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If aliens are out there...why haven't they contacted us?


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#1 Larry

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 11:42 AM

I guess most people who read this are already of the same mind that they think aliens exist, and a lot of scientists and other smart people think the same way too, if only because of the sheer numbers, there has got to be at least one other civilization out there in space.

but why have they not contacted us?


Physicist Enrico Fermi asked this same question with his now famous Fermi Paradox...

The Sun is a young star. There are billions of stars in the galaxy that are billions of years older;

Some of these stars likely have Earth-like planets[2] which, if the Earth is typical, may develop intelligent life;

Presumably some of these civilizations will develop interstellar travel, a technology Earth is investigating even now;

At any practical pace of interstellar travel, the galaxy can be completely colonized in just a few tens of millions of years.

According to this line of thinking, the Earth should have already been colonized, or at least visited. But no convincing evidence of this exists. Furthermore, no confirmed signs of intelligence elsewhere have been spotted, either in our galaxy or the more than 80 billion other galaxies of the observable universe.


Hence Fermi's question "Where is everybody?".


--------

What follows are eleven probable reasons why the Fermi Paradox exists...


1. The Zoo Hypothesis

Though it sounds like something from a Twilight Zone episode, it’s quite possible that we’re stuck inside some kind of celestial cage. ETI’s may have stumbled upon our tiny blue marble a long time ago, but, for whatever reason, they’re observing us from afar. It might be that we’re entertainment for them (like watching monkeys in the zoo), or that they’re studying us for scientific purposes. Regardless, they’ve invoked a hand’s off policy and they’re leaving us alone.

This idea was first proposed by John Ball in 1973, who argued that extraterrestrial intelligent life may be almost ubiquitous, but that the “apparent failure of such life to interact with us may be understood in terms of the hypothesis that they have set us aside as part of a wilderness area or zoo.” We could be part of a vast nature preserve that has been set off limits, free to grow unperturbed by intelligent life. It’s an idea that somewhat related to Star Trek’s Prime Directive in which civilizations are left alone until they attain a certain technology capacity. It’s also an idea that UFOlogists are partial to — the suggestion that aliens are essentially here, but observing us from a distance.


2. Self-Imposed Quarantine

This is pretty much the opposite of the zoo hypothesis. Extraterrestrials have the potential to be dangerous. Like, extremely dangerous. So rather than fart around the Galaxy in spaceships and hope that everyone’s super friendly, ETI’s may have collectively and independently decided to stay the hell at home and not draw attention to themselves.

And why not? It would be perfectly reasonable to conclude, especially in light of the Fermi Paradox, that the cosmos is filled with perils — whether it be an imperialistic civilization on the march, or a wave of berserker probes set to sterilize everything in its wake. And to ensure that nobody bothers them, advanced ETIs could set up a perimeter of Sandberg probes (self-replicating policing probes) to make sure that nobody gets in


3. The Whack-a-Mole Hypothesis

Imagine if there’s a kind of Prime Directive in effect, but that ETIs are hovering over us with a giant hammer ready to smack it down should it suddenly not like what it sees. These ETI’s would be like Gort from The Day the Earth Stood Still, intent on preserving the galactic peace. "There's no limit to what Gort could do,” said Klaatu, “He could destroy the Earth." So what is Gort or other advanced ETIs waiting for, exactly? One possibility is the technological Singularity. In the space of possible survivable Singularities, a sizeable portion of them might result in an extremely dangerous artificial superintelligence (SAI). The kind of SAI that could set about the destruction of the entire Galaxy. So, in order to prevent the bad ones from emerging — while giving the good ones a fair chance to get started — the Galactic Club keeps watch.

4. We’re Made Out of Meat

From the Nebula Award-nominated short story, “They’re Made Out of Meat” by Terry Bisson:

"They're made out of meat."

"Meat?"

"Meat. They're made out of meat."

"Meat?"

"There's no doubt about it. We picked up several from different parts of the planet, took them aboard our recon vessels, and probed them all the way through. They're completely meat."

"That's impossible. What about the radio signals? The messages to the stars?"

"They use the radio waves to talk, but the signals don't come from them. The signals come from machines."

"So who made the machines? That's who we want to contact."

"They made the machines. That's what I'm trying to tell you. Meat made the machines."

"That's ridiculous. How can meat make a machine? You're asking me to believe in sentient meat."

"I'm not asking you, I'm telling you. These creatures are the only sentient race in that sector and they're made out of meat."

A little while later:

"They actually do talk, then. They use words, ideas, concepts?"

"Oh, yes. Except they do it with meat."

"I thought you just told me they used radio."

"They do, but what do you think is on the radio? Meat sounds. You know how when you slap or flap meat, it makes a noise? They talk by flapping their meat at each other. They can even sing by squirting air through their meat."

"Omigod. Singing meat. This is altogether too much. So what do you advise?"

"Officially or unofficially?"

"Both."

"Officially, we are required to contact, welcome and log in any and all sentient races or multibeings in this quadrant of the Universe, without prejudice, fear or favor. Unofficially, I advise that we erase the records and forget the whole thing."

"I was hoping you would say that."

"It seems harsh, but there is a limit. Do we really want to make contact with meat?"

"I agree one hundred percent. What's there to say? 'Hello, meat. How's it going?'

5. The Simulation Hypothesis

We haven’t been visited by anyone because we’re living inside a computer simulation — and the simulation isn’t generating any extraterrestrial companions for us.

If true, this could imply one of three things. First, the bastards — I mean Gods — running the simulation have rigged it such that we’re the only civilization in the entire Galaxy (or even the Universe). Or, there really isn’t a true universe out there, it just appears that way to us within our simulated bubble (It’s a ‘If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?’ type thing).

Another more bizarre possibility is that the simulation is being run by a posthuman civilization in search of an answer to the Fermi Paradox, or some other scientific question. Maybe, in an attempt to entertain various hypotheses (perhaps even preemptively in consideration of some proposed action), they’re running a billion different ancestor simulations to determine how many of them produce spacefaring civilizations, or even post-Singularity stage civilizations like themselves.

6. Radio Silence

This one is similar to the quarantine hypothesis, but it’s not quite as paranoid. But it’s still pretty paranoid. It’s possible that everyone is listening, but no one is transmitting.

And for very good reason. David Brin has argued that the practice of Active SETI would be like shouting out into the jungle (Active SETI is the deliberate transmission of high-powered radio signals to candidate star systems). Michael Michaud has made a similar case: “Let’s be clear about this,” he has written, “Active SETI is not scientific research. It is a deliberate attempt to provoke a response by an alien civilization whose capabilities, intentions, and distance are not known to us. That makes it a policy issue.” The concern, of course, is that we may draw undue attention to ourselves prematurely. It’s conceivable, therefore, that our collective governments may some day decide to shut down all Active SETI efforts. We should just be content to listen. But what if every civilization in the cosmos were to adopt the same policy? That would imply that everyone has gone radio silent.

As an aside, it could also be dangerous to listen: SETI may be at risk of downloading a malicious virus from outer space.

7. All Aliens Are Homebodies

This one isn’t so much weird as it might actually be possible. An advanced ETI, upon graduating to a Kardashev II scale civilization, could lose all galactic-scale ambitions. Once a Dyson sphere or Matrioshka Brain is set up, an alien civilization would have more action and adventure in its local area than it knows what to do with. Massive supercomputers would be able to simulate universes within universes, and lifetimes within lifetimes — and at speeds and variations far removed from what’s exhibited in the tired old analog world. By comparison, the rest of the galaxy would seem like a boring and desolate place. Space could very much be in the rear view mirror.

8. We Can’t Read the Signs

Now, it’s totally possible that the signs of ETIs are all around us, but we just can’t see them. Either we’re too stupid to notice, or we still need to develop our technologies to detect the signals. According to the current SETI approach, we should be listening for radio signatures. But a civilization far more advanced than our own might be using a different technique entirely. They could be signaling with lasers, for example. Lasers are good because they’re tightly focused beams with excellent informational bandwidth. They’re also able to penetrate our galaxy’s dusty interstellar medium.

Or, ETIs could use “calling cards” by exploiting the transmit method of detection (e.g. by constructing a massive perfectly geometrical structure, like a triangle or a square, and put in orbit around their host star).

And and as Stephen Webb has pointed out, there’s also the potential for electromagnetic signals, gravitational signals, particle signals, tachyon signals, or something completely beyond our understanding of physics. It’s also quite possible that they are in fact using radio signals, but we don’t know which frequency to tune into (the EM spectrum is extremely broad). More conceptually, we may eventually find a message buried in a place where we least expect it — like within the code of our DNA.

9. They’re All Hanging Out At the Edge of the Galaxy

This interesting solution to the Fermi Paradox was posited by Milan M. ?irkovi? and Robert Bradbury.

“We suggest that the outer regions of the Galactic disk are the most likely locations for advanced SETI targets,” they wrote. The reason for this is that sophisticated intelligent communities will tend to migrate outward through the Galaxy as their capacities of information-processing increase. Why? Because machine-based civilizations, with their massive supercomputers, will have huge problems managing their heat waste. They'll have to set up camp where it’s super cool. And the outer rim of the Galaxy is exactly that.

Subsequently, there may be a different galactic habitable zone for post-Singularity ETIs than for meat-based life. By consequence, advanced ETIs have no interest in exploring the bio-friendly habitable zone. Which means we’re looking for ET in the wrong place. Interestingly, Stephen Wolfram once told me that heat-free computing will someday be possible, so he doesn’t think this is a plausible solution to the Fermi Paradox.

10. Directed Panspermia

Or maybe we haven’t made contact with ETI’s because we’re the aliens. Or least, they’re our ancestors. According to this theory, which was first posited by Francis Crick (yes, that Francis Crick), aliens spark life on other planets (like sending spores to potentially fertile planets), and then bugger off. Forever. Or maybe they eventually come back.

This idea has been tackled extensively in scifi, including the Star Trek: The Next Generation episode, “The Chase” in which the uber-generic humanoid Salome Jens explains that its species is responsible for all life in the Alpha Quadrant, or Ridley Scott’s Prometheus, in which an alien can be seen seeding the primordial Earth with life. Even Arthur C. Clarke’s 2001 is a take on this idea, with the monoliths instigating massive evolutionary leaps.

11. The Phase Transition Hypothesis

This one is similar to the Rare Earth hypothesis, but it suggests that the universe is still evolving and changing. Subsequently, the conditions to support advanced intelligence have only recently fallen into place. This is what cosmologist James Annis refers to as the phase transition model of the universe — what he feels is an astrophysical explanation for the Great Silence.

According to Annis, a possible regulatory mechanism that can account for this is the frequency of gamma-ray bursts — super-cataclysmic events that can literally sterilize large swaths of the galaxy.

“If one assumes that they are in fact lethal to land based life throughout the galaxy,” he wrote, “one has a mechanism that prevents the rise of intelligence until the mean time between bursts is comparable to the timescale for the evolution of intelligence.” In other words, gamma-ray bursts are too frequent, and intelligent life is constantly getting wiped out before it develops the capacity to go interstellar. Looking to the future, however, given that gamma-ray bursts are decreasing in frequency, things are set to change. “The Galaxy is currently undergoing a phase transition between an equilibrium state devoid of intelligent life to a different equilibrium state where it is full of intelligent life,” says Annis.

Which would actually be good news.
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#2 airport-noo

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 12:44 PM

Colonization is probably not in the agenda because there are too many galaxies. But it does seem weird that the evidence isn't there. There are evidence that suggest, but there's no evidence that is beyond reasonable doubt for all doubters.

I don't like the last explanation but it sounds reasonable. Weren't we supposed to get wiped out less than 3 months ago?

#3 Larry

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 01:07 PM

I don't get your last sentence, were you referring to the supposed end of the world as a result of a gamma ray explosion?

#4 vokyhaks

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 01:55 PM

Really and as I have not thought about it earlier

#5 dungeonbaby

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 10:21 PM

going on nat geo and history channel specials alone, No. 10 seems to be the fave reason among alien-loving humans. maybe it's the prospect of having someone looking over us that is appealing. someone/something involved but aloof, which would explain the elusiveness.

what about hp lovecraft's cthulhu mythos, wherein an alien life form is simply hibernating on earth, waiting for the right time to reappear. i suppose that is a combination of reasons 1, 3, 4, and 8.

anyway, as fun as it is to think of aliens, i find figuring out earth-dwellers infinitely more fascinating. Posted Image

#6 jaggilierlela

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#7 ferway

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 07:26 AM

It agree, rather useful piece

#8 airport-noo

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 01:36 PM

I don't get your last sentence, were you referring to the supposed end of the world as a result of a gamma ray explosion?

I meant I don't like the idea because it means we're doomed to never reach inter-planetary travel, but it sounds like a reasonable explanation anyway. The cause may or may not be gamma ray explosions in particular; just the fact that a naturally occurring disaster causes it, hence my reference to the scheduled doomsday last January.

#9 jaggilierlela

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#10 jewskemo

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 08:09 PM

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#11 Larry

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Posted 27 March 2013 - 10:54 AM

I meant I don't like the idea because it means we're doomed to never reach inter-planetary travel, but it sounds like a reasonable explanation anyway. The cause may or may not be gamma ray explosions in particular; just the fact that a naturally occurring disaster causes it, hence my reference to the scheduled doomsday last January.


well I wouldn't say doomed, we're going inter-planetary right now with expeditions to Mars, inter-system travel however, is an entirely different matter.

we're doomed never to reach other "inhabitable" planets IF we continue approaching the problem linearly. Until someone, somehow grasps the concept of space-time, and how to manipulate it, we're never going to get very far.

The concept of "folding" space and time and using it as a means to travel, IMO is the only viable means of exploring space. Current propulsion technologies simply won't cut it. We're having huge problems right now even breaching the sound barrier (we can do it sure, but we can't do it safely and consistently still) and that is still miles off from achieving faster than light travel. and even if we did achieve faster than light travel, other systems would still be too far away for us to even attempt. Which is why we can't approach this in a linear fashion.


------

no doubt, gamma rays aren't the only thing that will k*ll us. But I think that what he's referring to is that the fact that gamma ray explosions can be used as some sort of marker to identify cataclysmic events that happen in space, as gamma explosions are usually the result of stars going hyper nova, and it is usually the "death" of a star. what's interesting is that scientists and astrophysicists are noticing at least 7-8 explosions in a week, which just totally blows my mind.

#12 Larry

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Posted 27 March 2013 - 11:10 AM

going on nat geo and history channel specials alone, No. 10 seems to be the fave reason among alien-loving humans. maybe it's the prospect of having someone looking over us that is appealing. someone/something involved but aloof, which would explain the elusiveness.

what about hp lovecraft's cthulhu mythos, wherein an alien life form is simply hibernating on earth, waiting for the right time to reappear. i suppose that is a combination of reasons 1, 3, 4, and 8.

anyway, as fun as it is to think of aliens, i find figuring out earth-dwellers infinitely more fascinating. Posted Image


well aliens are a convenient "scapegoat" if you will for unexplained phenomena. When civilization was young gods and goddesses played this role in explaining something that was out of their grasp, and to have people look to aliens as some sort of omniscient presence watching over us isn't surprising.

Cthulhu on the other hand, f#&king scares me.

earth dwellers are pretty straight forward. we're all stupid. We just think we're smart but we haven't actually tapped a fraction of our potential, and the way things are going now in the world, it almost seems like we never will.

you know what the scary thing is?

I know I'm stupid, I don't even know how to make half the s@%t I use everyday. Drop me on a deserted island, even if I had forever to work with, I wouldn't be able to send you an email, not in a million years. The internet? how does that s@%t even work? it's just random buttons that I press on a plastic box, that somehow sends signals to another guy that has another plastic box that punches a different set of buttons. f#&k all that, I'm not smart enough to figure all that s@%t out.

but the really scary part is, I know that I'm already THIS dumb, BUT I'm still smarter than almost 99% of the people that I meet.

#13 dungeonbaby

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Posted 27 March 2013 - 11:48 AM

but the really scary part is, I know that I'm already THIS dumb, BUT I'm still smarter than almost 99% of the people that I meet.


no kidding.

but what if cthulhu got dropped on that same deserted island you were on? you still wouldn't be able to send out an SOS? lol

anyway, if aliens did exist and they were all giant terrorist octopi, i'd rather there weren't any aliens at all, humanity's flaws notwithstanding.

Edited by dungeonbaby, 27 March 2013 - 11:51 AM.


#14 Larry

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Posted 27 March 2013 - 02:55 PM

but what if cthulhu got dropped on that same deserted island you were on? you still wouldn't be able to send out an SOS? lol


if that happened, I believe I would be violated in many grotesque ways by a tentacled demon. Sorta like Japanese cartoon porn.


my theory is that we're far too stupid for any inter-galactic race to bother with, be it giant octopi, or enlightened beings of profound intelligence.

think about it

right at this moment, millions upon millions of people are at their computers/mobile phones right now browsing picture after picture of cats doing something dumb.

does that sound like something an advanced race of super intelligent beings would want to contact? they'd travel millions of light years just to communicate to someone who spends 8 hours of his day staring at 9gag? Really?

#15 kimkinnison

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Posted 29 March 2013 - 12:02 AM

going on nat geo and history channel specials alone, No. 10 seems to be the fave reason among alien-loving humans. maybe it's the prospect of having someone looking over us that is appealing. someone/something involved but aloof, which would explain the elusiveness.

what about hp lovecraft's cthulhu mythos, wherein an alien life form is simply hibernating on earth, waiting for the right time to reappear.


This is kooky science but I think we could be missing out on something if we leave out the close encounter witnesses. A lot of startling concepts have been put forward by this group of people. I have to admit that not all of what they have to say can be easily authenticated.

BTW don't forget the night gaunts and imps that come and go from another plane/dimension/reality.

The concept of "folding" space and time and using it as a means to travel, IMO is the only viable means of exploring space. Current propulsion technologies simply won't cut it.


I think people will still attempt to do it even if it means not getting there before millions of years pass on earth. We don't even need wormholes. Sleeper and generation ships have been suggested in the previous century. And if we do find ETIs, we could even us William Gibson's idea of transmitting people there (Gibson suggested joint interstellar virtual reality interface with whatever the extraterrestrials used as an internet).

Anyway, great post. The best I've read here since, well, ever :D

#16 dungeonbaby

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 07:45 PM

if that happened, I believe I would be violated in many grotesque ways by a tentacled demon. Sorta like Japanese cartoon porn.



so..."scientists have discovered two new species of strange-looking microbes that live in the bellies of termites, and they've named the creatures Cthulhu and Cthylla, an ode to H.P. Lovecraft's pantheon of horrible monsters."

your alien hentai fantasy may come true yet. lol.

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#17 Harangody

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 12:32 AM

There's no intelligent life down here. Posted Image

#18 CruzRig

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 07:58 PM

Or they are in the "other" dimension. :)

#19 Pussy Breaker

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Posted 29 May 2013 - 12:12 AM

Movie's and fiction

#20 oscartamaguchiblackface

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Posted 04 June 2013 - 02:24 AM

Who knows maybe aliens have been trying to contact us but we're just not on the same frequency as them. We also have SETI (Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence) but the aliens just haven't received our messages because they are on a different frequency.




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