South China/West Philippine Sea

[boibastos]

a direct conflict between china and the US would draw lines in the sand

 

NATO automatically goes with the US

Syria, Iran, et. al. will go China, Russia probably will too

NoKor will go Chinese

Pakistan will go Chinese

India will go where Pakistan isn't

 

so yeah it might lead to a global conflict. Both China and the US (when they intervene) will have to maneouver this gingerly. Both countries know the consequences of going nuclear. But some of the allied countries might not care. Pakistan and India for instance, those two have just been chomping at the bit for a reason to launch. Something as big as this might be it.

 

And lest everyone forget, israel never lost public enemy no.1 in it's area. A dustup between the major powers would certainly get some of its enemies thinking that it would be an excellent time to settle old scores. Israel is VERY public about using nukes if things don't go their way.

[Larry]

if this gets into an actual shooting war with China

 

it won't be limited to just the region, that's almost a guarantee.

 

the arabs will get wind of this, and china will look to cooperate with them, escalate things in the mediterranean and in Afghanistan.

 

Russia joins because Syria is in it, and a China beat down by the US is something they can't allow, that's too much power for any one nation, and the US would be right next door, annexing resources as close siberia. Politically they won't have a choice. Although probably at the start Russia will fight via proxy i.e. terrorist groups cold war style, but they will have to join in sometime. It would just be too much for putin to handle for America to theoretically own two of the biggest land masses in the world.

 

If it becomes a full on war between china and the US, this won't be a brushfire conflict like what we see in the middle east. The stakes are too high, and the participants too powerful for the rest of the world not to be engulfed.

 

The scary thing is it only takes one shot to escalate the situation into something that can't be stopped.

[Larry]

And lest everyone forget, israel never lost public enemy no.1 in it's area. A dustup between the major powers would certainly get some of its enemies thinking that it would be an excellent time to settle old scores. Israel is VERY public about using nukes if things don't go their way.

 

it's crazy how goddamn close we are to a full blown nuclear conflict. in 1947 the doomsday clock was at 8 minutes to midnight, it went to an all time low of 17 minutes at the end of the cold war. Right now we're at 5 minutes.

 

and to think this BS should have stopped by the end of the cold war.

[boibastos]

I'm only counting on Nokor to join in the fray because the others are just too far. Russia? I'm still 50-50 regarding its participation with China and Nokor (Axis) unless it has a base on the Asian side. Let's confine this scenario to nearby countries. Of course, the ASEAN will side with the US. I'm not exactly sure if China has the guts to start a nuclear war but if this were just conventional warfare like in Iraq, China will be virtually surrounded by US Allies. These US Allies will provide logistics and bases where the US will launch attacks from multiple points. The US can strike from the Southwest (India), South and Souteast (ASEAN) and the Northeast (Japan and South Korea). This will be a nightmare for the Chinese because if the US decides to bomb them, the US has multiple attack points.

 

I bet that the second china declares war, nokor'll have at least five divisions over the dmz with more on the way. This is assuming they don't launch nukes as a first strike. If they immediately bring nukes into play, nothing is going to be left of the south to invade or defend.

 

The russians would play. That's for sure. But which side is a question mark. They're neighbors with china. It'll be tempting on their part to slice pieces of it for themselves especially if things don't go well for china in a conventional war. They'll definitely make a play for some of the former soviet republics nearby.

 

Doubt the US and their allies can launch attacks or troops from india as those guys and the pakis will probably be smacking each other around when the bell goes up. Makes more sense for them to use japan, taiwan and us as staging bases.

Edited January 16, 2014 by boibastos

[dos8dos]

a direct conflict between china and the US would draw lines in the sand

 

NATO automatically goes with the US

Syria, Iran, et. al. will go China, Russia probably will too

NoKor will go Chinese

Pakistan will go Chinese

India will go where Pakistan isn't

 

so yeah it might lead to a global conflict. Both China and the US (when they intervene) will have to maneouver this gingerly. Both countries know the consequences of going nuclear. But some of the allied countries might not care. Pakistan and India for instance, those two have just been chomping at the bit for a reason to launch. Something as big as this might be it.

 

the risk of armageddon far outweighs the benefit of maintaining national pride of their (US) regional allies' with this island dispute together with the purported mineral deposits

 

dont go way ahead pitting china & USA, its far fetch, both power will play this new cold war SMARTLY

Edited January 16, 2014 by dos8dos

[boibastos]

it's crazy how goddamn close we are to a full blown nuclear conflict. in 1947 the doomsday clock was at 8 minutes to midnight, it went to an all time low of 17 minutes at the end of the cold war. Right now we're at 5 minutes.

 

and to think this BS should have stopped by the end of the cold war.

 

Too much bad blood. Too many nations want resources that are already dwindling. Some are already thinking to expand their economic region if not their actual borders. I think time is running out on the five mins we have left.

 

Hope it doesn't happen in our lifetime, but i honestly think given the world situation it's a question of when rather than an if.

[sonnyt111]

Haha! I suggest that you put him in your ignore list.

 

Consider him in my ignore list as well. I've had enough of this guy. Should have done this a long time ago

[sonnyt111]

The chinese are apparently stronger economically and militarily now than they were during W's time so maybe it's more of the timing than the latter's policies that kept them relatively quiet. I agree that the chinese are pushing to see what they can get away with before the US threatens to bring out the stick. But my concern is they can get away with a whole lot where we are concerned as we have next to nothing to defend our interests in our dispute with them.

 

I suppose the question is, at what point will the US act and what will they do? Say for example, a huge deposit of oil is found in the area we are claiming and the chinese start building structures and sending people to secure/exploit it. The chinese have never listened to our bitching about how this should be settled by maritime law, doubt they'll listen to us then. Will the US then send its military and risk a shooting war, or will they just allow the chinese to benefit at our expense?

This is a very good question. One that remains to be seen.

[sonnyt111]

I agree with you that the Chinese are stronger economically and militarily than during W's time but that fact notwithstanding, the Chinese military would need a prayer to actually beat its US counterpart.

 

To answer your question and in my opinion, the US will intervene as a last resort should the Chinese push it further by sinking ships and shooting down planes in its self-proclaimed "no fly" zone. One international incident would be enough, in my opinion, to make the US deploy a super carrier in the area where the incident took place.

 

 

IMO you are right. Agreed. It just takes one major international incident like sinking a Japanese, Philippine, or South Korean ship that could make the US intervene. The Chinese need to be extremely careful lest they miscalculate and reap the whirlwind.

[sonnyt111]

IMO

 

it's in the best interests of the US to intervene.

 

1) they can't allow China to just move in by force and do what it wants. It sets a precedent and tips the balance towards the Chinese. They can't risk having a fast growing superpower like that move unchecked. It makes china stronger and bolder, as it weakens US influence in the region.

 

2) the promise of oil in that area will bring the Americans as it always had anywhere else in the world. It's better for them to have that oil controlled by a friendly (i.e. us) and sold back to them at a cheap price (or they could control it and sell it to us at a cheap price) than have a potential rival have control over that and use it to strengthen their own position. Again it will only serve China and weaken the US position.

 

Take note though, that US action doesn't automatically mean a shooting war. It can take the form of international pressure, or diplomatic sanctions, or just the threat of a carrier strike group a few miles away from your coastline (they can deploy two and can easily have at least 2 more at the ready). Just look at what they did at that ADIZ in the east china sea, china moves to stake a claim, the US says "f#&k you, I double dare you to back up that claim" and flies two planes unannounced and unchallenged.

 

China has to realize that we're no longer in the 1800s where unclaimed lands can be easily claimed without upsetting the global status quo.

Excellent analysis as usual bro Larry.

[sonnyt111]

if this gets into an actual shooting war with China

 

it won't be limited to just the region, that's almost a guarantee.

 

the arabs will get wind of this, and china will look to cooperate with them, escalate things in the mediterranean and in Afghanistan.

 

Russia joins because Syria is in it, and a China beat down by the US is something they can't allow, that's too much power for any one nation, and the US would be right next door, annexing resources as close siberia. Politically they won't have a choice. Although probably at the start Russia will fight via proxy i.e. terrorist groups cold war style, but they will have to join in sometime. It would just be too much for putin to handle for America to theoretically own two of the biggest land masses in the world.

 

If it becomes a full on war between china and the US, this won't be a brushfire conflict like what we see in the middle east. The stakes are too high, and the participants too powerful for the rest of the world not to be engulfed.

 

The scary thing is it only takes one shot to escalate the situation into something that can't be stopped.

Suddenly that Stuxnet malware seems pretty attractive if it can target Chinese industries that are geared for war.

Edited January 16, 2014 by sonnyt111

[sonnyt111]

Ok. Let's say it's a WWIII scenario with the main event in the South China Sea theater. The Russians will have to deal with NATO from the West, Pakistan and India will cancel each other out, Israel will take care of Syria and I really think the Israelis have the firepower to beat the Syrians to submission. In the main event, which will be in the South China Sea theater, China and Nokor are left to fend for themselves as the ASEAN, Japan, Sokor and the US punish them to submission. If worse comes to worst and China goes nuclear, that will be the end of China and Nokor. I absolutely won't discount the possibility of the Chinese nuking Manila and other major Philippine cities.

They could also nuke Tokyo and Seoul for that matter. But I believe the use of nukes will be a last alternative on all sides. Hopefully it will never ever come to this.

[sonnyt111]

I bet that the second china declares war, nokor'll have at least five divisions over the dmz with more on the way. This is assuming they don't launch nukes as a first strike. If they immediately bring nukes into play, nothing is going to be left of the south to invade or defend.

 

The russians would play. That's for sure. But which side is a question mark. They're neighbors with china. It'll be tempting on their part to slice pieces of it for themselves especially if things don't go well for china in a conventional war. They'll definitely make a play for some of the former soviet republics nearby.

 

Doubt the US and their allies can launch attacks or troops from india as those guys and the pakis will probably be smacking each other around when the bell goes up. Makes more sense for them to use japan, taiwan and us as staging bases.

Oh yeah I forgot, North Korea is led by a madman who may not exhaust all avenues for a shot at peace. He may conduct a first nuclear strike against South Korea if China were to go to war. The way he's been talking lately, it's as if he's just dying to attack the South.

[Bugatti Veyron]

Yes, they could but China won't risk annihilating their neighbors because if they do, they'd get annihilated by multiple nuclear strikes from the US.

We're back to square one. Mutually Assured Destruction. Something I thought was a thing of the past. No wonder the Doomsday Clock has been advanced significantly since the USSR disintegrated in 1991

[Bugatti Veyron]

a direct conflict between china and the US would draw lines in the sand

 

NATO automatically goes with the US

Syria, Iran, et. al. will go China, Russia probably will too

NoKor will go Chinese

Pakistan will go Chinese

India will go where Pakistan isn't

 

so yeah it might lead to a global conflict. Both China and the US (when they intervene) will have to maneouver this gingerly. Both countries know the consequences of going nuclear. But some of the allied countries might not care. Pakistan and India for instance, those two have just been chomping at the bit for a reason to launch. Something as big as this might be it.

Pakistan and India both have nuclear weapons but, by some miracle, both have shown restrain in their use. They know fully well the repercussions of a full nuclear exchange. So if they know this, so does China.

 

The only one that I cannot be sure of is North Korea. Kim Jong On seems to be getting nuttier by the day. China probably recognizes the unpredictability/instability/irrational nature of their ally that they will probably tread more carefully, making sure they don't do anything to push Kim Jong On over the edge by doing something stupid. Like declaring war on the US and its allies which could be construed by the North Korean leader as a go signal to nuke South Korea.

Edited January 16, 2014 by Bugatti Veyron