money Stock Market

[francis_0170]

15 hours ago, ichiromiyata98 said:

Realities of trading: Not all are wins. Here's a sample, where I cut a trade, just now.

 

 

Agree sir. Ako nga, tingin ko mas marami pa number losses ko compared sa wins. Pero halos break even lang dahil sa naging profit.

 

Any thoughts on possible scenario ng upcoming election sa stocks? Historically, baba daw before ng election to protect investors or kung feel nila yung susunod na president?

IPO of bank of commerce? Thanks in advance!

[The Specialist]

11 hours ago, francis_0170 said:

Agree sir. Ako nga, tingin ko mas marami pa number losses ko compared sa wins. Pero halos break even lang dahil sa naging profit.

 

Any thoughts on possible scenario ng upcoming election sa stocks? Historically, baba daw before ng election to protect investors or kung feel nila yung susunod na president?

IPO of bank of commerce? Thanks in advance!

Please see answers on bullets below:

- Losses is a function of your expected gain. The key is, you must try your best to limit your losses to atleast 8-10% max. Best is below -5%. So why this number? Here is the table, that not all understand. As you can see, when losses hit 10%, it became much harder to recover and so on when it balloons. In trading or investing, the holy grail is risk management. Risk first, profit next. Meaning the 1st job is to limit risk, then when the odds is in your favor. get some profit that is multiple of what you have risked. 

- It would be volatile, thats for sure. No one can predict it, gagalaw at gagalaw yan either up, down or sideways. And i'll explained it in a very simple thought. Kaya volatile, kc pinaprice in ng market kung sino ung possible manalo. Maswerte yung kapanalig or if pabor or leaning yung goal nung mananalong president sa business, kasi mabibiyayaan yun. Why? kapanalig nga e. It means, business would be smooth in the years to come. Kaya aangat ung stock nila. 

Now for "Historically, baba daw before ng election to protect investors or kung feel nila yung susunod na president?". - Have you verified this through charts and back tracking events?

To tell you the truth, "protecting the investors thing" is just a merely sugar coating. Example, yung mga naipit sa $CAL, AR, at sa iba may nagawa ba sila? Wala. Miski PSEI, walang nagawa diba? So it is a myth. That is why, managing risk should always be there in the 1st place when a trade is place. Protecting your capital is not their job. It's yours! And in case the fund is managed by a fund manager, its the fund manager's job! 

A much more wise qualifier on choosing would be.

- historically, ano ba ung umaangat pag election? What names and why? so study and observed.

- Ano ba ung mga liquid name? Focus on the individual stocks that is in uptrends

- Or if volatility is too much for you, or uncertainty, it is best to just be on the sidelines. Di naman nauubos opportunity sa markets e. Antayin mo lang ung gumanda, and get the next possible move. Mas simple.

 

For IPO bank of commerce. For me it would be a pass. 1st of all i dont trade IPO stocks on their 1st day of trading. since risk reward is 1:1. I only trade a stock, if risk is small and reward is a multiple of my risk. So patience for me. Protecting capital is my number one priority, sa madaling sabi.

Next reason, Fed raising high interest rates. Look at my previous post re: banks. Open the chart, and perhaps see, from that date forward what happens with the banks. High interest rates = bad for the banks. So im not touching it. Also, market is a little bit choppy nowadays. Im a little bit cautious right now.

With regards, to what i mentioned. Take it with a grain of salt. It doesnt mean that I am not touching the IPO stock or any stock i mentioned, that it wouldnt go up. Think in probabilities please. Also, I am not God. hahaha! What I am merely doing is gathering evidence from fundamentals/technicals/risk and judging it base on my system if it is a go or pass. Hopefully, my answer gave some clarity.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by The Specialist

[The Specialist]

My peace of advice. Buy the books i mentioned and study it carefully. From there, you will understand where I'm coming from. That is, if you are really serious about making money in the stock market. 

Di sumikat ung mga tao na yun for nothing at all. It's a results based why they became famous. And they haven't just done it once, their very consistent. Surely, after you read those books, you will be enlighten of the myths and facts about the market.

So what's the benefits of reading their works:

- you will get to know how the market really works.

- you will know how they made their money "step by step". 

- you will avoid huge drawdowns "since they already mentioned in the books what they have learned from those and how to overcome it".

- you will know, how to manage your risk, stock position from start to finished.

- other external factors that you should really focus on. And neglect the other nuances, that is not really needed.

- you will know how to pick a good stock, and avoid a bad stock.

- you will know when to act, and when not to act.

These are some of the things you will learn. 

Edited March 12, 2022 by ichiromiyata98

[The Specialist]

15 hours ago, francis_0170 said:

Agree sir. Ako nga, tingin ko mas marami pa number losses ko compared sa wins. Pero halos break even lang dahil sa naging profit.

 

Any thoughts on possible scenario ng upcoming election sa stocks? Historically, baba daw before ng election to protect investors or kung feel nila yung susunod na president?

IPO of bank of commerce? Thanks in advance!

I'll point you to the right way of questioning sir.

- Which stock do you think, will greatly benefit on the election? 

- Then you check the chart of those trade ideas. Are they in uptrend, downtrend or sideways?

- Are those names liquid to start off. and being accumulated or being distributed.

Nasabe ko na yung technique na yun before. "Tag as thinking ahead of the norms". Kung itatrack mo kasi, at ilalagay mo sa isip mo na babagsak. Sa tingin mo, makukuha mo ung paparating na opportunity? The answer is no. Because you are just scaring yourself.

 

So Let's try to reverse that idea. Since ito naman ung may silbi. Of all the 300 stock names. Which do you think will greatly benefit from it? Pag ganto yung thinking. Diba, on the positive note and higher chances for you to look deeply kung sino ung outlier from the rest. To simply put, if your idea. Is not validated with the charts, meaning di positive ung nakikita mo, edi pass. Then move to the next stock. Until you finished, that screening process.

Ngaun, pano kung wala kang makita na. Positive via fundamentals/technicals and walang catalyst? The answer is, do not trade. Kasi wala naman kelangan gawen.

Sana mas napadali ko ung dapat na thought process.

 

Bibigyan kita ng simple scenario.

Nung christmas or end of year. Which do you think benefit from it aside from the leader names, acex, ubp and emp?.

The answer is banks. Why? its because, every end of year. History shows, great demand for ofw remittances, which isa sa bumubuhay sa pinas for revenue's. Diba umangat sila? So parang ganun yung ibig kung sabihin. Di kelangan gawing kumplikado.

[The Specialist]

Now all cash on PSEI. Last trades where $ICT, small loss. Reason for buying is, leader name for shipping + Ecommerce the only business not that affected (shipping).

Then scratched for $GMA7, sold at breakeven point. It is my bet for the election day, btw. Here's why, uptrending chart + catalyst, politicians use it for debates and commercials. 

RE: position sizing/Risk management. Both trades are probes.  0.5% Var for each trade.

Both were sold. Trade invalidated, as it hits my cut points (technicals use for selling). I hope you could get something from the idea. 

Edited March 14, 2022 by The Specialist

[Batang hampas lupa]

58 minutes ago, The Specialist said:

Now all cash on PSEI. Last trades where $ICT, small loss. Reason for buying is, leader name for shipping + Ecommerce the only business not that affected (shipping).

Then scratched for $GMA7, sold at breakeven point. It is my bet for the election day, btw. Here's why, uptrending chart + catalyst, politicians use it for debates and commercials. 

RE: position sizing/Risk management. Both trades are probes.  0.5% Var for each trade.

Both were sold. Trade invalidated, as it hits my cut points (technicals use for selling). I hope you could get something from the idea. 

Sir ano ang insight mo kay urc bakit bumababa siya. 

[The Specialist]

41 minutes ago, Batang hampas lupa said:

Sir ano ang insight mo kay urc bakit bumababa siya. 

I dont have any info about it, sorry. This was a clear downtrending stock, and i dont trade those kinds even if this was fundamentally sound, or a good company. Never, pumapasok sa qualifier ko ito.

 

 

Edited March 14, 2022 by The Specialist

[The Specialist]

On 2/21/2022 at 2:18 PM, The Specialist said:

So this already happened today. $SPNEC crashed on volume.

Feedback: Other names on the group did hold.

Now for $SPNEC, Either of the 3 will happen next. 

1. Continuous move on the downside. Possibly, regained 20MA, then plummets fast down, or at the open tom crash slowly until sellers were done to sell what they have.

2. Regain the 20MA, then holds, setup. Then rally to upside (then sell off once again).

3. Regain 20MA, then holds, setup, then rally to the upside and break the ATH level (will take some time, lowest probability for now).

One thing is for sure. There are a lot of traders wanna be who bought few weeks ago (humabol), who didnt cut their losses. Who are now promoted to being an investor. Guess what, they are now holding a huge loss.

The one still in profit is the buyers who bought at IPO day, and some that have a lower average.

-Lesson: It is okay to bet, and risk small. This was a probability game after all. But know when you are wrong and you should accept(selling at a loss, the 1st loss is always good than the next).

 

So scenario 1 did happen this time for $SPNEC.

Look below:

 

[The Specialist]

Soon, those heavily invested at the market at this point. Will realize, my message before. That it is a must, to study how the market really works through its cycles.

"There is a time for making money, and there is a time to go and went fishing".  

Why? Because, they will have huge loss on their portfolio.

Sun is out. I am trying to refresh and relax with the breeze of the sea. Might opt to went fishing later. Good day! 

[soen]

all are going down down down

[Batang hampas lupa]

PSE close at GREEN candle...

Tapos naba ang panic selling...

 

[The Specialist]

3 hours ago, Batang hampas lupa said:

PSE close at GREEN candle...

Tapos naba ang panic selling...

 

Just finished screening. For me, hindi pa, it needs time to repair the damage. Lagi naman ganun yan. But it would be a good habit, to have an open mind to look for names that is holding the drop or recovered fast. Gaya ngaun, nakita ko na ung mga yun. So what I'll gonna do, is to monitor those names.

For URC, it recovers today. To me what happens in here is the "rubber band" effect. Dalawa yun, on the upside and on the downside. 

Ex. $NIKL, price runs up so fast in few days only (extended). So ung naging drop nya is mabilis rin. Common term nila dito is, escalator up, elevator down. 

Then, if you noticed. yung mga gumalaw end of week last week is yung mga low priced stock. Simple reason is, magaan at low price. So madali pagalawin. Nilalaro lang yung mga yun, If one will observed the move. Normally its a few days rally then bubuhusan na. They term it the one hit wonder.

So on the downside example naman like $URC, market might be seeing na sagad na on the downside. So ito ung capitualization play (running). Rubberband effect on the downside. So meaning, nagrarally pa taas, then since maraming sellers sa taas. Bubuhusan after din. 

I hope naexplained ko ng maayos. If you want a video explanation, look for COL in youtube, then ung capitualization. Dun inexplain nila edmund and other traders ung opportunity na cinacapture nila. 

Ako di ako after sa capitualization play. Dun ako sa new leader name na mag-eemerge, mas madali kasi un. Yoko pahirapan ung sarili ko dito. So up to the people yun, if go sila or not.

 

[Batang hampas lupa]

On 3/15/2022 at 10:42 AM, The Specialist said:

So scenario 1 did happen this time for $SPNEC.

Look below:

 

Ang ganda ng bounce ni spnec...

Congrats po sa mga nakabili sa 1.50 kahapon....

[jeff016]

Mga boss may pagasa pa ba si DITO

[Batang hampas lupa]

On 3/20/2022 at 3:10 PM, jeff016 said:

Mga boss may pagasa pa ba si DITO

Sir ano po average ninyo kay dito?