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6th MTC Fantasy NBA


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NBA Skinny: Looking Back, Forward

 

By Matt Buser

 

Best of luck to those of you in leagues with down-to-the-wire finishes, as standings aren't quite final, but speculation and conjecture as to who to add and drop is of no help to you now. Another year is just about to be put in the archives. There have been highs, from Chris Paul's explosion onto the scene to Kobe Bryant's explosion for 81 points; and there have been lows, from Amare Stoudemire's struggles to return from his knee injury to fantasy owners' struggles adapting to the new inactive list. All in all, however, it has been another exciting fantasy basketball season – this week's Skinny hands out some awards for the season that was and starts to look ahead to the offseason.

 

 

Free agency and the NBA draft are sure to affect the fantasy fortunes of many players this offseason. This season, it was players like Joe Johnson and Raja Bell who benefited most from a change of scenery, while Stromile Swift and Damon Jones struggled in their new digs. The biggest names set to hit free agency this offseason include Peja Stojakovic, Al Harrington, Jason Terry, Ben Wallace, Mike James, Chris Wilcox, Bonzi Wells, Sam Cassell, Flip Murray, Joel Przybilla, and Marcus Banks.

 

Last year's draft produced a gem in Paul but, as is usually the case, only a handful of fantasy contributors overall. Players like Joakim Noah, Tyrus Thomas, LaMarcus Aldridge, Adam Morrison, Rudy Gay, Brandon Roy, and J.J. Redick could all be on fantasy draft boards next season. The challenge, however, will be separating the Pauls and Channing Fryes from the Deron Williams and Sean Mays once rosters are set.

 

Hopefully you enjoyed some success this season but, whether you did or not, what's most important is that you had some fun and can use lessons learned to your benefit when games begin again next fantasy season.

 

MARKET MOVERS: Charting player values

 

UP:

Josh Smith (GF, Atlanta) – Smith started the season slow but has come on like gangbusters since the All-Star break. His post-break numbers are 15.0 points, 1.1 threes, 7.9 boards, 4.1 assists, 3.2 blocks, and 0.9 steals in 30 games. His percentages still need some help, but his new-found penchant for shooting the three has fantasy owners salivating and already thinking about where they should take him next year. With such a strong close, at this point it's difficult to imagine him making it past most draft's third rounds.

 

Carlos Boozer (FC, Utah) – Who would have thought that, after all Boozer put fantasy owners through early in the season, they'd be willing to forgive and forget? Well, 16.2 points on 55 percent shooting, 8.7 boards, and center-eligibility has a way of making the fantasy enthusiast quite forgiving. If Utah elects to keep Boozer at center and Mehmet Okur at power forward next season, Boozer instantly becomes one of the better fantasy centers in the game.

 

Chris Wilcox (FC, Seattle) – Wilcox finally was able to escape Elton Brand's shadow when he was dealt to the Sonics in mid-season. In 21 games as a starter, he's averaged 15.1 points on 59 percent shooting and 9.1 boards. He is a restricted free agent this offseason, and whether he stays with the Sonics or not, he will be in a starting lineup next season and be a strong fantasy player.

 

Raymond Felton (G, Charlotte) – Felton's overall line for the season isn't overwhelming due to the fact that he came off of the bench 26 times during the season's early going. He's been fantastic since being inserted in the starting lineup, however. In 52 starts, he's averaged 14.8 points, 1.4 threes, 6.4 assists, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.4 steals – keep in mind that most of those starts have come at shooting guard due to the presence of Brevin Knight. In 21 games in March and April, while the Bobcats have made more of a concerted effort to let Felton play the point, his averages have been 17.2 points, 2.1 threes, 7.5 assists, 3.5 boards, and 1.2 steals.

 

Darko Milicic (FC, Orlando) – Darko could be a real X-factor next season. He's shown fantasy potential in conservative minutes so far in Orlando, averaging 8.0 points on 53 percent shooting, 4.4 boards, and 2.2 blocks in 21 minutes per game, and his role is likely to expand next season playing along-side Dwight Howard. Keep this in mind – Milicic is almost six months younger than Howard, and will be entering his fourth NBA season at the tender age of 21.

 

Andres Nocioni (SF, Chicago) – Nocioni's late-season surge has had him in a steady progression up the player rankings. Over the past 21 games (including 12 starts) he's averaged 17.0 points, 1.2 threes, 8.7 boards, 0.7 steals, and 0.7 blocks. The Bulls will have lots of cap room this offseason, and the roster will likely be in flux. Keep an eye on the team's transactions – if Nocioni is put in a position to be a full-time starter, he will flourish.

 

Jameer Nelson (PG, Orlando) – With Steve Francis no longer in the picture, next year should be the first season where Nelson is a legitimate fantasy point guard from start to finish. For some indication as to how he should produce, look no further than his averages since returning from a foot injury in early March – he's posted 16.3 points on 51 percent shooting, 1.1 threes, 5.7 assists, 2.9 boards, and 1.0 steals in 23 games.

 

Ike Diogu (FC, Golden State) – Diogu has been on a nice run to end the season. He's scored in double figures in six of the past eight games, averaging 12.8 points on 59 percent shooting, 6.4 boards, and 0.9 blocks in 23 minutes of playing time. He has also made 86 percent of 42 free throws during those games. He's been a fan favorite in Oakland since the get-go, and should see an expanded role on the Warriors and fantasy rosters next season.

 

Hedo Turkoglu (GF, Orlando) – Being Grant Hill's injury replacement guarantees that Turkoglu gets plenty of time to hone his game. That has been particularly evident in his career year this season – in 58 starts, he's averaged 15.9 points, 1.5 steals, 4.5 boards, and 2.9 assists, and made 86 percent of his free throws. Of course, Grant Hill's status is the wild-card for Hedo, but he has proven that he is a legit fantasy play period. It's worth noting that next season will mercifully be the final year of Hill's current contract.

 

DOWN:

Yao Ming (C, Houston) – Yao makes this list despite having the best statistical season of his career, given the nature of his latest injury. While his surgery on Friday for his broken foot was considered successful, he still has a very long road to complete recovery, and it could be fraught with peril. Rockets coach Jeff Van Gundy is concerned, given that Yao has had left ankle surgery, an infection in his left big toe that required surgery, and now has had a second break of his left foot (he also broke it at age 19). Van Gundy added that foot problems with NBA big men typically turn out to be problematic. That said, Yao is expected to be ready for training camp next season – the less the term problematic is used when talking about Yao between now and then, the better it will be for his draft position next year.

 

Kenyon Martin (PF, Denver) – It's been an absolute nightmare for Martin's fantasy owners this season. He's played in just 55 games thanks to left knee tendonitis, and the most he played consecutively was all of 11 games. He has been perpetually day-to-day while averaging career lows in just about everything. Fantasy owners are often willing to take risks, but there will need to be a lot of glowing reports out of Denver for even the most daring fantasy owner to invest anything in Martin come next season.

 

Zach Randolph (PF, Portland) – The past two seasons have removed much of the fantasy luster Randolph accumulated during his breakout 2003-04 campaign. His scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage – the only areas where he can be counted on in fantasy – have all declined in both seasons since, and the right knee on which he had microfracture surgery on last April has given him issues for much of this season. And then there is the matter of his fine and suspension from the team for insubordinate and detrimental conduct, which came as a result of what Blazers GM John Nash called "a series of separate actions." Limited contributions to start plus a bad attitude plus a bad knee usually equal a fantasy dud.

Edited by ayasadai
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ALL-FANTASY TEAM

 

POINT GUARD

1st Chair: Gilbert Arenas

2nd Chair: Dwyane Wade

 

Skinny: Arenas has been the best of a top-heavy group of point guards. He is averaging a career-high 29.3 points per game on 45 percent shooting, 2.5 threes, 6.1 assists, and 2.0 steals while making 82 percent of 9.9 free throws per game. His only downside is that he is leading the league in turnovers. Wade's lack of a three-point shot is the only thing keeping him from the top spot.

 

SHOOTING GUARD

1st Chair: Kobe Bryant

2nd Chair: Ray Allen

 

Skinny: Bryant is tops in the league at 35.4 points per game, has made 85 percent of 10.3 free throws per game, and has averages of 2.2 threes, 5.3 boards, 4.5 assists, and 1.8 steals. While his rebounds and assists declined from last season, so did his turnovers. Allen single-handedly pushed fantasy owners to the top in three-point (3.4 per game) and free-throw categories (91 percent) while averaging a career-high 25.0 points per game.

 

SMALL FORWARD

1st Chair: LeBron James

2nd Chair: Paul Pierce

 

Skinny: James' fantasy line speaks for itself, with averages of 31.4 points on 48 percent shooting, 1.6 threes, 7.0 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and 0.8 blocks. How much better will he be next season? The only flaw in his fantasy game is his free-throw shooting, especially given the volume of shots that he takes. Pierce has put together his best overall fantasy season without a lot of fanfare.

 

POWER FORWARD

1st Chair: Shawn Marion

2nd Chair: Elton Brand

 

Skinny: It's hard to believe that it's possible, but Marion actually improved this season, posting the best fantasy numbers of his career. He's averaging career-highs in points (21.7), field goal percentage (52 percent), rebounds (11.9), and blocks (1.7), to go along with 1.2 threes, 2.0 steals, 82 percent free-throw shooting, and only 1.5 turnovers. Brand and Kevin Garnett posted equally impressive seasons, but KG loses out to Brand given the fact that he's missed the most important weeks of the season.

 

CENTER

1st Chair: Rasheed Wallace

2nd Chair: Chris Bosh

 

Skinny: While it's true that Wallace's shooting percentages leave much to be desired, his 15.2 points, 2.0 threes, 6.9 boards, 1.6 blocks, and 1.0 steals are a godsend at the Center position. His durability, particularly given the plethora of centers that missed games this year, also shouldn't be underestimated. Bosh made serious strides this season on offense, but the digression of his defensive numbers and his untimely injury make him the runner-up.

 

ROOKIE

1st Chair: Chris Paul

2nd Chair: Charlie Villanueva

 

Skinny: Surprise, surprise – Paul was one of the top fantasy players in the game, let alone just among rookies. He has posted averages of 16.3 points, 7.9 assists, 5.2 boards, 2.2 steals, and 85 percent free-throw shooting. Paul will be drafted among the top 20 players next season. Villanueva actually was a bit of a surprise. Despite some inconsistency, he emerged as an across-the-board contributor and a fantasy steal.

 

BUST

1st Chair: Tracy McGrady

2nd Chair: Stephon Marbury

 

Skinny: McGrady was a top 10 pick as usual this season, but he dealt with knee issues early and back pain often throughout a hugely disappointing season. He spent six separate instances on the inactive list and played a total of 47 games, with rebounds being the only stat of the nine default categories where his numbers did not take a dip from last season. Marbury's statistics are arguably his worst as a pro, and he's played in just 60 games.

 

BREAKOUT

1st Chair: Boris Diaw

2nd Chair: David West

 

Skinny: Diaw has become the most versatile player in fantasy basketball, lacking only point-guard eligibility. He has also put together one of the most balanced stat lines in the game, with averages of 13.4 points on 53 percent shooting, 6.9 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.1 blocks, and 0.7 steals. While he won't be a secret next season, it remains to be seen how the return of Amare Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas affect his role and his nightly line. West has been fantastic in his first season as a starter, and 17.1 points, 7.4 boards, and solid percentages from a free agent claim go a long ways towards a fantasy crown.

 

 

LINK

Edited by ayasadai
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congrats RIP... though i haven't seen the scores yet, by my rough estimate, you've already won... thanks to diop stepping up (of all people) with 5 steals and 3 blocks, and gerald wallace doing his thing off the bench w/ 3 stls and 2 blocks...

 

...you deserve it bro... congratulations!!!

 

 

 

...here's to a way more successful season 2 :cool:

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congrats sa champion...

 

as of this post... 'di ko pa chine-check kung nakuha ko 'yung korona sa league namin... halos himatayin ako sa production ni redd kahapon at kamuntikan nang ma-overtake 'yung team ko...

 

i'm hoping to have a team here in the next season...

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