The End of the American Century?

[JayZip]

Nokor does not have any beef with the Philippines so I should not be worried. Nokor's only concern is South Korea. They just love to scare the s@%t out of its southern brethren. The US has not made any military provocation in the region. A US carrier battle group's passing the the South China Sea is not exactly provocation. It is freedom of navigation.

Ok man if you say so. You know what im gonna stop here and decline to comment any further.

 

Thank you though for the enlightening conversation.

[haroots2]

There is no need to be wary about North Korea. North Korea and the Philippines have no common interests and are not in the proximity of each other.

 

But we were involved during the Korean War because of the Americans and it can happen in the future.

[haroots2]

Duterte has already made our foreign policy independent from the Americans.

 

True, but what comes after Duterte is still uncertain.

[camiar]

South Korea is a close ally and economic partner of the Philippines.

 

Regardless of shift in foreign policy distancing ourselves from the US, we are bound by our friendship with South Korea and our obligation to the UN to help them militarily if North Korea invades the South.

Edited April 12, 2017 by camiar

[camiar]

Learning from history, the North can only last a few weeks if they invade the South without the support of China. North Korea cannot sustain a protracted war against South Korea and it allies.

 

North Korea knows they'll be committing suicide if they attack first. The USA, on the other hand is wary that in case North Korea actually decides to commit suicide, they are likely to do it with a bang by attacking mainland US with its homegrown nuclear ICBMs.

[JayZip]

There is no need to be wary about North Korea. North Korea and the Philippines have no common interests and are not in the proximity of each other.

 

Yeah sure, your call man.

 

Camiar's response hit the spot. At least that makes sense while I probably did not.

[JayZip]

Huh? What happened to "stopping here and decline to comment"?

 

Did you post because he gave a contradictory opinion to mine? Naghahanap ka ng kakampi?

 

But just for the heck of it, I will give my take. First of all, the reality is we are hard pressed to guard the Spratlys with our outdated military hardware and technology. If we are hard pressed to defend even our own territory, what more joining a theoretical war which would not really benefit us? Moreover, the AFP is having its hands full against domestic threats so the Philippines first before anyone. Secondly, we don't have an MDT with the Sokors and we are not a super power which could police the region. Lastly and most importantly, we are having good relations with China and Duterte has already declared an independent foreign policy which is not contingent on the US. You would not really want to rock the boat and piss off China which is helping us economically. If it came down to it, Duterte will not involve the Philippines in a peninsular war because we are currently having good relations with China and are an old ally of the US. Put succinctly, we will remain neutral.

Last na talaga and off topic hahahha baka ma kick ako mg admin.

 

Di ako naghahanap ng kakampi. Napagod na lang ako sumagot at mag explain lol

 

Honestly I regret ever expressing my opinions here.

[camiar]

Moreover, we are under no obligation to the UN to join a war if they pass a resolution to declare war or invade a certain country. If we are gonna join a war, it has to be voluntary. Besides, the road to a declaration of war or invasion of a country will have to go through the UN Security Council of which China is a permanent member. A UN resolution to declare war or invade North Korea will get shut down because under UN rules, one dissenting vote from a security council member will nullify the resolution. China has the privilege of "veto" power since it is a permanent member of the security council and because China is the only ally of Nokor in the outside world, it will definitely veto a "declaration of war" resolution on North Korea.

Regarding Philippine obligation to the UN, we are signatory to the United Nations Charter, which obliges us to support the UN Peacekeeping program. It includes sending, if asked by UN, military expeditionary forces under UN military command to areas with armed conflicts to protect a member country from aggression or invasion.

 

If North Korea initiates the aggression and invades South, China cannot veto UN's call to arms in aid of South Korea.

 

Anyway, North's aggressive action vs the South is against the best interest of China. China needs a pro-Chinese North Korea as buffer zone along its border with Korea. The North cannot sustain its military action against the South without Chinese support, and in the face of a US-led allied forces counter-attack, North will break down and will be pushed back all the way north to the Chinese border. China will then have the unsavory choice of assisting the North and go to war against US & its allies or abandon North Korea and lose its buffer zone.

 

It is up to China to keep North Korea in check - at least until a non-aligned unified Korea emerges.

Edited April 13, 2017 by camiar

[camiar]

In the event of an all-out peninsular war, the North will surely be annihilated but South will have the bigger losses as the South is home to big industries and businesses, not to mention loss of lives. North Korea loves to push its weight around and scare the South but as for going to the brink, I don't think Kim Jong Un is suicidal.

The only beneficiary to an armed conflict today in Korea is the USA.

 

If all-out war erupts, they can finally take down the North Korean leadership, destroy the North Korean military threat to the US mainland, and control the entire Korean peninsula.

 

China, on the other hand will lose its security buffer zone and end-up with a pro-US unified Korea at its southern border. What they would have wanted is a non-aligned, prosperous, friendly, and unified Korea that does not pose a threat to them.

[camiar]

You are assuming China will be influenced by other countries. I don't think so. China has an independent foreign policy and won't support a war because a majority of those in the security council voted to declare war on North Korea.

 

There was an issue recently regarding the alleged Syrian government use of chemical weapons. When the UN Security Council voted on the matter, Russia vetoed the resolution to condemn Syria on the chemical weapons attack. Hence, the resolution did not pass. It does not follow that all the members of the security council will acquiesce on a certain issue if there is a majority who voted for it. If an issue of greater magnitude like an invasion of North Korea will be voted on, China will definitely veto this. Russia and China are superpowers and they don't need to be bullied or influenced to come up with their own opinion on the matter.

You are referring to internal armed conflicts among political groups within a country.

 

I am talking about one country invading another.

[filibustero]

Once country A commits an act of aggression against country B, country B and its allies are within their sovereign rights to exercise individual and collective self-defense against country A. No UNSC resolution needed. The difference with respect to the chemical attack in Syria is that it was [allegedly] committed by the Syrian government against its own people. There was no inter-state aggression. Just like with most situations where States are faced with the situation of whether or not to exercise humanitarian intervention, the UNSC usually ends up with an impasse and some States just exercise unilateral action. Trumps 49 tomahawks in Syria is one example; NATO's actions in Kosovo is another. And even if such States exercise unilateral action, most other States support them and the vetoing countries (China or Russia) don't do anything about it afterwards. If North Korea invades South Korea, you can be sure the US will swoop in and attack North Korea. The only question there is whether China will come to North Korea's aid. States, no matter how big, avoid armed conflict with other bigger States. NATO didn't do anything when Russia invaded Georgia or when Russia annexed a portion of Ukraine. Russia could only criticize Trump when it rained missiles in Syria and pulled out its forces in that Syrian airbase precisely to avoid being pushed in a situation where they would have to actually respond militarily. The big bad wolves love to huff and puff, but we're still waiting for the house to really come down. We just have to settle for their proxy wars where small States take the beating.

[camiar]

The context of my post is the vetoing powers of permanent members of the UN Security Council.

Once a rouge member has been declared by the UN to be in violation of the UN Charter when it invaded another member nation, actions against it by the UN cannot be vetoed, otherwise, it will create a "constitutional crisis", in which the member exercising its veto can be subjected to expulsion from the UN by the General Assembly, which of course tantamount to dissolving the UN or declaring a World War.

Edited April 13, 2017 by camiar

[camiar]

 

North Korea is way too far from the US mainland. Furthermore, I don't think it has ICBM capability.

 

That's your opinion.

 

From the defense articles that I read, the USA is taking it seriously.

 

North Korea is within 2 years of coming up with an effective ICBM that can reach mainland US.

 

They are not waiting idly to allow that to happen, especially since North Korea doesn't really have much to lose other than their own pathetic lives if they decided to engage the US in a nuclear war.

[2WarningPoints]

As far as the Bible prophecy is concern this could be the case, USA is not a player on the end time scene...

Because Israel is an ally of USA, I believe USA will be silent or not going to be a Super power anymore to help Israel in the coming war... God will deal with the Enemy of Isreal by him self... and he will show the world that he is God...

[camiar]

Where did you get the idea that actions against a rogue member of the UN cannot be vetoed? Resolutions involving war passes through this council, hence, the actions to be taken by the UN come from the Security Council.

I'm sure you will eventually read the UN Charter and understand what I mean.