The Art of War

[bekim]

Why is it that the Americans can't seem to win the war when they are fighting soldiers wearing only pajamas, the Viet Congs in their black pajamas and now the Afghanistans in their white pajamas?

[TheSmilingBandit]

It would not have been possible to traverse the Alps without engineers since you needed them to break big boulders and the engineers of Hannibal concocted a formula to break big boulders. The heated the boulders using fire then poured vinegar on it to break it.

Polybus stated that Hannibal left Iberia with 90,000 Infantry and 12,000 Cavalry as well as 'many' war elephants. We know that he left around 11,000 men to garrison the Pyrenees, when he arrived in Italy (after conquering the Pyrenees and crossing Gaul and the Alps) he had about 20,000 Infantry and 4,000 Cavalry and a 'few' war elephants. If he had engineers he wouldn't have lost so much men and horses and elephants. While the destruction of rockfalls is a fact, it seemed to have been done more out of desperation than engineering. Perhaps he had a few, however not enough engineers to help him besiege the various Italian cities, much less the city on the Tiber.

 

Why is it that the Americans can't seem to win the war when they are fighting soldiers wearing only pajamas, the Viet Congs in their black pajamas and now the Afghanistans in their white pajamas?

The only modern army to defeat a guerrilla force was the British army when they defeated the Malaysian insurgents in the early 60's, even then, when the Brits moved out, the insurgents returned. Even the AFP can't seem to beat the CPP-NPA and the MNLF-MILF-ASG rebels.

[macbolan00]

correction, the philippine government managed to eradicate the huk-balahap movement through peaceful means. same with the mnlf (although it remains a militant armed force.) only the NPA, MILF and ASG are actively fighting the AFP. the NPA can live off the land and the local populace through active support and extortion. the MILF has a multi-level support of a sizable muslim population (from rich to poor, bums to intellectuals.) but because of this, it is also amenable to peaceful negotiations. the ASG is nothing more than a bandit group with no real capability to maintain an armed campaign with the government (or even maintain terroristic pressure on metro manila and other city centers.)

[TheSmilingBandit]

correction, the philippine government managed to eradicate the huk-balahap movement through peaceful means.

I stand corrected, yes the Hukbalahap movement was also ended using the same tactics that worked for the British, destroy popular support for the insurgents. Though of course, like the Malayan insurgents, the Hukbalahap movement was survived by the CPP-NPA.

 

same with the mnlf (although it remains a militant armed force.)

LOL, the more militant members just distanced themselves to form the MILF so that the MNLF can become mainstream. The MNLF-MILF-ASG are just factions of the same cause.

 

only the NPA, MILF and ASG are actively fighting the AFP. the NPA can live off the land and the local populace through active support and extortion. the MILF has a multi-level support of a sizable muslim population (from rich to poor, bums to intellectuals.) but because of this, it is also amenable to peaceful negotiations. the ASG is nothing more than a bandit group with no real capability to maintain an armed campaign with the government (or even maintain terroristic pressure on metro manila and other city centers.)

The NPAs support base seems to be actually small now, they exist due to brigandage more than anything else it seems. The MILF is just trying to expand the territory for their more 'pacifist' brethren in the MNLF while the ASG is their total 'hard-liners extremist faction' that can be blamed for anything else. Edited December 21, 2009 by TheSmilingBandit

[macbolan00]

hey, the 1996 peace treaty signed by misuari's MNLF and ramos' government was no joke. there has not been any serious armed conflict with the mnlf since then (except for a few gun-pointing at times, especially when misuari was accused of whatever crime there was --from malversation of ARMM funds all the way to treason.) milf is going the same way, why? because it's a classic within a classic. those movements feed on the economy propped up by the national government and if you want to stick around, you migth as well get good terms with the government. the ASG is really just a bandit group that can operate in the southwestern-most part of the country, where the rule of law is practically absent. and this is nothing to cry about since only 3% of the population lives there (who happen to be among the poorest and least educated,) and they contribute a whopping 1% of the country's annual gdp. if i was president, i'll really leave that place to the dogs.

[kiepher7]

Cool thread! anyone have any thoughts on what would happen should Israel launch a preemptive strike on Iran? I just want to know what my Filipino comrades think about this hypothetical..

[Guest hastati]

Cool thread! anyone have any thoughts on what would happen should Israel launch a preemptive strike on Iran? I just want to know what my Filipino comrades think about this hypothetical..

I think Iran will launch a nuclear strike but then again, David's brethren won't let that happen since the first thing they'll target are the nuclear weapons of Iran.

[Guest hastati]

Polybus stated that Hannibal left Iberia with 90,000 Infantry and 12,000 Cavalry as well as 'many' war elephants. We know that he left around 11,000 men to garrison the Pyrenees, when he arrived in Italy (after conquering the Pyrenees and crossing Gaul and the Alps) he had about 20,000 Infantry and 4,000 Cavalry and a 'few' war elephants. If he had engineers he wouldn't have lost so much men and horses and elephants. While the destruction of rockfalls is a fact, it seemed to have been done more out of desperation than engineering. Perhaps he had a few, however not enough engineers to help him besiege the various Italian cities, much less the city on the Tiber.

Yes he had engineers albeit only a few. Have you watched Battles BC on History Channel?

[TheSmilingBandit]

hey, the 1996 peace treaty signed by misuari's MNLF and ramos' government was no joke. there has not been any serious armed conflict with the mnlf since then (except for a few gun-pointing at times, especially when misuari was accused of whatever crime there was --from malversation of ARMM funds all the way to treason.) milf is going the same way, why? because it's a classic within a classic. those movements feed on the economy propped up by the national government and if you want to stick around, you migth as well get good terms with the government. the ASG is really just a bandit group that can operate in the southwestern-most part of the country, where the rule of law is practically absent. and this is nothing to cry about since only 3% of the population lives there (who happen to be among the poorest and least educated,) and they contribute a whopping 1% of the country's annual gdp. if i was president, i'll really leave that place to the dogs.

The way I figure it, the MNLF wanted to go mainstream, so they got all their extremist members to form a splinter group, the MILF, (sort of like semi-tame attack dogs) to maintain the pressure of rebellion while they became the more reasonable alternative. Of course, after all these years, the MILF wanted to do the same thing, so they formed the ASG as their own splinter faction.

 

Cool thread! anyone have any thoughts on what would happen should Israel launch a preemptive strike on Iran? I just want to know what my Filipino comrades think about this hypothetical..

I think Iran will launch a nuclear strike but then again, David's brethren won't let that happen since the first thing they'll target are the nuclear weapons of Iran.

Israel isn't insane, any attempts to START a war would leave their nation in shreds. Its like the RP declaring war on China.

 

Yes he had engineers albeit only a few. Have you watched Battles BC on History Channel?

Sorry, not really, most of what I know is from reading various treaties and papers on military history. The best source of info is Dupuy's Encyclopedia on Military Warfare.

[macbolan00]

THE FIRST STRIKE

 

well, you have to have known the crucial events that took place during the pivotal world war 2 naval battle at midway and why it spelled the end of japanese expansion, and the start of japan's defeat. how could the japanese armada of 11 battleships, 8 carriers, 23 cruisers and 65 destroyers have met defeat against a US navy with no battleships, just three carriers and less than 20 cruisers? the japanese lost their 4 best carriers and 300 of their best pilots. the americans lost 1 carrier and less than 100 planes. the japanese were more experienced, had better ships (more or less,) had superior fighter planes, and most importantly, far better pilots.

 

american initiative - on june 4 when the carrier-to-carrier engagement went into high gear, the US carriers scrambled at day break to achieve a first strike. the fact that the first 3 american carrier-based air strikes that morning failed to hit any japanese carrier (in addition to practically getting wipred out) is not material, as currently taught at the US naval academy. the american dive bombers (the fourth strike) found three japanese carriers with no fighter escort, as the carriers were in the process of landing bombers and re-arming them. three japanese cariers were put out of action in six minutes. what would have matter was if the japanese taught of achieving a first strike at day break, which they didn't, opting for a larger, coordinated acctack later that day. it didn't matter that one american carrier was later hit. the fourth japanese carrier in the striking force was eventually knocked out that afternoon. american theoreticians believe that had the striking force admiral nagumo insisted on a first strike, the three american carriers would have been sunk before night fall, and the pacific war would have lasted at least 2 years longer. personally, i don't buy the first strike theory as the main deciding factor in the battle. again, the first three american strikes failed. but the theory goes that whoever is ahead by one strike during the day is bound to win before nigthfall. let them think that.

 

japanese overmatch - despite the overwhelming japanese advantage in numbers and resources, they were overmatched in terms of objective. this is my primary belief as to why they lost. it was the very first mid-ocean battle by carriers and the problems of intelligence, communication, and command uncertainties were enormous. most importantly, the japanese carrier striking force had another major mission, aside from neutralizing the american carriers. they were also supposed to bomb and flatten midway island to facilitate invasion. so the amercian situation was simplified: ambush the japanese carriers. the japanese had a two-fisted objective: sink the US carriers and flatten midway. nagumo's first action on june 4 was to bomb midway island. later, he vaccilated between a second strike at midway, or attack the US carriers. somewhere during that confusion, he got caught flat-footed.

 

airborne radio - a minor advantage the americans had which i don't believe was a significant factor. japanese fighter planes had no radio. to protect the carriers and the rest of the fleet, the japanese zeros took pre-assigned air sectors and engaged any enemy plane they spotted. only japanese bombers (not all) had radios. american fighters had radios and air defense of a fleet was coordinated from the ships. the carriers operated like a control tower, directing fighters to sectors where they were needed. americans claim that was the reason the japanes bombers took heavy losses in attacking the carrier yorktown. it was also the reason why the 4th american strike hit the japanese: the zeros were down to sea level, having shot down most of the low-flying american torpedo planes. but that meant no zero left to patrol the higher altitudes for american dive bombers. my take on this: more crap than real advantage. if we look at bomber performance, the americans sent three carrier-based strikes plus one attack by land-based b-17s against the japanese. no hits on the japanese were achieved and the americans got creamed. when it was time for the remaining japanese carrier hiryu to strike back, it sent two strike missions against the american carriers and it scored both times.

 

so my final take the japanese should have lumped its forces into just two groups (instead of four.) air and firepower would have been more concetrated and a win by attrition would have been certain.

[skitz]

Crucial of course was the American intelligence breaking the Japanese code (communication, AF was MIDWAY!)

 

The Americans knew what they were up against. The Japanese expected little or no resistance. They were surprised by their surprise attack. Poetic justice!

Edited December 22, 2009 by skitz

[TheSmilingBandit]

THE FIRST STRIKE

 

well, you have to have known the crucial events that took place during the pivotal world war 2 naval battle at midway and why it spelled the end of japanese expansion, and the start of japan's defeat. how could the japanese armada of 11 battleships, 8 carriers, 23 cruisers and 65 destroyers have met defeat against a US navy with no battleships, just three carriers and less than 20 cruisers? the japanese lost their 4 best carriers and 300 of their best pilots. the americans lost 1 carrier and less than 100 planes. the japanese were more experienced, had better ships (more or less,) had superior fighter planes, and most importantly, far better pilots.

Excellent analysis, I mostly agree. Though the Japanese used only 7 battleships, 6 carriers, and 56 other ships (including transports), as well as carrying 250 (+/-) aircraft versus the Americans 3 carriers, 25 other ships, and 460 (+/-) aircraft including those based on Midway. The various Japanese aircraft were indeed superior to the American planes, as was their experience (of course, the fact that these Japanese pilots had been in constant operations for several months meant that pilot fatigue was also pretty high, not to mention that most of their aircraft had already been stressed and in need of repairs). Oh, and the Americans lost over 150 planes in Midway, though few were piloted by experienced pilots as compared to the loss by the Japanese of most of their elite naval air arm.

 

american initiative - on june 4 when the carrier-to-carrier engagement went into high gear, the US carriers scrambled at day break to achieve a first strike. the fact that the first 3 american carrier-based air strikes that morning failed to hit any japanese carrier (in addition to practically getting wipred out) is not material, as currently taught at the US naval academy. the american dive bombers (the fourth strike) found three japanese carriers with no fighter escort, as the carriers were in the process of landing bombers and re-arming them. three japanese cariers were put out of action in six minutes. what would have matter was if the japanese taught of achieving a first strike at day break, which they didn't, opting for a larger, coordinated acctack later that day. it didn't matter that one american carrier was later hit. the fourth japanese carrier in the striking force was eventually knocked out that afternoon. american theoreticians believe that had the striking force admiral nagumo insisted on a first strike, the three american carriers would have been sunk before night fall, and the pacific war would have lasted at least 2 years longer. personally, i don't buy the first strike theory as the main deciding factor in the battle. again, the first three american strikes failed. but the theory goes that whoever is ahead by one strike during the day is bound to win before nigthfall. let them think that.

How could Admiral Nagumo insist on a first strike when he was unaware of the existence of the American task groups nearby? More importantly, the Japanese were suffering from 'victory disease' by this point, assuming that they would always have the initiative and that the Americans would only be reacting to their actions. I agree that its not the first strike that counts (though it often helps keep the enemy off-balance), and in this case, the 3 lost American strikes cost the Japanese carriers their air cover as well as disrupting their formations.

 

japanese overmatch - despite the overwhelming japanese advantage in numbers and resources, they were overmatched in terms of objective. this is my primary belief as to why they lost. it was the very first mid-ocean battle by carriers and the problems of intelligence, communication, and command uncertainties were enormous. most importantly, the japanese carrier striking force had another major mission, aside from neutralizing the american carriers. they were also supposed to bomb and flatten midway island to facilitate invasion. so the amercian situation was simplified: ambush the japanese carriers. the japanese had a two-fisted objective: sink the US carriers and flatten midway. nagumo's first action on june 4 was to bomb midway island. later, he vaccilated between a second strike at midway, or attack the US carriers. somewhere during that confusion, he got caught flat-footed.

Agreed, Japanese naval planning assumed that there would be no US naval forces nearby until the 7th of June, and their plans, while reasonable, should have planned for this. Oh, BTW, the first mid-ocean battle by carriers would be the Battle of the Coral Sea. More importantly, Admiral Nagumo was assured by Japanese Naval Intelligence that there were only 2 US carriers available for use by the US Pacific Fleet, the Yorktown was assumed to have either been sunk or so heavily damaged that it would have been unable to participate. When Japanese Intelligence radioed a warning about increased radio traffic among the American forces, it was received by the Yamato (Admiral Yamamoto's flagship), but not the Akagi (Admiral Nagumo's flagship), it was not further relayed by the Yamato due to a mistaken assumption that Admiral Nagumo's carriers would have received the same transmission, which they would have if the more modern Shokaku and Zuikaku had been with the carrier fleet.

 

airborne radio - a minor advantage the americans had which i don't believe was a significant factor. japanese fighter planes had no radio. to protect the carriers and the rest of the fleet, the japanese zeros took pre-assigned air sectors and engaged any enemy plane they spotted. only japanese bombers (not all) had radios. american fighters had radios and air defense of a fleet was coordinated from the ships. the carriers operated like a control tower, directing fighters to sectors where they were needed. americans claim that was the reason the japanes bombers took heavy losses in attacking the carrier yorktown. it was also the reason why the 4th american strike hit the japanese: the zeros were down to sea level, having shot down most of the low-flying american torpedo planes. but that meant no zero left to patrol the higher altitudes for american dive bombers. my take on this: more crap than real advantage. if we look at bomber performance, the americans sent three carrier-based strikes plus one attack by land-based b-17s against the japanese. no hits on the japanese were achieved and the americans got creamed. when it was time for the remaining japanese carrier hiryu to strike back, it sent two strike missions against the american carriers and it scored both times.

Ehr, sorry, the A6M Zero, D3A Val, and the B5N Kates all mounted radios, in fact the A6Ms even had a built in radio direction finder for long range navigation. However, the scout plane from the Soryu that found the Yorktown suffered a radio casualty, meaning that they couldn't report their find until after their return to the fleet.

 

so my final take the japanese should have lumped its forces into just two groups (instead of four.) air and firepower would have been more concetrated and a win by attrition would have been certain.

If the Japanese had indeed consolidated their fleet instead of spreading them out over vast distances, then the Americans would have been massacred, furthermore, while the Shokaku had been badly damaged in the Coral Sea battle, the Zuikaku was untouched, losses to the Zuikaku's air wing could have been made up by combining the air wings of both carriers. Together with the Zuiho and the Hosho that would have added another 120+ aircraft to the carrier force. The battleships and cruisers of the Main Force would have considerably beefed up the anti-aircraft fire power of the Carrier Force. The Japanese contributed to their own loss by dividing their forces in detail.

 

Crucial of course was the American intelligence breaking the Japanese code (communication, AF was MIDWAY!)

 

The Americans knew what they were up against. The Japanese expected little or no resistance. They were surprised by their surprise attack. Poetic justice!

Pretty good point, now if only the Japanese had considered on concentrating their forces and with proper scouting, the Battle of Midway would have ended up far differently, and we here in the Philippine Islands would be bowing to the Emperor still. Okay, probably not, since the Japanese plan was to force a truce in 1942, with the Philippines to become a "independent" nation under the umbrella of the Co-prosperity Sphere.

[macbolan00]

Excellent analysis, I mostly agree. Though the Japanese used only 7 battleships, 6 carriers, and 56 other ships (including transports), as well as carrying 250 (+/-) aircraft versus the Americans 3 carriers,

the japanese had 8 carriers. nagumo's first carrier striking force had 4, hosogaya's aleutian force had 2, kondo's second fleet had 1 escort carriers, and yamamoto's main force also had an escort carrier.

 

re: battleships - nagumo had the haruna and kirishima, kondo had the kongo and the heie, yamamoto's main force had 7 battleships.

 

Ehr, sorry, the A6M Zero, D3A Val, and the B5N Kates all mounted radios, in fact the A6Ms even had a built in radio direction finder for long range navigation. However, the scout plane from the Soryu that found the Yorktown suffered a radio casualty, meaning that they couldn't report their find until after their return to the fleet.

zeros were fitted for radios but very rarely did they carry them. definitely not during midway. over at the new guinea air war, saburo sakai admitted none of their zeros ever carried radios (pilots didn't like parachutes either.)

[TheSmilingBandit]

the japanese had 8 carriers. nagumo's first carrier striking force had 4, hosogaya's aleutian force had 2, kondo's second fleet had 1 escort carriers, and yamamoto's main force also had an escort carrier.

 

re: battleships - nagumo had the haruna and kirishima, kondo had the kongo and the heie, yamamoto's main force had 7 battleships.

I see, I only counted the vessels deployed directly against Midway, namely:

 

First Fleet

 

*First Fleet Main Force

Battleship Division (BatDiv) 1: BB Yamato; BB Mutsu; and BB Nagato

Carrier Group: CVE Hosho (B4Y1); DD Yukaze

Special Force: CVS Chiyoda; CVS Nisshin

Screening Force: CL Sendai; DesRon 3 (8 destroyers)

Supply Group: 1 DD; 1 oiler

 

* First Carrier Striking Force (First Air Fleet)

Carrier Division 1 (CarDiv 1): CV Akagi (19 A6M2 Type 21; 18 D3A1; 18 B5N2); CV Kaga (18 A6M2 Type 21; 27 D3A1; 18 B5N2)

Carrier Division 2 (Cardiv 2): CV Hiryu (18 A6M2 Type 21; 18 D3A1; 18 B5N2); CV Soryu (18 A6M2 Type 21; 18 D3A1; 18 B5N2)

Support Group

CruDiv 8: CA Tone; CA Chikuma

BatDiv 3 (2nd section): BB Haruna; BB Kirishima

Screening Force: CL Nagara; Desron 10 (11 destroyers)

Supply Group: 1 DD, 5 oilers

 

Second Fleet (Midway Invasion Group)

BatDiv 3 (1st Section): BB Kongo; BB Hiei

CruDiv 4: CA Atago; CA Chokai

CruDiv5: CA Myoko; CA Haguro

Screening Force: CL Yura; DesRon 4 (7 destoryers)

Carrier Group: CVL Zuiho (12 A6M2, 12 B5N2); 1 DD

 

Any other unit outside of these (well there was the actual transport force and their guardian ships, but I don't seem to be able to find their order of battle) are generally not considered part of the Midway Fleet of the IJN, in fact, if you were to count only the actual combatant vessels and their escorts then only the 1st Carrier Striking Force should count.

zeros were fitted for radios but very rarely did they carry them. definitely not during midway. over at the new guinea air war, saburo sakai admitted none of their zeros ever carried radios (pilots didn't like parachutes either.)

That's strange, how do you think they coordinated their attacks, I'm certain that at least squadron leaders and section leaders carried radios.

[macbolan00]

That's strange, how do you think they coordinated their attacks, I'm certain that at least squadron leaders and section leaders carried radios.

through pre-set sectors reckoned from the position of one's ship. hand signals, flash grenades, or even firing a short burst in case of drastic instructions.

[TheSmilingBandit]

through pre-set sectors reckoned from the position of one's ship. hand signals, flash grenades, or even firing a short burst in case of drastic instructions.

I'm not so sure that was entirely the case all the time. The CAP of the IJN during Midway was ordered down to intercept the Torpedo-Bombers of the USN.

[uaeboy25]

Pretty good point, now if only the Japanese had considered on concentrating their forces and with proper scouting, the Battle of Midway would have ended up far differently, and we here in the Philippine Islands would be bowing to the Emperor still. Okay, probably not, since the Japanese plan was to force a truce in 1942, with the Philippines to become a "independent" nation under the umbrella of the Co-prosperity Sphere.

before may narecieved akong email. about sa surender ng japan. the emperor planned another way to invade. by the use of economic and tecnological strategy. in 40 years they will able to invade not only every country but every households. philippines will be their raw material country. anyway once na nakita ko ulit paste ko dito. good topic anyway.

[Guest hastati]

Feel free to challenge this choice of mine but I think no superpower in the ancient world (pre-gunpowder era) could beat the Mongols. Be it Hannibal, Alexander the Great, Caesar, etc.

[bekim]

correction, the philippine government managed to eradicate the huk-balahap movement through peaceful means. same with the mnlf (although it remains a militant armed force.) only the NPA, MILF and ASG are actively fighting the AFP. the NPA can live off the land and the local populace through active support and extortion. the MILF has a multi-level support of a sizable muslim population (from rich to poor, bums to intellectuals.) but because of this, it is also amenable to peaceful negotiations. the ASG is nothing more than a bandit group with no real capability to maintain an armed campaign with the government (or even maintain terroristic pressure on metro manila and other city centers.)

 

The Huks were defeated by the combined efforts of Ramon Magsaysay as the DND secretary and the disciplinarian officer Col Napoleon Valeriano of the famed "Nenita Unit" which went after the the Huks until they captured Huk supremo Luis Taruc. Hindi pa masyadong corrupt and military nuon unlike what they are now.

[skitz]

I enjoy reading this thread! Though I am not as astute as you guys are but I am a big "fan" of war history nonetheless (I have old copies of "Armchair General" ). Anyway if I can just challenge you a little with a what if:

 

The Battle of Midway was won by the Japanese (it could have gone either way, luck was simply on the American side). Nagumo conquered Midway with still half his forces intact. And the Americans losing all carriers (they went for it, and lost everything). The only thing standing between the Japanese Navy and the American west coast is the big Pacific Ocean and a few American ships (no carriers).

 

If you are Nagumo, would you go for it? Can you invade mainland USA? It takes around 3-4 years to build a carrier from scratch. Now is the perfect time to strike before the full industrial might of America comes to bear. You hear too that they are trying to develop a bomb that will harness the power of the stars. If you are going to go for it, now is the perfect time! Mainland USA? Total victory or nothing? How would you do it?

 

-----------------

 

Let me fill in some details for the computation OC guys (I say that with affection ). It's one week after the first engagement and you compute that Nagumo lost half his invasion force (just cut it right in the middle, carriers, and support ships). Midway is 100% Japanese controlled. Nimitz's intercepting force is wiped out (completely). All other ships from Japan and the USA (not involved in the battle) is still in play.

Edited December 27, 2009 by skitz

[skitz]

Why is it that the Americans can't seem to win the war when they are fighting soldiers wearing only pajamas, the Viet Congs in their black pajamas and now the Afghanistans in their white pajamas?

It's called assymetric warfare. This has always been the problem of the USA. Their armed forces are designed to have tanks battle tanks, planes vs planes, ships vs. ships. Anyway, more or less that is the concept (do not mention that helicopters are designed to k*ll tanks -- I know, I am just explaining what is symetric wafare is). Americans do not know how to fight enemies willing to fight tanks with bows and arrows (I exagerate of course). They killed around 70 VCs for every American dead (estimates vary). But they lost that war. The VietCongs have nowhere else to go. That was the simple explanation. The VC strategy was simply to make the war as painful as possible. First one to blink loses. It's like the game I used to play with my brother, we'd interlock our fingers and squeeze, first to cry uncle loses. America lost because they couldn't stand the pain anymore. And they could always end it by simply coming home. The VCs were already home. They were fighting for their homeland.

 

Iraq, might be the same story. All the Americans have to do is go home and the pain will be over. But Afghanistan might be a little different. How long before another attack on US soil will be launched from Afghanistan should they leave that country for the Talibans? Afghanistan has NEVER been conquered. Many have tried. And all have failed. The Americans better make sure they are the first to trully subdue that country. They have no other choice.

 

-------------------

 

But here's the BIGGEST variable to this equation. The Afghans, like the Paletistinians and Israelis, measure wars in generations. Americans (and the West) measure wars in the terms of their presidents. Do the Americans have the stamina to outlast the Talibans?

Edited December 27, 2009 by skitz

[macbolan00]

Feel free to challenge this choice of mine but I think no superpower in the ancient world (pre-gunpowder era) could beat the Mongols. Be it Hannibal, Alexander the Great, Caesar, etc.

the mongols conquered basically a large swath of no-man's-land between the pacific and near east (plus some parts of europe.) the only real power centers they were able to conquer were china and kwaraizem (afghanistan/pakistan to persia.) they wer far from conquering the real power centers in europe. the most powerful center at the time of the mongols was constantinople. they were nowhere near to conquering that. in western europe, they reached poland and parts of germany. but the strongest army was farther to the west --france. across the channel was an even stronger field force.

[macbolan00]

But here's the BIGGEST variable to this equation. The Afghans, like the Paletistinians and Israelis, measure wars in generations. Americans (and the West) measure wars in the terms of their presidents. Do the Americans have the stamina to outlast the Talibans?

the fight between the US-western europe and soviet expansion took more than 70 years.

[skitz]

the fight between the US-western europe and soviet expansion took more than 70 years.

Yes. And that was PRETTY DARNED LONG (by their measure). And it was not a continuous open war. Just minor skirmishes and proxy wars punctuated once in a while by nuclear posturing. The American attention in particular is pretty short. They want results (within a president's term)... so they can start another war. Yes, they have been fighting since the American Revolution (vs. the Brits). But it is always one war, then next, next, next. Never one enemy for very long. No open war vs the Soviets (Russians) ever happened.

 

The Palestinians and Israelis have been at it since Moses. The Afghans (not reallty one people but a collective of tribes) have been fighting continuously since the British Empire. If they are not fighting a foreign power, they are fighting each other. Afghanistan is the Soviet Empire's Vietnam.

 

-----------------

 

BTW, I would really be interested with your opinion (and SmilingBandit's) on how the IJN can push the war to mainland USA had they won the Battle of Midway (with plenty to spare, as they had planned). Is it even possible? IMHO, it is not even possible. A logistical nightmare. Distance being the biggest obstacle. All the Japanese could ever hope for is to negotiate for peace from the position of strength. I'd get the IJN to posture an invasion of Hawai (not even attemt to haul the entire IJN to California), never actually doing it (too much burden to hold), then quickly negotiate a peace. Even if Nagumo had routed the Americans in Midway, the Americans simply can not be defeated in that theater of war. Unless of course, Nazi Germany can keep the Americans tied up in that other theater.

Edited December 29, 2009 by skitz

[macbolan00]

there's absolutely no way they can carry the mid-ocean battle all the way to hawaii, even if they had sunk the three american carriers. they simply didn't have enough fuel, spare planes and pilots. the amricans were busy constucting two modern battleships in time for guadalcanal. two fleet carriers were nearing completion, and the eastern shipyards were already gearing to roll out one escort carrier every 2 weeks. the US navy and army air corp can train at least 30 competent pilots every month.

 

so an attack at the mainland, hawaii or even australia is a long shot. to invade continental US, they will have to make a strategic withdrawal, stockpile on fueland muniations, and match the amercans in tersm of arms production. they will have to completely destroy the US' two-ocean fleet. and then, waiting for them on US soil is at least 20 army divisions and more than 1 million reservists willing to fight. tall order for any other country in the world at the time.

 

consider: the US, with its overwhelming productive and human advantage, waited till 1944 to really push towards japan and consider invasion (also, they were forcusing their war efforts on a much more dangerous germany.) before that, the US had to make sure production was rolling continuously, and that the greater part of japanese naval power was no longer a serious factor.