money Stock Market

[THUG]

Kaya nga eh. Buti na lang muna ako tumuloy. Siguro for starters stick muna ako sa balanced funds. But i'll still scan every so often the business pages. Abang-abangan ko IPO ng GMA7.

 

Ano nga pala say mo sa GMA? I'm interested to hear your predictions.

 

Thanks.

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GMA 7 is ok.. but you have to consider if the IPO price matches with the book value of the company..

 

if this comes out overpriced then you are in danger.. kaya nga IPO is risky.. you dont have any charts or graphs to rely on.. only the financial statement of the company..

 

 

when SCC went IPO i knew that stock was grossly overprice after looking at the financial statements.. and eventually after i week reality sets in..

[THUG]

PLDT is an excellent blue chip but once you make profit sell, act before others get a hint or before you know the shares are gonna drop.

Also, buy shares low and sell high. ABS-CBN is having a tough time right now and so market movers are going to invest in it. Wouldn't it be logical to invest in something people don't really expect, I assume so. Also, invest in companies that have cash-rich balance sheets, even companies with debt are fine, you just have to be familiar with the management and corporate organization. I just keep an eye out on the PSE but I trade internationally.

The ultra tragedy is a political catalyst, the politicians and bureaucrats are taking it out on the Lopezes which is quite obvious. One has to remember it isn't really their fault, they are partly to be held liable for it but it was also the crowd's doing. Buy San Miguel B, its shares are stable at 80+, a couple of months ago it was 100+, it will be a good long-term investment, always think 6 months to a couple of years ahead, it depends what you're looking for, a quick buck or long steady investment.

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oh oh.. you want disclosure? i just sold ALL my PLDT stocks..

 

Morgan Stanley is correct.. PLDT has very minimal upside now that telcos are a sunset industry.. Voice over IP is now the new technology..

 

you see.. stock market trading is all about bluffing..its like a poker game.. its trader against trader, broker against broker, investor against investor..its you against me..

[al12678]

exactly, telcos are nearing their bust.

[scooby91]

Who among the listed TELCOs are moving into VOIP?

[magnus]

really? galing ah.

 

has voip the technology reached our shores? is the infrastructure in place such that it will bite off a huge chunk of pldt profits soon that you have to hurriedly sell your stocks?

 

beside voice over ip uses internet connection, and guess which company provides the internet connectivity in the philippines...

 

oh oh.. you want disclosure? i just sold ALL my PLDT stocks..

 

Morgan Stanley is correct.. PLDT has very minimal upside now that telcos are a sunset industry.. Voice over IP is now the new technology..

 

you see.. stock market trading is all about bluffing..its like a poker game.. its trader against trader, broker against broker, investor against investor..its you against me..

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[THUG]

really? galing ah.

 

has voip the technology reached our shores? is the infrastructure in place such that it will bite off a huge chunk of pldt profits soon that you have to hurriedly sell your stocks?

 

beside voice over ip uses internet connection, and guess which company provides the internet connectivity in the philippines...

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the only ISP in the listed stocks is Philweb.. PLDT was reported to be interested in buying a portion of Philweb..

[warhead]

the only ISP in the listed stocks is Philweb.. PLDT was reported to be interested in buying a portion of Philweb..

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it's not an ISP anymore. PhilWeb is now an online casino company, one of the few listed in Asia and in the world, online gaming being a highly regulated industry in the US.

 

The planned buy-in by PLDT is through its Internet arm, ePLDT, which is also owns Netopia (internet cafes), Infocom (ISp), Vitro (data center), Airborne Access (wireless services), MySecureSign (digital certificates); Spoon Interactive (game development), Vocative (call center); Parlance (call center); BayanTrade (e-commerce); Stradcom (which owns a 10-yr franchise in LTO's computerization).

 

PLDT's planned acquisition of 20% in Philweb is the company's way of seeking more revenues due to flattening revenues from its main moneymaker, Smart. Philweb has an exclusive license to provide online casino/sportsbetting technology to the governments number one moneymaker, PAGCOR. Online casinos have an estimated annual revenues of $7 billion to $10 billion dollars, so even a small percentage translates to a huge income for companies involved in online gaming.

 

With the introduction of 3G technology, PLDT with it's plannedd acquisition of PhilWeb, will have another source of revenue, betting in online casinos through the use of mobile phones. In an article in VOA News, it was noted that remote casino-style gambling is only allowed in Macau and in the Philippines.

In Asia-Pacific region alone, close to 100 million people will use their mobile phones to gamble by the year 2010.

[alexzander]

namputsa... pupunta sa stock exchange si Gloria... dapat kahapon sya pupunta eh down ang market... hindi tumuloy... tapos ngayong up, biglang pupunta... masyadong showbiz talaga...

[magnus]

it just shows how PLDT is handling this VOIP 'threat'.

 

if i recall correctly, during the growth of the cellular technology in the early 90s up to its boom, it threatened PLDT, which still has a lot of backlogs in telephone lines. but you know how PLDT handled the competition.

 

i won't be surprised if there's another buyout of a major ISP provider and PLDT will again corner the market.

 

BTW, do you guys know how ISPs here transmit data abroad? I thought it was through submarine cable to japan or something

 

it's not an ISP anymore. PhilWeb is now an online casino company, one of the few listed in Asia and in the world, online gaming being a highly regulated industry in the US.

 

The planned buy-in by PLDT is through its Internet arm, ePLDT, which is also owns Netopia (internet cafes), Infocom (ISp), Vitro (data center), Airborne Access (wireless services), MySecureSign (digital certificates); Spoon Interactive (game development), Vocative (call center); Parlance (call center); BayanTrade (e-commerce); Stradcom (which owns a 10-yr franchise in LTO's computerization).

 

PLDT's planned acquisition of 20% in Philweb is the company's way of seeking more revenues due to flattening revenues from its main moneymaker, Smart. Philweb has an exclusive license to provide online casino/sportsbetting technology to the governments number one moneymaker, PAGCOR. Online casinos have an estimated annual revenues of $7 billion to $10 billion dollars, so even a small percentage translates to a huge income for companies involved in online gaming.

 

With the introduction of 3G technology, PLDT with it's plannedd acquisition of PhilWeb, will have another source of revenue,  betting in online casinos through the use of mobile phones. In an article in VOA News, it was noted that remote casino-style gambling is only allowed in Macau and in the Philippines.

In Asia-Pacific region alone, close to 100 million people will use their mobile phones to gamble by the year 2010.

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[hapiguyMD]

Pare,

 

I'm just citing First Gen as case study. But it does not follow na kukuha ako nito. Actually, I'm setting my sights on GMA dahil baka this na sila mag IPO. Gusto ko sana ready ako once GMA goes public. Balita ko din Robina will go public with its new capitalization needs.

 

Kaso nga, ignarante ako how IPO works. I'm sure other members would also appreciate to know a thing or two about this. So ire-raise ko ulit yung mga tanong ko:

 

1. Where do I need to go to buy shares?

2. What are the extra charges to look out for?

3. Citing, for sample purposes, the case of First Gen na may Offer Price P51.00 to P62.00 per Offer Share, ano talaga ang presyo nito?

4. How do I redeem my investment? May lock-in period ba?

5. Lahat ba ng IPOs OK pasukan?

6. When is a good time to get in and bail out, just in time for grate piece of the action?

 

Thanks pare.

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#1. You do need a broker for buying stocks, IPO or otherwise

 

#2. There are per trade costs that you pay the broker, it varies, the rest are minor (doc stamps, etc). No tax yet until you sell .

 

#5 like they said, no.

 

#6. If someone gives you an answer for this, let me know. If you have a really really good, and more improtantly, a trustworthy broker, maybe he could tell you, otherwise....

 

I forgot the name of the book i gave my sister, written by the CEO of PET Plans. "Wealth within your reach". It's a taglish book that explains tha basics. Basically I browsed through it and realized I shouldn't invest in stocks in the Philippines, hehehe...

[scooby91]

IPOs are indeed a risky investment although there is potential for large gains...

 

for the advocates of Ben Graham or Warren Buffet.. medyo todo scrutinize before mag IPO..

 

try "The Intellegent Investor" .. its a good read.

[bilbowski]

I have been planning to invest in stocks but I have no idea as to what to do and where to go. Do I need to find a broker first? Your advice would be very much appreciated. Thanks.

[magnus]

you could either find a broker or use the online trading by rcbc or bpi. i don't know if meron pang iba.

 

good luck!

 

I have been planning to invest in stocks but I have no idea as to what to do and where to go.  Do I need to find a broker first?  Your advice would be very much appreciated.  Thanks.

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[scooby91]

some brokers are recommending BUY for JFVC and URC due strong fundaments.

any comments? are these stocks expected to go up in the next weeks? or long term hold value?

[Dr_PepPeR]

you could either find a broker or use the online trading by rcbc or bpi. i don't know if meron pang iba.

 

good luck!

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My advice is to use a broker or open a trust account. It really depends on how much you are willing to invest. Blue chips are always sold in blocks so going through a broker or trust institution will help you diversify your investments.

[jopoc]

I have been planning to invest in stocks but I have no idea as to what to do and where to go.  Do I need to find a broker first?  Your advice would be very much appreciated.  Thanks.

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i have a good friend whose family has a brokerage business in tektite.

 

contact me for the details

[Quentin]

I have been planning to invest in stocks but I have no idea as to what to do and where to go.  Do I need to find a broker first?  Your advice would be very much appreciated.  Thanks.

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I'll try to explain this in a nutshell (YES this is just a nutshell of it ). Investing isn't just about buying a stock, as they say "any fool can buy a lottery ticket". A lot of people approach investing like horse race betting. They'll just try to ask "knowledgeable" people on what stocks to invest in, it's worse if they consider their stock broker as the "knowledgeable" person. In truth a stockbroker is more akin to a salesman, his job is to sell the stocks that give him good commissions and so he gives his sales pitch to his clients who then perceive it as "good advice". Majority of typical "investors" listen to their broker's advice and when they lose their money, complain that investing is just too risky, that even after getting excellent advice their stocks still failed.

 

How then does one select stocks then, through market analysis which is either fundamental or technical analysis. Fundamental analysis looks at a company's data like earnings ratio and other things. Usually looking for companies whose stock price is undervalued compared to the company's assets, earnings report, or other things. On the other hand technical analysis is built on the premise that everything about a company is expressed in its price. If a company is found to be undervalued, buyers would cause the price to move and that price movement would alert technical analysts. Classical technical analysis is more of looking at the geometric formations the price makes as it moves. This works on the premise that the vast majority of investors usually react the same way in regards to certain events, thereby forming geometric formations on the price movement which can then be predicted. Japanese candlesticks work the same way but they just have different formations as they plot the price in a different way. The more modern method is mathematical technical analysis, which consists of formulas (called indicators) applied to the price to produce more charts. A general distinguishing factor to these indicators is whether they are trend following or mean reversion. Trend following attempts to tell if the price movement (whether upward or downward) will continue, thereby signalling that its a good time to buy if an upward trend is continuing. Mean reversion attempts to determine if a price movement is about to reverse, e.g. if a stock is moving downwards and indicators say its about to reverse then its a good time to buy as price will soon appreciate. Each of these have their believers who can make their method work but fail if they use an opposing method. So one needs to determine which they'll use in their investing. Sometimes its a matter of finding out which method works for the market that one wants to invest in or finding the right market where the method you want works.

 

Buying a stock is just the beginning, its the rest that actually mostly determines whether or not you'll earn. This is another of the biggest mistake a beginner makes, that of thinking that investing is just about buying a good stock. In truth one needs to determine his exits as much as his entry BEFORE buying the stock. As after buying a stock one becomes emotional to it, as one author says "its like that old jacket in your closet, you know you should just get rid of it but it's your jacket and you feel that you should keep it". If a stock you buy falls by 1% would you sell it? what if it then goes down 5%, 10%, or even 20%? When a stock falls people usually start hoping it'll come back up, they feel that they "should regain their investment at any cost". And so small losses become big losses until one doesn't have enough funds to invest anymore, generally termed as "blowing up". This is when one should remember the old adage "cut your losses and let your profits run", losing small means you'll have enough left to invest again. Of course sometimes the stock does rebound, so its important to determine beforehand (when you're still thinking rationally) at what point the stock is really going down and not just a temporary downturn.

 

On the other hand even if your stock is earning you should also determine at what point you should let go of it. This can be in terms of profit or in terms of time. Losing supposed profits is just as bad as losing capital. An example of short term is if you bought a stock because the company has a new product that'll give it market advantage, after the product gets old will the company still produce good earnings?

 

The next aspect of investing is position sizing. A lesson I got from Ed Seykota, "one should bet an amount big enough to get a worthwhile gain while small enough that it won't hurt you much if it didn't go your way". Paradoxical as it sounds I don't think one can easily say it in a way that'll make perfect sense to a beginner, it's experience that'll tell you how much is the "right" amount. Although some related strategies are the martingale and anti-martingale strategy. Martingale is what is commonly known as cost averaging. If you invest x amount and you lose it, you invest 2x in your next stock, and if you lose again you invest 4x next and so on. The premise is that by putting in twice the amount on the next investment you immediately regain your initial loss if the second investment earned. The problem with this is easy to see, a string of losses can easily wipe you out. Of course you don't really need to put twice, even if you use the same amount in the same stock, the lower price means you'll then get more shares. On the other hand anti martingale involves doubling your trade after a profit instead of after a loss. The premise is that if you're on a winning streak you might as well take advantage of it to earn more, and if you're losing you invest less to lose less the next time.

 

The last aspect is your discipline. If you've taken the previous aspects into consideration then you've already gone a long way (because majority of so called investors don't bother with them), however the next question is whether or not you can follow it. Simple and silly as this sounds its actually hard to do which is why its an aspect just as important as the other ones. The reason is human psychology, once an investment is entered one stops being rational and becomes emotional. You'll see yourself changing your feelings from one of greed (when you're profiting) and fear (when you're losing). At both points acting emotionally can lead you back to loss.

 

As a last point, if you'll notice I only enumerated and gave an overview of each aspect (and not actually tried to teach you). This is because it's up to you and only you to study and find what works for you. And honestly if you can't do those necessary due diligence then I suggest a mutual fund as if not you'll likely end up being burned. Unfortunately bookstores here in the Philippines only have what I refer to as pseudo investing books (those teaching the buy and hold forever). Even funnier is that they're selling "Bible of Options Trading" (or something don't remember the actual title) in powerbooks, guess they forgot that there are no options in the PSE.

 

Hope this helps.

[warhead]

do you trade stocks quentin? want to swap tips, rumors, gut feels, hunch?

of course, the "caveat emptor" rule applies.

 

thanks

[Quentin]

Nope, I prefer forex, for one thing I don't need any tips, rumors, gut feels, or hunches there. I'll I need to see is the price and some simple indicators.

[xxxpert]

buy ABS. buy on weakness. salamat wowowee....

[Steel17]

Is it still good to buy stocks with a capital of P35,000-P50,000 only?

[scooby91]

Nope, I prefer forex, for one thing I don't need any tips, rumors, gut feels, or hunches there.  I'll I need to see is the price and some simple indicators.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

u trade forex? bow down kami sa iyo Q... that's pretty volalite and stressful stuff right?

[scooby91]

whats the latest on SMPH?

some traders are recommending to sell, due to major delays in the opening of the MALL of ASIA.

will this affect that fundamentals for SMPH?

 

How about URC?

is this still a strong BUY? i'd like to get some shares but i thinkits overbought na... any tips?

[jt2003]

u trade forex? bow down kami sa iyo Q... that's pretty volalite and stressful stuff right?

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I agree. With forex, you can lose your entire investment in a single day. That's why forex trading sites have warnings to investors. At least with stocks, outside of a crash, you simply lose value.

[Quentin]

>that's pretty volalite and stressful stuff right?

 

If you ask me, if your trading system is stressful then you will have a stressful time trading. Take daytrading for example, it's ironic that people who only trade part time prefer to use daytrading. Daytrading requires hell of a lot of commitment and discipline. Long term trading systems like trend following allows one to enter/exit positions just a couple of times a month or maybe even spend months without doing a single transaction (that's why I now have a lot of free time and am just posting here and there, after Bank of Japan announced plans tightening their policy the JPY rallied (that was monday), when that waned off I closed my postion and am just waiting for an entry).

 

From volatility comes profits, learn to love volatility.

 

 

 

>With forex, you can lose your entire investment in a single day.

 

One, that's why one needs to develop their trading system and define their entry/exit before doing the trade. As they say, "Plan the trade then trade the plan", and the general adage "Failing the plan is planning to fail".

 

Two, quite honestly if you're unsure of a trade its better to just pass it up, "Opportunities just come and go, they are never lost", or as Alexander Elder says "Entering a trade is like catching a train, you'll only put yourself in danger trying to catch a moving train, there's always a next train so why bother putting yourself in danger when there's always a next train".

 

Third, for leveraged trading its typical to place just 1% or less of equity in a trade, people who come from stock investing are used to allocating most of their money in trades at any time. They fail to realize that in markets like forex, by putting only 1% in a trade they can fail 100 times before blowing up. With proper stops even if you only profit once every ten trades, that's more than enough to make up for the previous nine losses. The people who blow up in one day are usually those who allocate a lot of equity in one or several trade/s, thinking only that if they're right they gain big, and forgetting that if they lose, they also lose big. One should remember that when they're just starting in trading forex (or other "very risky" markets) that their goal is to learn to trade and not to make money.

 

 

In business, in stocks, in forex, or in any other market; there is risk. The key is learning to truly accept that risk instead of fearing it (From Mark Douglas' "Trading in the zone").