba, nakabantay sa mga company disclosure (tambay sa pse edge) kaya paglabas palang ng disclosure (buy up agad).

Not sure, naisulat ko na dito before. But for cash/stocks divs. Lalo yung mga yearly nagbibigay. Alam na kasi ng mga brokers or perhaps may reminder na ng date kung kelan namimigay ung specific company ng ganun. What they actually do, is to WL the stock when the said name is nearing its divs announcement. 

Tas inaantay nalang yung accumulation on the name. Kung marunong ka bumasa ng price action makikita mo na prior to announcement/disclosure inaaccumulate na ito. Tas once happening na ung buy-up, dun na sila naghahanap ng setup, or namimili rin. Then on ex-date, dun binubuhos. Kasi ganun ung play on stock divs.

So kung one individual, wants to learn about this. Find "stock market pilipinas" on fb groups or senyor spyfrat. Sobrang bait nya I must say to explain it all. Stock broker ung tao from iloilo and a previous trading competition champion btw. Also, he was one of the crowd favorites everytime he discusses in seminars, kasi may sense of humor, pera sa magaling, down to earth, at makatotohanan ung sinasabe if kamote sya or hindi. hahaha

RE: his fb groups, its for free. But, like I always say, you cant learn this stuff if di mo aaralin. Sasabihin din naman nya yan duon. May free group sya, then merun din subscription based (together with other mentors na nagtuturo). It's called BoH, yan ung subscription based. 

Nowadays, di ko na cinacapture tong mga gantong plays. Since mas focus ako sa leadership kinds of play. The real key is to choose a strategy, be discipline to follow it and commit with the strategy. Hope it helps.

Recent hot topic in psei, $MEG.

Short summary of what happen:

- disclosure about BIR concerns.

- price plummets, then sudden regain of price until closing.

- $MEG issued a numerous counter "official statement" clearing the issue.

Short comment: Dirty tactics, that is only done in the philippines.

-  Just sharing -

5 hours ago, K0RN - RETIR3D said:

Why Most Traders Never Succeed

Most traders never succeed because they trade without a quantified system with an edge, they trade too big, and they trade based on their emotions, ego, and predictions not price action. This is the opposite of what is needed to be a successful trader. A successful trader uses a quantified system with an edge, trades it with proper position sizing, and follows it with discipline regardless of how they feel or what their opinion is.

 

What Percentage of Traders are Successful?

Many studies point to research showing 90% of traders lose money and only 10% are profitable. I would add that only 1% are very successful making life changing money. Most traders start with the dream of getting rich quick and thinking that trading is easy money or that they are special and talented.

40% of people trade for only one month. 80% of new traders quit within the first two years. Only 7% remain after five years.

Trading is a professional endeavor with a low barrier to entry causing a high losing rate. Unlike professional sports, medicine, and law that requires years of preparation and education you can open a brokerage account and start trading the same day with no experience or education against professionals. There is a high losing rate in all professional fields when counted from the start to the final success of making money. Why would trading be any different?

 

What Causes Traders to Fail?

Most traders fail because they don’t put in the time and do the work to learn how to be a profitable trader.
They risk too much to make too little. They have no edge and act like gamblers playing into the hands of market, buying high and selling low.
They have no edge and the odds are against their success over the long term. They focus on their own opinions, predictions, and are lead by how they feel and not focusing on what is actually happening in the market.

 

5 Reasons Why Traders Lose Money

• They try to pick tops and bottoms on charts instead of trading the swings and trends as they occur.
• They take profits too early worried about losing their small profit so they miss the big profits.
• They hold losing trades hoping they go back to even so they can get out and turn small losses into big losses.
• They are bullish in bear markets and bearish in bull markets.
• They trade so big that a few losses give back any profits eventually.

To simply put this lengthy concept. People always choose, the easy way around. 

I'll give you an example, in my years of trading journey there were lots of individuals ask me whether a reco to buy/sell, to teach them with/without pay, to guide them or work hand in hand with them so they will be able to grasp the concept of trading in the markets. 

What's funny is, the 1st filter that I always do is to ask them to read a book. Let's say, I ask them to read "how to make money in stocks" and told them read 4 chapters and try to understand the concept at your own pace and then look the things you have learn on the chart (try your best). Then let's discuss (I even mentioned ask me anything). You know what happens everytime? They never came back. 😂😂😂 

Sometimes, I ask people to read a 1hr/2hr read book. Guess what happens? They still never came back 😂😂😂

Only a few of them, finished the task, in my experienced 2 people vs a 100. Anong maririnig mo dun sa mga naglaho, kesyo busy, kesyo walang time. All that you can find in "reasons.com". This was the norm honestly.

In which, they didn't know that it is one of the reasons why they are loosing their hard earned money. 

If anyone might ask? Kelan ba gumagaling normally yung magagaling? They started after loosing a big amount of money. After kasi nun, binabalikan yung past mistakes, nagdedicate na ng time on improving oneself in terms of trading at nagiging disiplinado na (overtime). Of course, there are lots of exception to this, normal act would be after their huge loss. Isusumpa na to. hahaha

6 hours ago, K0RN - RETIR3D said:

Looks good. Could have been better if nashare mo yung mga Top Buyers and Sellers so we could dig deeper. 

Top buyer and sellers per name is provided by the brokers. Anyone could see it, if they wanted to. 

There is some guys, in investa community before that is generating that stuff for all names, I just see it as a gray area. To me, one vital information or i must say an arsenal is knowing how to determine the institutional footprints. To simply put, how to determine, if a name is being accumulated.

I don't normally check it, since I dont do broker analysis. What I'm only showing on the particular post you commented was how stocks move in cycles and groups. Thats it!

For those interested what happen to the energy names, check it with your brokers/charting tool/google it. All names drop from their prices before.

Meanwhile, Anyone might possibly think. A durog pala, US at PSEI. Lipat ko kaya sa crypto. 

Guess what, durog din at under pressure. Here's how it looks at the moment. 

Hopefully, people in this thread, will realize the main reason why from the start since I posted in here. That it's a must to study the markets before putting your hard earn money on it.

Those people who's ignorant, and merely gamblers (not knowing what their doing), will surely be punished in time.

Few points to answer the above inquiry.

The election results is being price in by the market itself. To be specific, any event that is happening on the whole wide world or the country is being price in by the market.

Few tips for PSE: It is wise to know, what the incoming president (in this case BBM), will deeply focus on. Since, you will see some movement on that particular group or specific name. Here's an example, if BBM will focus on improving the internet services in the country. For sure, you will see price movement on the internet companies in the upside. Vice-versa, for those project that BBM will not prioritize or avoid (perhaps, a conflict to BBM) will also have a great impact. So meaning, that particular group or stock will fall.

If you look into history, Ex. Pduts in his time as a president, Ayala and MVP had a conflict with him for sometime. Guess what happen to Ayala stock and MVP stock. It falls hardly.

You can see it, through the chart. If you are just patient enough to look/validate what I am stating in here. 

RE: the news, that circulated in the soc med, after "BBM's partial results unofficial winner" may 10 news to be exact. Most of the guys/girls reading in here for quite sometime are already aware that it was a fake news. Since, the market has been underpressure/experiencing a sell-off, prior to the election. Same thing goes at the US markets (fed tightening/potential global recession). :D

As you can see, I have already posted before. That any information, news, catalyst, should be validated through price. If it is true or not. And not, just take it and believe it easily. The news doesn't really matter, it's the reaction to the news/catalyst/fundamentals matters most.

Here's how the US/PSEI markets looks like at the moment. So the people in here will have some visuals what I am talking about.

I do hope I share some clarity rather than fear.

On 4/27/2022 at 9:57 PM, The Specialist said:

out of over 300 names listed in the psei. Remaining uptrend names, now goes to 9. Bigay ko na yung isa, since given naman, $EMP is a part of those list. 

The rest is diving, as deep as the market would like it to go.

Just a quick update. Remaining uptrend names is down to 3. with the 2 (outliers names) are already extended from my point of view. And 1 is basing out. In short, I haven't seen any name that has a setup for me to do something. I got 1 outlier name, but I am just trailing this. One spike, I might sold half and trail remaining. This trade was just a low size trade. It was having a relative strength that is why I still hold it.

Few points, in a relatively weak market. There is nothing to be aggressive, if you want to try to buy a name (test buy) let say, 1-2 position, try observing it after your initial purchase, if it will work. If not I think you already know the answer, no need to buy another 1, since clearly your strategy is not working. I would suggest to use atleast 5% of your portfolio and employ a good risk management skills at all times.

Sa mga ipit naman, use the rally to sell the position or atleast reduce the position. That is the only way, to lessen the bleeding. If you think that it will go back to your purchase price quickly, your wrong, especially for those in a clear downtrending stock. 

For those in cash, just be patient and keep your list updated. I honestly think, that there is nothing to do at the moment in the PSEI. And those that aggressive at this point in time and fail to manage risk will be slaughtered.

Alam ko nashare ko na to before dito, ung 50/80 rule. Konti nalang, down 50% na tong previously favored stock name na to.

Ulitin ko nalang ulet dito. Once a leadership move ended. There is a 50% chance, that it will go down 80% and there is an 80% chance, it will go down 50%.

Stock highlight for today is $ACEN. 44% down already from the top. At Naalala ko din ung ibang nagcomment na "oks lang yan bro, aangat din yan".  "Solid naman funda, tas magandang company". 

Ngaun ako naman ang magtatanong. If it is a good company or a stock to be bought, tingin nyo why its price not going up? Kelan kaya aangat? Kung hawak mo to, ok ka pren ba, if down ka na ng 20-44% on a stock? Sana di ka na-stress. 😅

Sa mga nalinawan sa pwedeng mangyari if trade/invest lang ng di nag-aaral at di marunong mag-manage ng risk. I do hope, you could learn something from the experienced. Then again, I am not a market top/bottom caller. This can either stop at 50% or pwede rin namang 80%. No one knows really.

Good luck! and just sharing stuff. Post not meant to harm anyone.

out of over 300 names listed in the psei. Remaining uptrend names, now goes to 9. Bigay ko na yung isa, since given naman, $EMP is a part of those list. 

The rest is diving, as deep as the market would like it to go.

3 hours ago, Batang hampas lupa said:

Sir the especialist ano ang insight mo kay emp? May chance ba ito na umakyat sa 20/ sh?

 

Do you think i have a crystal ball to tell so, sir? hehehe. Binigay ko na nga ung catalyst e.

How about a twist, if i may ask you. Why do you think the price of $EMP will rise to 20/ish or more? What will invalidate the trade idea? What makes its price action different to the other names, that you think it will reach that price, at this point in time? Does risk, outweighs the reward?

In case you bought it, at what price level you think, that the trade is invalidated? And how much size should you buy in percentage of your port?

If you can answer those, there you go. You have a precise plan. Just follow it.

risk off markets for psei. My personal thoughts, the market is trying to price in the damage done to US markets few days ago.

What i'm doing lately was to keep my WL fresh, and just patiently waiting for a low risk entry and my setup. I'm all cash right now.

Not sure if everyone happen to see, my last post (decided to hide it). Since I don't want to scare anyone, also that is only a study/thesis that needs some confirmation from the market. But since this already started to unfold. Let me write a little about it.

That day, I noticed some weakness, on one prior leader name. To be specific, $MER. For some reason, I noticed that it was being distributed (at least from how the way I interpret it). I understand that it may be different from the others. 

I believe, I already written some articles or comments in the thread that stocks moves in cycles/groups. Whether it is on the upside/sideways/down. Of course, it won't be a leader if the move will not be started by it, and the other members of the group didn't follow. There are some outliers, but to be specific, the one I want to show is the group move. 

So let's now see, $MER (previous leader for my stand point for energy name)

- coming from it's base. 20% upside. (box in blue)

- then come april 12, 2022 ( I noticed a sell-off on huge volume). Then followed by continuous selling days (breaking supports). See attached

Now let's see other energy name like (AP, SPNEC, ACEN) on that same date forward. Attached screen print for reference.

Please bear mind, that this was a thesis. It's never my style to predict, but rather I only interpret what the price action is telling. Just to be clear, I never recommended anything whether it was a buy or a sell. All I want to say, at this point is, good luck on the energy name holders out there!

Great evening to all!

On 4/15/2022 at 1:06 AM, zener said:

Ang lakas ng tama ng empi. 

Congrats, if you happen to bought it (april 13, 2022) and hold it. You must be a tape reader, or you happen to read/understand the disclosure of the company prior to its move (meaning you already have it on your list). I don't personally own the name, but for those guys/girls that is clueless why it move. The catalyst is "EMP will be added to SGX exchange".

On 4/12/2022 at 10:46 AM, Louvre said:

Ilang percent ba ng mga Pinoy ang nag-iinvest sa Stock Market?

I believe that the answer to this question, can be answered perfectly by "googling". I don't have the exact numbers, but it's pretty low compared to the other countries and exchanges, that is if you are referring to "PSEI" itself.

All about exposure: 

Let's say, you have already bought some names, probably at 20-25% port exposure (probe/test buy). The way how to gauge the market/trade idea, is that test buy working? What is happening at your buy alert list, are they confirming (gain) or not following through (moving on the downside), or just merely in a sideways?

If the answer is yes, meaning your making money, you have a cushion probably at 6-10% up on a name. Okay, you could add to an existing position, or even buy some other names. Since your strategy is working.

If the answer is no, meaning your not making money. I don't see any a good reason, why an individual should buy more. Here's the reason why, if you are not profitable at 20-25% exposure, there is no intelligent reason why you should increase exposure to 50-75% exposure. Same goes, if you are at 50% port exposure, there is no intelligent reason why should anyone should increase exposure to even 75-100% port exposure. Why? It is for only for this vital reasons, clearly your strategy is not working at the moment, the market might be in a difficult environment to be in it, or your criteria might be bad.

If one is not discipline enough, to wait for their strategy to work, before they comes in the market. You don't have a strategy, what you have is an addiction "addiction to trade". A good trading strategy or a perfect system, doesn't really matter, if one individual was not discipline enough to follow it. And I bet, those guys/girls will be taking the hit, and will probably have a tough time in their investing journey. 

Always remember, if you are the one managing your port or fund. All decision is made by "You Alone", whether you got a reco from this one site, a good research that you believe in, a good trade idea that you have tested to bought/sold. Remember trading and investing, is a one-man job. Meaning, Ikaw pren ung pumindot nyan, whether it is a buy/sell. So be accountable to it. Else, if your having the money managed by a fund manager, that's a different story.

On 4/7/2022 at 8:05 PM, Batang hampas lupa said:

Yan ang tanong na gusto ko rin itanong kay THE SPECIALIST.....

I think, I have already stated before that I don't do reco's. Analyst do that, and I am not one of them, you could refer to the broker's site if you wish for that info. All information I have shared in here, is the lesson I have learned overtime, some trades that I have taken in the past for examples and reference, thought processes during and after the trade, and timeless principles I used in the markets. If those are not helpful enough for you, or for anyone. I don't know, how could I further help or contribute.

I am just a mere stock operator/speculator, that trades/invest in the market using/bounded by a trading system. To me the best stock, is the name that you could find on your own.

Now, if an individual could not get a leader, that's a room for improvement. If you could not get your port to gain, again that's a room improvement, If an individual, looses a big amount of money, again that's a room for improvement. And ano nga ba basically ung ginagawa para mag-improve ang isang tao? Or somewhat matuto ng isang skill? I bet you could answer it already. 

Also, based on the trades that you have taken. We don't look for the same criteria. I don't buy a downtrending stock, and will never do in my future trades. So I won't be helpful for you that enough, since I am not a bottom picker.  

Have a nice day!