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bRIX

[05] MEMBER III
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Posts posted by bRIX

  1. thanks again Dr Pepper for your valuable insights regarding this topic. :)

     

    i decided not to pull out my UITF.... well, not yet. good thing it's just excess cash that i can afford not to spend. :)

     

    here's a question: why does UITFs took a large dip in terms of it's NAVPU compared to Mutual Funds (e.g. Philequity) which seems to be gaining or at least able to maintain a steady NAVPS?

  2. i got this from a mailing list. just to make the discussion more interesting.... :lol:

     

    HI, I'm not really a finance person or something. But if anyone is interested, here's what I think.

     

    First, the trend of the UITF is going down. What's the point of holding on to your investment if the trend is going down? You are just making your floating loss bigger and harder to recover. The most logical move is to cut loss as soon as you see the trend. That way you confine your losses to a smaller smount (compared to if you hold on to it)and can easily re invest when you see an uptrend. The amount you have to recover (loss in previous trade) will be smaller thus giving you the chance to profit in later trades.

     

    Second, I don't think I will invest in bond funds again. Why? Unlike before when they are using the accrual method, the interests were credited to the fund when available thus creating a regular uptrend, now because of this "mark to market" system of pricing the NAVPU, trding in bond funds is like trading in stocks or worse like in futures (commodities). In fact it is even worse. In stocks, you can hold on to your worthless share papers but still receive dividends and know that if you hold on to an undervalued company, even if they close, you get the real value of the company. In bond funds, your worthless share paper is really worthless. Similar to trading in commodities, your money is what you have in your account or certificate. But at least in commodities, one can "hedge" or short sell when the trend is down. In this bond fund, you just rut.

     

    Who can win in UITF? I believe just the government, the banks and prrobably the big investors. The small investors might as well put their money in lotto. For them it is always 50-50 chance.

     

    Basically, in bond funds, if the interrest rate of bonds are going up the NAVPU will go down. This is because it is marked to market. If the fund is holding a fund with a 7% interst and the trend of the

    interst is up say 10%, those in the market for bonds will not buy said 7% bond for the same price. They will have to offer it at a "discount" or lower price and therefore the downtrend in NAVPU.

     

    But who is in charge of this interest rate? The government. Remeber they don't have to actually increase the rate, the investors need only to perceive that they will be increasing and it can affect the market already. Who knows more about interest rates going up or down? the Banks and probably the big investors who have the diligence to look into the investments of the funds they are buying.

     

    Think of this scenario. The government reduces the interest rates, so the NVPU starts going up. The banks, the big investors come in at once. The more the NAVPU increases because of the buyers appetite.

    Here we come the small investors shaking at the present uptrend out to have our own profit. So the government gives a press release that interest rates are going up or the banks aware that the government is accepting higher interest rates sees the trend at one, the big investors too aware of all the economic data are the first to unload at the peak price. The banks get their share, the big investors too,

    and the government very happy to buy back their bonds at a discount. And wham! The NAVPU takes a dive. The small investors scrambling to get out but too late - as always.

     

    Just remember even in UITF, just like in stocks and commodities, there are buyers and sellers. The burned money do not "disappear". They just change hands. For every investor crying themselves to

    sleep because of their losses, somewhere out there is another opening champagne bottles because of their winnings.

     

    Commodities can be manipulated, Stocks can have insider trading, but this bond fund UITF basically depends on one thing - interest rates- and who can and will control this interest rates?

     

    For me, it is like taking candy from little children.

     

    Of course I can be wrong.

  3. The same way compounding happens in an ordinary investment sir.

     

    The UITF invests in certain assets, for example lets say time deposits.

     

    When the TD matures, the interest earned plus the principal is reinvested again in some other instrument such as GS or corporate commercial papers.

     

    Likewise, the interest income of these other instruments are also reinvested.

     

    So compounding happens as a matter of course in a UITF.

     

    What differentiates the UITF from other investments is that market forces come into play in that the assets of the fund, aside from earning interest, may also gain in value due to its market price, or the price some other investor is willing to pay for the paper/instrument the UITF holds. The market price may go up or down, but combined with the interest income, on the whole the investment in your UITF has the potential to earn you more than simple interest alone.

     

    I hope this answered your question. If not, just let me know and I will try again.

     

    I understand now... thanks again sir. :)

     

    By the way... NAVPU went up today! I guess this is the correction you predicted last week. :)

  4. That is correct sir. You need to stay in UITF for about a year if you want to take advantage of your fund manager's expertise and resources. Remember, the prices change DAILY so you win some, you lose some day to day but remember in the long run, the power of time and compounding plus active management should give you a lot more than handling the investments yourself.

     

    Until you get out of the UITF by redemption, remember that any loss or gain is UNREALIZED.

     

    another question sir, how/where does compounding happen in UITF? thanks for your sharing your knowledge to noob investors like us. :)

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