money Stock Market

[Batang hampas lupa]

17 hours ago, The Specialist said:

Not sure if everyone happen to see, my last post (decided to hide it). Since I don't want to scare anyone, also that is only a study/thesis that needs some confirmation from the market. But since this already started to unfold. Let me write a little about it.

That day, I noticed some weakness, on one prior leader name. To be specific, $MER. For some reason, I noticed that it was being distributed (at least from how the way I interpret it). I understand that it may be different from the others. 

I believe, I already written some articles or comments in the thread that stocks moves in cycles/groups. Whether it is on the upside/sideways/down. Of course, it won't be a leader if the move will not be started by it, and the other members of the group didn't follow. There are some outliers, but to be specific, the one I want to show is the group move. 

So let's now see, $MER (previous leader for my stand point for energy name)

- coming from it's base. 20% upside. (box in blue)

- then come april 12, 2022 ( I noticed a sell-off on huge volume). Then followed by continuous selling days (breaking supports). See attached

 

Now let's see other energy name like (AP, SPNEC, ACEN) on that same date forward. Attached screen print for reference.

Please bear mind, that this was a thesis. It's never my style to predict, but rather I only interpret what the price action is telling. Just to be clear, I never recommended anything whether it was a buy or a sell. All I want to say, at this point is, good luck on the energy name holders out there!

Great evening to all!

Sir the especialist ano ang insight mo kay emp? May chance ba ito na umakyat sa 20/ sh?

 

[lone23]

Red days

[The Specialist]

risk off markets for psei. My personal thoughts, the market is trying to price in the damage done to US markets few days ago.

What i'm doing lately was to keep my WL fresh, and just patiently waiting for a low risk entry and my setup. I'm all cash right now.

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by The Specialist

[The Specialist]

3 hours ago, Batang hampas lupa said:

Sir the especialist ano ang insight mo kay emp? May chance ba ito na umakyat sa 20/ sh?

 

Do you think i have a crystal ball to tell so, sir? hehehe. Binigay ko na nga ung catalyst e.

How about a twist, if i may ask you. Why do you think the price of $EMP will rise to 20/ish or more? What will invalidate the trade idea? What makes its price action different to the other names, that you think it will reach that price, at this point in time? Does risk, outweighs the reward?

In case you bought it, at what price level you think, that the trade is invalidated? And how much size should you buy in percentage of your port?

If you can answer those, there you go. You have a precise plan. Just follow it.

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by The Specialist

[juL1us]

Pina follow ko lng strategy dito since hindi naman talaga ko marunong mag analyze. 

https://dailypik.com/undervalued-stocks-in-the-philippines-latest-list/

[The Specialist]

out of over 300 names listed in the psei. Remaining uptrend names, now goes to 9. Bigay ko na yung isa, since given naman, $EMP is a part of those list. 

The rest is diving, as deep as the market would like it to go.

Edited April 27, 2022 by The Specialist

[The Specialist]

Alam ko nashare ko na to before dito, ung 50/80 rule. Konti nalang, down 50% na tong previously favored stock name na to.

Ulitin ko nalang ulet dito. Once a leadership move ended. There is a 50% chance, that it will go down 80% and there is an 80% chance, it will go down 50%.

Stock highlight for today is $ACEN. 44% down already from the top. At Naalala ko din ung ibang nagcomment na "oks lang yan bro, aangat din yan".  "Solid naman funda, tas magandang company". 

Ngaun ako naman ang magtatanong. If it is a good company or a stock to be bought, tingin nyo why its price not going up? Kelan kaya aangat? Kung hawak mo to, ok ka pren ba, if down ka na ng 20-44% on a stock? Sana di ka na-stress. 😅

Sa mga nalinawan sa pwedeng mangyari if trade/invest lang ng di nag-aaral at di marunong mag-manage ng risk. I do hope, you could learn something from the experienced. Then again, I am not a market top/bottom caller. This can either stop at 50% or pwede rin namang 80%. No one knows really.

Good luck! and just sharing stuff. Post not meant to harm anyone.

[Batang hampas lupa]

On 4/29/2022 at 6:36 PM, The Specialist said:

Alam ko nashare ko na to before dito, ung 50/80 rule. Konti nalang, down 50% na tong previously favored stock name na to.

Ulitin ko nalang ulet dito. Once a leadership move ended. There is a 50% chance, that it will go down 80% and there is an 80% chance, it will go down 50%.

Stock highlight for today is $ACEN. 44% down already from the top. At Naalala ko din ung ibang nagcomment na "oks lang yan bro, aangat din yan".  "Solid naman funda, tas magandang company". 

Ngaun ako naman ang magtatanong. If it is a good company or a stock to be bought, tingin nyo why its price not going up? Kelan kaya aangat? Kung hawak mo to, ok ka pren ba, if down ka na ng 20-44% on a stock? Sana di ka na-stress. 😅

Sa mga nalinawan sa pwedeng mangyari if trade/invest lang ng di nag-aaral at di marunong mag-manage ng risk. I do hope, you could learn something from the experienced. Then again, I am not a market top/bottom caller. This can either stop at 50% or pwede rin namang 80%. No one knows really.

Good luck! and just sharing stuff. Post not meant to harm anyone.

Sa tingin ko sir ba baba pa yan, because of property dividends by its parent AC...

[The Specialist]

On 4/27/2022 at 9:57 PM, The Specialist said:

out of over 300 names listed in the psei. Remaining uptrend names, now goes to 9. Bigay ko na yung isa, since given naman, $EMP is a part of those list. 

The rest is diving, as deep as the market would like it to go.

Just a quick update. Remaining uptrend names is down to 3. with the 2 (outliers names) are already extended from my point of view. And 1 is basing out. In short, I haven't seen any name that has a setup for me to do something. I got 1 outlier name, but I am just trailing this. One spike, I might sold half and trail remaining. This trade was just a low size trade. It was having a relative strength that is why I still hold it.

 

Few points, in a relatively weak market. There is nothing to be aggressive, if you want to try to buy a name (test buy) let say, 1-2 position, try observing it after your initial purchase, if it will work. If not I think you already know the answer, no need to buy another 1, since clearly your strategy is not working. I would suggest to use atleast 5% of your portfolio and employ a good risk management skills at all times.

Sa mga ipit naman, use the rally to sell the position or atleast reduce the position. That is the only way, to lessen the bleeding. If you think that it will go back to your purchase price quickly, your wrong, especially for those in a clear downtrending stock. 

 

For those in cash, just be patient and keep your list updated. I honestly think, that there is nothing to do at the moment in the PSEI. And those that aggressive at this point in time and fail to manage risk will be slaughtered.

 

[Fat&Furious]

Im 80% cash now. Any possible reco for stocks to study? Especially those that could be affected by the election results..

[K0RN - RETIR3D]

Lets see within the next few days, weeks and months on how the Market reacts to either a Marcos or Robredo Presidency. I think need ko na uli magcheck sa Investagrams. Hehe.

[FF]

J.P. Morgan drops PH to bottom of Asean investment preference list after May 9 polls

Read more: https://business.inquirer.net/347572/j-p-morgan-drops-ph-to-bottom-of-asean-investment-preference-list-after-may-9-polls#ixzz7SwZMtKSU
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Edited May 11, 2022 by FF

[FF]

Will move from local equity based UITF  and MFs   to US equities based UTFs and MFs. Asset preservation. I dont want to get caught in a sell off when it comes. Mauna na tayo comrades .

[The Specialist]

Few points to answer the above inquiry.

The election results is being price in by the market itself. To be specific, any event that is happening on the whole wide world or the country is being price in by the market.

Few tips for PSE: It is wise to know, what the incoming president (in this case BBM), will deeply focus on. Since, you will see some movement on that particular group or specific name. Here's an example, if BBM will focus on improving the internet services in the country. For sure, you will see price movement on the internet companies in the upside. Vice-versa, for those project that BBM will not prioritize or avoid (perhaps, a conflict to BBM) will also have a great impact. So meaning, that particular group or stock will fall.

If you look into history, Ex. Pduts in his time as a president, Ayala and MVP had a conflict with him for sometime. Guess what happen to Ayala stock and MVP stock. It falls hardly.

You can see it, through the chart. If you are just patient enough to look/validate what I am stating in here. 

RE: the news, that circulated in the soc med, after "BBM's partial results unofficial winner" may 10 news to be exact. Most of the guys/girls reading in here for quite sometime are already aware that it was a fake news. Since, the market has been underpressure/experiencing a sell-off, prior to the election. Same thing goes at the US markets (fed tightening/potential global recession). :D

As you can see, I have already posted before. That any information, news, catalyst, should be validated through price. If it is true or not. And not, just take it and believe it easily. The news doesn't really matter, it's the reaction to the news/catalyst/fundamentals matters most.

Here's how the US/PSEI markets looks like at the moment. So the people in here will have some visuals what I am talking about.

I do hope I share some clarity rather than fear.

Edited May 11, 2022 by The Specialist
added info

[The Specialist]

Meanwhile, Anyone might possibly think. A durog pala, US at PSEI. Lipat ko kaya sa crypto. 

Guess what, durog din at under pressure. Here's how it looks at the moment. 

Hopefully, people in this thread, will realize the main reason why from the start since I posted in here. That it's a must to study the markets before putting your hard earn money on it.

Those people who's ignorant, and merely gamblers (not knowing what their doing), will surely be punished in time.

Edited May 11, 2022 by The Specialist