kidpoker

You mean an agricultural base that's heavily dependent on oil and on the Ogallala aquifer, where levels have dropped considerably, and all part of a JIT system which only has leeway for only two weeks' worth of food and medicine for various towns and cities. And that's part of a country with banks exposed to over $370 trillion in shadow derivatives, government debt as high as $200 trillion if one considers future liabilities, hedge managers and members of the financial elite profiting readily while banks and other financial institutions see stock values dip and layoffs increase, and the only solution to increasing debt in an economy where 70 pct of "growth" is based on consumer spending is to increase debt.

 

Meanwhile, we may be looking at the effects of only a fraction of a greater problem,

 

"Derivatives: The $600 Trillion Time Bomb That's Set to Explode"

 

 

http://moneymorning....set-to-explode/

 

part of a quadrillion-dollar global derivatives, a fraction of which as you pointed out led to the previous crash. Now, the IMF, the WB, and others are warning of a global meltdown that will be even worse than the 2008 crash. Meanwhile, various indicators show that that this will probably not just the end of the "American century":

 

http://www.voxeu.org...php?q=node/3421

 

Thus, Marxists aren't the only one issuing such warnings and revealing implicitly major flaws in a JIT global capitalist system.

 

And we're just talking about credit. Behind that is an even graver problem involving resource shortages:

 

http://www.economist...and-consumption

 

which needs more "easy oil" to maintain economic growth.

The US has it's own oil.

You're just a doomsday prophet.

That's just the tip of the iceberg. U.S. banks are exposed to over $370 trillion in unregulated derivatives. On top of that, we're looking at almost $60 trillion in total debt, over $200 trillion if you include future government liabilities. The country, together with other First World countries, needs a JIT system to sustain 7-10 days' supply of food and medicine, amidst an economy that has gone through four decades of trade deficits, 70 pct of economic activity based on consumer spending, and something like 5 pct of the world's economy requiring up to a quarter of world oil production needed to power up, among other things, more than a third of the world's passenger vehicles.

 

From Roubini to Reich, various economists, several of them who accurately predicted the 2008 crash even as members of the finance industry brushed off such warnings by claiming that the economy is "too big to fail," now argue that there has been no recovery and there there will be no recovery for the U.S. save major cuts in borrowing and spending across the board. And that will mean the demise of a middle class lifestyle and the lost of a "First World" status, if not the end of an "American Century." Even the Goldman Sachs report on BRIC hints at that.

 

Given that, I'd say that the advice given at the end of your message should apply to you.

 

 

 

You haven't seen the agricultural base of America like I did. A Boeing 747 can fly at over 600 miles/hour for 2 hours and it would even reach the end the farm lands in several states. The United States is the top farm products exporter in the world. If the United States gets hungry, the whole world gets hungry.

Derivatives based on toxic assets have already been flushed since the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the previous insolvability of American Insurance Group. The top derivatives market trading is in the United States.

I live in America. No worries.

Looking at the choice of your readings, you are a Marxist just waiting for the capitalist economies to fail.

This gives a more "macro" view of the problem:

 

"When the US defaulted: 40 years since the collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement"

 

http://www.wsws.org/.../pers-a15.shtml

You make me laugh. Marxists wrote that article. Do you know the theory of Karl Marx?

Hmm....that was what was said of the Roman Empire, the British Empire and the German Reich.

Definitely not in your lifetime.

how can a country with the following collapse? i doubt it...

 

1. has the most advance tech and arms

2. controls oil in the middle east and has a large untapped deposit within their boundaries

3. has the largest virgin forest reserve

4. has the biggest gold reserve

5. prints the international currency

6. has the biggest international banks

7. one of the financers of the world bank

i think doomsayers are being influenced by the full moon.

At least, they have a century of dominance.....their decline is more on massive liberal entitlements than being fiscally responsible.

 

They (US gov't) recently added 4 trillion dollars in deficit under the Obama administration, who can recover from that?

US government can just cut down on expenditures to fix it.

it's critics have a point, the ship is really not enough and it's nearly compared to nothing.

i doubt it is nothing. it is a deterrence for transgressors (it can sink other ships) and it is a good start for naval modernization.

Bok, don't raise the average Pinoy's expectations too much. Anong "Sophisticated Military Weapons at Surveillance Equipment" pinagsasasabi mo???

 

At present, it only has a 76MM Oto Melara Main Gun, .50Cal & 7.62GPMG for the weapons suite and a surface search radar for patrol duties. The air search radar it had was not part of the bargain, hence the yanks removed it. In a nutshell, all it can detect are other ships but it can't detect aircraft.

 

There are plans though to put Surface to Surface missiles, Surface to Air missiles, torpedoes, a sonar suite, a new air search radar and a helicopter on her.

 

Once said plan materializes, then you can truly say that she has "Sophisticated Military Weapons at Surveillance Equipment".

Maigi na iyon kumpara sa BRP Raja Humabon.

This came out today:

http://business.inquirer.net/16593/us-stocks-pummeled-by-bleak-jobs-data

"Financial stocks took a severe pounding after The New York Times reported that US authorities would sue more than a dozen big banks over their peddling of mortgage-backed securities prior to the 2008 financial crisis."

This gives credence to accusations that Wall Street and US banks' excessive greed caused the 2008 financial crisis.

Your first point is self-contradictory because you argue that the U.S. is in control but market forces determine the value of what they lend. On top of that, you forgot to mention that each time the U.S. gets fewer cents for every dollar that it borrows due to mounting debt.

 

You don't know anything about rigged credit ratings? How do you think those investments that led to the 2008 crash received high ratings?

The problem isn't just a "big government" but increased total borrowing and spending across all sectors. The bigger problem is U.S. banks exposed to over $370 trillion in unregulated derivatives, part of a global market made up of more than a quadrillion dollars. It was some of those derivatives that led to the 2008 crash, and it's similar to that trillion dollars leveraged many times around the world. So, you see, I do get the "bigger picture."

 

Your last point is contradictory: you want to cut down the size of the government but you also want the government to give "free food."

 

What will likely happen is that one credit crunch will follow another, with government and banks attempting to thwart that with QE3, QE4, and more, meanwhile receiving fewer cents for every dollar borrowed. Oil prices will go up each time energy demand hits production ceiling, as global oil production has remained flat since 2006 and oil discoveries peaked in 1964. Ultimately, it's that type of problem--a resource crunch--that will make economic crisis look like a walk in the park.

Just to add. Banks have gotten stricter now in lending money. In fact, it is hard to get credit nowadays. How can you have a credit crunch if banks are hardly lending?

Your first point is self-contradictory because you argue that the U.S. is in control but market forces determine the value of what they lend. On top of that, you forgot to mention that each time the U.S. gets fewer cents for every dollar that it borrows due to mounting debt.

 

You don't know anything about rigged credit ratings? How do you think those investments that led to the 2008 crash received high ratings?

The problem isn't just a "big government" but increased total borrowing and spending across all sectors. The bigger problem is U.S. banks exposed to over $370 trillion in unregulated derivatives, part of a global market made up of more than a quadrillion dollars. It was some of those derivatives that led to the 2008 crash, and it's similar to that trillion dollars leveraged many times around the world. So, you see, I do get the "bigger picture."

 

Your last point is contradictory: you want to cut down the size of the government but you also want the government to give "free food."

 

What will likely happen is that one credit crunch will follow another, with government and banks attempting to thwart that with QE3, QE4, and more, meanwhile receiving fewer cents for every dollar borrowed. Oil prices will go up each time energy demand hits production ceiling, as global oil production has remained flat since 2006 and oil discoveries peaked in 1964. Ultimately, it's that type of problem--a resource crunch--that will make economic crisis look like a walk in the park.

The 2008 crash was caused by 'toxic assets'. Toxic assets are mortgage based securities/derivatives with extremely high risk; it was extremely high risk because the banks lent money to people who do not have good credit and the housing market was highly inflated (real estate bubble). The derivatives failed because those derivatives are built from extremely high risk mortgage. Also, the insurers of these derivatives underestimated the risk and are unable to pay for the insured amount when the massive failures happened. That in turn caused the failure of several US banks and financial insurers such as Lehman Brothers and the American Insurance Group (AIG).

Most of the funding for these mortgages are not from the US government but from foreign and local fund holdings company. The US housing bubble was funded by money from abroad who thought the US housing market was stable before 2008. So, if they pushed a $1 million to the US housing market before 2008, by 2008, their money is only worth about $100,000 or less. That explains why many heads of funding companies committed suicide because they wouldn't be able to get their money back; they had not diversified their investments and was attracted by big potential profits in the US real estate market. It also explains the massive loses from the derivatives market. The loses in the derivatives market does not translate to debt. It only means that somebody lost money by betting on the wrong "horse".

You wouldn't need credit ratings anymore if your stock, derivatives or securities already went to bust. That's how market forces work.

The US is a First World country. Food is not a problem. Food is not considered big government spending.

Honestly, you have to read more macro economics, stock/derivatives trading, and fixed income books to understand the financial markets. I know it because I work in the financial markets industry.

"The Decline and Fall of the American Empire"

 

http://www.cbsnews.c...in7121029.shtml

 

which includes a reference to a 2008 report from the National Intelligence Council. The group anticipates a "soft landing," though.

 

The more significant problem, of course, is the energy needed to maintain global economic growth. See the thread about peak oil for details.

That was written by a history professor and not an economics professor.

Much of the wealth is not controlled by "Americans" but by only around 1 pct of U.S. citizens. The same takes place in other parts of the world. In general, only a very small number of people control much of the wealth of the world.

False. My access ako sa US global securities trading kaya alam ko.

reality na yan, no doubt about it... yung GDP nga November last year lang sinimulan yung procurement process, May this year transferred na satin.... matagal ng plano ng PN yan, pera lang talaga kulang.

 

The Malampaya Gas fields going full blast is the game changer. Pera-pera lang yan eh, basta meron kang pera ang bilis. What i like about the malampaya gas fields is that it's income is controlled by the Department of Energy... kaya halos discretion nila kung saan dadalin yung pera... kung controlled ng congress yang income ng malampaya naku!!!!! meron nakong apo at lahat wala pa ding barko.

 

Credit should be given where credit is due. The primary mover of this idea that Malampaya income be used to help the AFP was former Dept. of Energy Secretary Angelo Reyes during his term in the DOE... Also the Petroleum industry here in the Philippines.... kung di sila sumang-ayon kay Reyes at di nag-ingay yang mga yan sa gobyerno, wala pa ding barko kahit meron ng pera...

 

3 up-armed Hamiltons with 3 medium helicopters on board, the proposed 3 Brand New MPV's to be bought from Indonesia and the Brand New Lead-in Jets to be bought are a credible force in the WPS.... They may not be strong, but they're credible enough to put those commie chink squatters on hold...

 

Nowadays, NAVAL VISIBILITY's the name of the game in the WPS....

Merong support ang acquisition ng 3 Hamilton class ships based sa Foreign Military Sales program ng Amerika. Ang dinig ko may financial incentive ito na component kaya malakas ang interes ng gobyerno ng Pilipinas.

scuttlebut is, they're going for 3 Medium type Helis that are to be stationed 1 each for the 3 Hamiltons... 2 more Hamiltons after the GDP are currently on the negotiating block which Uncle Sam is likely to approve. Each Medium Type Chopper (which the Blackhawk is one of) can be armed with either Torpedoes for anti-submarine warfare or Precision Guided Munitions (Smart Bombs for desk bound warriors who watch CNN)...

 

Plus there are already plans to install Long Range Air Search Radars on the GDP and the 2 others on the board because the Yanks removed the ones installed on them prior to transferring to the Philippine Navy. The GDP currently has only a Long Range Surface Radar, they can only detect ships, not planes....

 

The future plans for the 3 Hamiltons which would be funded by the Malampaya gas fields income are the following:

 

-Brand New Long Range Air Search Radar

-Brand New Medium Class Chopper (Probably Sokols from Poland or Blackhawks from the US)

-Surface to Surface Missiles (Probably Tomahawk cruise missiles)

-Sonar System (to detect submarines)

-Torpedoes

-Air Defense Missiles

-25MM Automatic Cannons

-Additional .50Cal Mahineguns

-Chaff (to lure away incoming Air to surface or surface to surface Missiles)

 

Remember guys, those 3 Hamilton's are just for Naval Visibility, they're not expected to go toe to toe with the commie chinks. They were bought to Patrol the WPS, not slug it out with the Chink Navy.

 

Kaya lang naman malakas loob manghimasok ng mga intsik na yan kasi wala tayong assets sa lugar, but with the arrival of the Hamiltons, well, they're a game changer...

 

di na basta-basta makapag tatayo ng mga structures mga intsik na yan sa spratly's....

 

kasi yung mga intsik parang squatters sila eh.... pag squatters nakakita ng bakanteng lote at walang bantay, tayo agad ng mga bahay yan.

 

pero kahit na isang barangay sila at nakita nila na yung lote eh meron kahit na isang sekyu, kahit na kinakalawang na yung shotgun nung sekyu, they wouldn't dare build their shanties on said lot.

 

ang kailangan lang kasi eh bago pa sila makapagtayo ng structures nila eh meron nang sumita sa kanila. yung mga squatter ganon din, hanggat hindi pa buo yung bahay nila at nasita na agad nung sekyu, karipas mga P.I. na yan....

2 More Hamilton Class ships are already a done deal. There is already a contract for a total of 3 with 1 already delivered as the GDP. New group of sailors and officers will be trained in the USA like the group that boarded the GDP. The US Coast Guard is set to decommission 3 more Hamilton class ships and 2 of them will go to the Philippines.

Dumating na ang isa sa mga Hamilton class ships. Ang pangalan na ibinigay ay BRP Gregorio H del Pilar. Tutuloy kaagad ito sa Spratleys. 4 months continuous operations ang capability nito sa high seas. Fully equipped din ng sophisticated military weapons at surveillance equipment.

Btw, China also owes Americans money in the form of investments in Chinese public stocks. Hong Kong and Shanghai have stock exchanges where foreigners trade Chinese stocks. It's a global economy nowadays. Check on the stockholders of Chinese publicly traded companies and you will find that a lot of them have a lot of American holding companies as major investors. Also, look at Taiwan and Japan stock exchange company info - lots of American holding companies as stockholders.

Just to give you an idea how rich the USA is. 10% of the US population make $100,000 or more per year. It means that there are 25 million Americans who make $100,000 or more a year. This may change in the future, but still, this statistics illustrates the wealth of Americans.

...

That should be the case because Walmart is one of the largest corporations in the world, but the country also has one of the highest levels of debt, a dollar that is essentially propped up by rigged credit ratings, something like a quarter of its debts controlled by China, and economic growth based essentially on borrowing and spending.

 

And it's running out of bullets needed to borrow more.

This is mainly a misconception when a foreign country buys Treasuries from the US. The country that 'sells' treasury notes is still in control and market forces still dictate the prices; also, no country can just turn treasury notes into cash and get the same price. Assuming China sells 1 trillion dollars in notes, China will be lucky to even get half of that in cash today due to market forces. And, if China gets cash for it, what does it do with the cash? Do they reinvest it in another note with the same level of security as a US Treasury Note? Or, do they leave it in a vault until it depreciates? China would be better off waiting for the notes to mature than to sell it. The US has a lot of debt but a big amount of that is also local debt - meaning the US government will pay the debt to private American citizens. Also, the US is one of the countries that a lot of money saved by private citizens for their retirement - very few countries have this. American private citizens have several trillion dollars in retirement savings. Rigged credit ratings?!! If it is rigged, so why is there a market correction right now? Remember, there are 250 million Americans in the land mass of USA while there are 1.2 billion Chinese in the same amount of land mass. Who do you think will go hungry first? The Chinese were even lucky to put money in US Treasury notes coz if they didn't they would have ended up like the Middle East financiers which put their money in risky stocks and securities. I work in the US mutual fund industry, and 1 trillion dollars can be represented by one American mutual fund company. There are hundreds of American mutual fund companies. What it means, is that 1 trillion dollars is readily available from American private citizens. Just a twist, this 1 trillion dollars in private American citizen's money is invested around the world. Do you get the picture? The problem of the US government right now is simply big government spending and they are trying to make it reasonable by cutting down on the bureaucracy - what it mean is less government employees and less spending. So, if the US government is able to cut down size, the problem is solved. Cutting down the size of US government is a hard task since the country is used to big spending. If it was food, there is no problem in the US. People get fatter in a recession coz government still gives free food. Homeless people in the US can still eat at McDonald's everyday and still have money for cigarettes and alcohol courtesy of the US government.

Stop the doomsday scenario. If you haven't been to a First World country, like Japan, US or Europe, you likely don't have a good picture of what wealth means and how it works. Also, the US has already seen the worst of a financial crisis of the century, the Great Depression. This recession is not even close to that.

daming estupido dito sa MTC. maski walang pruweba, magsasalita na lang ng masama sa kapwa tao.

You don't have to be in a mental hospital to be crazy. They think the only thing that matters is their opinion. They "fly" amongst us. Like a superhero.

Feeling, pag sya, kasi ulol sya, bwahahaha!

 

talk about somebody that does NOT command respect, in spite of the position he is in...

 

Imagine, presidente ka na, pinagtatawan ka pa, not just for your cartoonish looks, but your stupidity...

 

not even gloria got that much ridicule, iba to, walang sinabi si Mr Bean dito...

 

dufus! can you at least walk with your mouth closed! nakakahiya ka sa madla!

I dare somebody to give him a 'pendong'. Let's see if somebody really thinks he commands no respect.

Di ba't siya ang Presidente at Commander in Chief?! Feeling lang ba iyon?

These are not sold by the US government but by companies which are multi-national. Just like New Jersey Nets operating in the US but owned by a Russian businessman

Practically all public companies are multi-national because anybody can buy stocks. US defense companies are wholly owned by Americans. I think you are moving out of topic by mentioning basketball team ownership.

That's very near-sighted and uninformed. US gov't is biggest BUYER of arms; 68% of all arms expenditures are by the US gov't. They don't sell arms at all. Private companies like GE and MD do

It's not near-sighted. Everytime US sells war materials and equipment there is a corresponding economic benefit to the US economy. Also, war munitions and equipment have future maintenance cost and future replacement cost. Examples are: bombs and missiles have to be replaced or used at the end of 15 years; aircraft requires parts replacements; during the Iraq invasion, all defense manufacturing stocks jumped 60% to 200% in market value. The defense industry creates jobs.